NOTE : UPDATE BELOW 

JAN 22 2012 

THE TIMING MODEL ABOVE IS BASED ON SEVERAL CYCLES ALL OF WHICH TEND TO 

BE AVERAGED OUT .THERE ARE TIMES WHEN SOME CYCLE POINT LOWER YET OTHERS

POINT HIGHER AND GIVE A MIXED MESSAGE . YET LOOKING THROUGH MANY OF THE CYCLES

I AM FINDING THEY ARE ALL GIVING ME THE SAME PICTURE . IT IS FOR THIS REASON

I AM STICKING TO MY BEARISH VIEW .HERE ARE A FEW EXAMPLES .

NOTE THE MINOR LOW DUE FEB 13TH AND THE TIMING MODEL LOW DUE FEB 10THS 

ALSO A HIGH DUE FEB 28 TH AND THE TIMING MODEL HIGH FEB 24TH 

RED IS CYCLES CHART BLUE IS DOW ( MAY 2 2011 TO DATE )

THIS CYCLE IS BEARISH FROM FEB 28 TO AUGUST 9TH 2012 

THIS IS A LARGER CYCLE 

THIS PEAKS MARCH 5TH ( HENCE FEB 24 TO MARCH 5 WILL BE IMPORTANT )

THIS CYCLE IS BEARISH INTO NOVEMBER 2 2012

SHORTER TERM CYCLE 

THIS IS JUST A ZOOMED IN PICTURE  OF THE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE .

ITS NEXT LOW IS DUE FEB 10TH ( NOTE FEB 13TH MINOR LOW ABOVE )

ALSO NOTE : THIS GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION 

WHICH MAY BE FORMING NOW ( WE WONT UNTIL IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS )

THIS CYCLE ALSO BLEND WELL WITH THE ABOVE AND CALLS FOR A PEAK FEB 24TH 

AND A LOW NOV 8TH AND AGAIN IN LATE DECEMBER OF THIS YEAR 

MORE OF THE SAME , MARCH 6TH 2012 HIGH AND A NOV 27TH 2012 LOW .

THE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE YET USING A 23 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO 

SMOOTH OUT THE SHORT TERM SWINGS .

THIS SHORT TERM CYCLE HAS YET TO PROVE ITSELF TO ME YET IS WORTH NOTING 

IT IS PEAKING NOW AND POINTS LOWER INTO AUGUST 

THE POINT IM TRYING TO MAKE IS WE HAVE A SERIES OF CYCLES ALL BEGINNING TO TURN LOWER 

AND MY EARLY MARCH THEY WILL ALL BE IN DIFFERING DEGREES OF THERE DOWN CYCLES 

NOW LETS LOOK AT THE INDICATORS .

ILL KEEP IT SIMPLE 

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE JUST A MADE ITS 3RD LOWER HIGH ON JAN 19TH 

AND TURNED DOWN JAN 20TH AS THE DOW WENT UP TO A NEW HIGH .

ON THE SURFACE THIS APPEARS TO BE A TRIANGLE FORMATION YET GIVEN 

THE NEXT CYCLE LOW IS DUE FEB 10TH 13TH MY BIAS IS THIS TRIANGLE WILL FAIL .

BOTTOM LINE : FAILED TRIANGLES ARE BEARISH !

THE DOW 

I WAS WRONG ON MY PRICE PROJECTION YET THE INTERNALS STILL LOOK BEARISH AS 

FAR AS IM CONCERNED . THE BREAK OF 12630 NOW SIGNALS A TEST OF 13218 . SUPPORT 

SITS AT 12227 . IDEALLY WE WILL SEE A DECLINE UNFOLD INTO MID FEB WHICH IMPLIES 

A CHOPPY MARKET OVER THE COMING WEEKS .

I WILL BE HEADING BACK TO WORK EARLY MONDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF TOUCH FOR 

ABOUT 12 DAYS . 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 21 2012

SUNDAYS UPDATE WILL BE POSTED IN THE LATE AFTER NOON 

THIS IS JUST A FOCUS ON APPLE , SOMETHING TO THINK OF 

KEEP AN EYE ON APPLE OVER THE COMING WEEKS .

THIS STOCK APPEARS TO BE IN A MINOR WAVE 4 OF A FINAL 5TH WAVE PEAK 

SUPPORT SITS IN THE 410 - 404 PRICE AREA . A BREAK BELOW 404 SIGNALS A TEST

OF 337 ( I EXPECT THE 404 LEVEL TO HOLD FOR NOW ). RESISTANCE SITS 

FROM 337 TO 446 . IDEALLY THIS STOCK WILL DECLINE BELOW 410 HOLD THE 404 SUPPORT

AND THEN THRUST UPWARDS ABOVE 437 AND TEST THE 446 LEVEL INTO LATE FEB EARLY MARCH 

FROM THERE I WOULD EXPECT THIS STOCK TO UNDER GO A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE .

SEE CHART BELOW FOR THE LARGER WAVE COUNT .

BOTTOM LINE :WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SET UP HERE .

APPLE MONTHLY 

I REALIZE THIS COMPANY MAKES VERY GOOD PRODUCTS AND WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF GOOD THINGS 

THEY DO THE WAVE COUNT SAYS WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A LONG TERM BEAR MARKET UNFOLD

IN THIS ISSUE .

JAN 19 2012

IF YOU SOLD THE CLOSE TODAY YOUR RISK IS MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE RANGE I WAS LOOKING FOR 

WAS 12594.24 TO 12630.03

TODAY'S CLOSE AT 12623.98 LEAVE NO ROOM FOR ERROR .

EITHER IM RIGHT OR IM WRONG .

A BREAKDOWN NEXT WEEK OR EVEN TOMORROW BELOW TODAY'S LOW WILL BE IMPORTANT 

AS IT WOULD GIVE SOME CONFIRMATION THAT A SHORT TERM TOP IS AT HAND .

12563.58 IS NOW KEY SUPPORT AND MUST BE BROKEN .

SEE GOOG CHART BELOW 

GOOGLE

60 MINUTE CHART

THIS STOCK PEAKED WITH THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE AND IS NOW DOWN A LITTLE OVER 13 PERCENT 

SINCE ITS HIGH ON JAN 4TH 2012 

ONE TRICK TO TRADING EARNINGS IS YOU TRADE TO THE BULLISH SIDE COMING INTO THE EARNINGS RELEASE 

AND THEN YOU SELL JUST AS THE NEWS IS ABOUT TO  OR IS BEING RELEASED . YOU DO NOT WAIT TO FIND OUT 

YOU SIMPLY EXIT AS THE NEWS IS ABOUT TO BE RELEASED . MANY TIMES YOU WILL SEE INDIVIDUAL 

STOCKS RUN UP RIGHT INTO THEIR EARNINGS RELEASE AND THEN SELL OFF ON THE NEWS WEATHER GOOD

OR BAD . IF THE NEWS IS BAD AS WAS THE CASE FOR GOOG ( THE NEWS REALLY WAS NOT THAT BAD )

THE STOCK GETS PUMMELED IF THE NEWS IS GOOD MANY TIMES YOU STILL SEE A DROP .

SO JUST SELL RIGHT INTO THE LAST MINUTE AND DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT AND MOVE ON .

BOTTOM LINE : GOOGLE WAS IN A DOWN TREND BEFORE THE NEWS 

THE ONLY TIME YOU WOULD HOLD THROUGH A RELEASE DATE IS IF YOU KNOW THAT THE MARKET 

IS IN A BULLISH CYCLE . TODAY THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO SELL THE CLOSE AND BOY DID THEY 

ON THIS STOCK

JAN 18 2012

LOOK FOR A TOP INTO THE CLOSE ON THURSDAY 

DON'T FORGET FRIDAY IS OPTION EXPIRY 

 TARGET THE DOW INTO THE 12165-12036  RANGE .

NOTE TIMING MODEL ABOVE IS BEARISH FROM JAN 27 TO FEB 10

ALSO NOTE TIMING MODEL IS GENERALLY BULLISH INTO FEB 24TH 

BOTTOM LINE : THE NEXT 10 TRADING DAYS SHOULD BE BEARISH .

THE 10 ADVANCE DECLINE LINE COMPARED TO THE DOW LEAVES A LITTLE ROOM

FOR A TOP ON JAN 25TH AND THE TIMING MODEL SHOWS THE NEXT TURN JAN 27TH.

HENCE MY INTENT TO TURN BEARISH ON TOMORROWS CLOSE HAS RISKS YET

STANDS.  WE MAY HAVE TO RIDE THROUGH SOME SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT BEFORE

ANY DECLINE UNFOLDS .THIS IS THE RISK I SEE AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE .

BOTTOM LINE : IT IS BETTER WHEN EVERYTHING LINES UP YET AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS 

NOT A PERFECT PICTURE . TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THOUGH THIS INDICATOR IS MAKING 

A LOWER HIGH ( ITS PEAK JAN 4TH ) AS THE DOW IS MAKING A HIGHER HIGH 

THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT TO SEE AND IS A BEARISH SIGNAL .

10 DAY TRIN 

THIS INDICATOR GAVE AN OVERBOUGHT SIGNAL ON JAN 12TH 

THIS WORKS UPSIDE DOWN , LOW READINGS ARE OVERBOUGHT AND HIGH READINGS ARE OVERSOLD

THE GENERAL RULE OF THUMB ON THIS IS ONCE YOU GET A CLOSE BELOW 1.00 YOU THEN LOOK 

FOR A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 1.00 TO GET A SELL SIGNAL .

THIS INDICATOR GAVE A SELL SIGNAL ON JAN 13.

BOTTOM LINE : THIS INDICATOR HAS ITS MOMENTS AND SHOULD BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE . BOTH ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A TOP 

JAN 17 2012

THE DOW BROKE ABOVE 12529 TODAY .

I MADE AN ERROR IN MY CHART IN THE PRECIOUS UPDATE ( I FORGOT TO INCLUDE MONDAYS HOLIDAY )

THIS PUSHES THE TIME LINE OUT 1 DAY TO THURSDAY JAN 19TH ( AND THIS IS AN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK )

I HAVE ALSO ADDED ANOTHER TIME PERIOD TO THIS SO WHAT WAS A DOUBLE TIME LINE IS NOW A TRIPLE 

TIME LINE . THIS ADDED TIME LINE BEGINS AT THE PRINT LOW ON AUG 9 2011 AND RUNS INTO THE OCT 27TH HIGH 

WHICH WAS 56 TRADING DAYS , ADDING 56 TRADING DAYS TO OCT 27 2011 YOU GET THURSDAY JAN 19 2012 

BOTTOM LINE : TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN THE SHORT TERM TOP YET I WOULD RATHER SEE HOW THE MARKET 

HOLDS UP INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TAKING A BEARISH STANCE . 

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 12 2012

THE PUETZ WINDOW CLOSED TODAY .

MY INTENSION TO TO TAKE ON BEARISH POSITIONS WEDNESDAY JAN 18TH AND THEN ADD TO THEM ON FRIDAY 

FOLLOWING OPTIONS EXPIRY ..( FRIDAYS CLOSE , JAN 20 2012 )

THE KEY PRICE IM LOOKING AT IS 12594.24-12630.03 . 

IF THE DOW IS NOT INTO THIS  RANGE INTO WEDNESDAYS CLOSE ILL TAKE AN INITIAL BEARISH POSITION ON THE CLOSE( WED )

IF IT JUST TESTS THIS PRICE AREA IN THE COMING DAYS I WILL TAKE A BEARISH POSITION AS LONG AS THE DOW IS 

ABOVE 12529.

BOTTOM LINE : THE 10 DAY TRIN GAVE AN OVERBOUGHT READING ON TODAY'S CLOSE . THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

IS NOW MAKING A LOWER HIGH AS THE DOW IS CLOSING AT A NEW HIGH ( SLIGHT BEARISH DIVERGENCE )

TIMING SAYS WEDNESDAY JAN 18TH FOR A TRADE ENTRY AND PRICE SAYS THE AREA SURROUNDING 12594 .

THE INITIAL DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE IS 12200 

11800 IS THIS YEARS KEY PIVOT LEVEL ( SEE CHART BELOW )

THE ATTEMPTED BEARISH TRADE BEING PUT ON THIS NEXT WEEK IS SHORT TERM IN NATURE YET IS AN ATTEMPTED LONGER

TERM POSITION TRADE . THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TIME LINE THIS YEAR .

DO NOT FORGET THERE IS HIGHER RESISTANCE LEVELS ABOVE LAST YEARS HIGHS AND IF THE MARKETS GETS MUCH 

ABOVE 12630 IT WILL SIGNAL A TEST OF THE 13036-13328 PRICE RANGE .

JAN 7 2012

THE PUETZ WINDOW CLOSES JAN 12TH . 

DOW WEEKLY 

5 WAVES DOWN AND 3 WAVES UP 

ITS TIME TO CONSIDER A TOP EVEN IF EARLY 

A CLOSE ABOVE 12455.10 NEXT WEEK WOULD NEGATE THIS 

WAVE COUNT AS I SEE IT , YET NEXT WEEK IS A FIBONACCI RATIO WEEK

SUPPORT SITS AT 11870 INTO MID FEB .

BOTTOM LINE : IM JUMPING THE GUN SHORT TERM YET STICKING TO MY 

LONGER TERM BEARISH BIAS . 

SEE BELOW 

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THIS INDICATOR IS NOW BACK INTO ITS UPPER RANGE 

THIS PEAKED JAN 4TH AND TURNED DOWN .

THE DOW MULTIPLIED BY THE US DOLLAR INDEX 

THIS CHART SHOWS 5 WAVES UP FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOWS

IF WE WANT TO GET PICKY THEN THIS IS THE TOP OF WAVE III

OF WAVE 5 WHICH IMPLIES A MINOR WAVE IV DOWN INTO FEB

FOLLOWED BY WAVE V OF 5 INTO EARLY MARCH .

EITHER WAY THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE 

AN IMPORTANT TOP IN THE MAKING .

SEE ALSO THE CHART BELOW THIS ONE FOR A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE.

DOLLAR MULTIPLIED BY THE DOW 

ILL LET THE CHART SPEAK FOR ITSELF.

THE DOW IS IN RED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART 

THE US DOLLAR INDEX IS IN BLUE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART .

THE DOW MULTIPLIED BY THE DOLLAR HAS TURNED DOWN 

FROM THE DOWN TREND LINES AT THE ONSET OF SOME OF THE STEEPEST 

DECLINES OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS AND AS NOTED ABOVE WE ARE 

IN AT A MINIMUM AT THE FINAL THROWS OF MINOR III OF WAVE 5

YET CONSIDERING THE TREND LINE RESISTANCE AND THE CONSTANT 

MOVE UP WE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO BE ALL OF WAVE 5 .

BOTTOM LINE : MY BIAS IS FOR A STOCK MARKET PEAK MID FEB TO EARLY MARCH 

THIS CHART MAY JUST LEAD AS HAPPENED IN 2007 YET MY CONCERN IS 

THAT THE STOCK MARKET HAS JUST PEAKED AS OF FRIDAY JAN 6 2012 .

ODD STATISTIC FOR YOU:

 IF YOU BOUGHT THE US DOLLAR AND DOW ON THE CLOSE OF MARCH 2008 

YOU WOULD BE UP LESS THAN 1 PERCENT ON THE DOW 

AND UP 13.25 PERCENT ON THE US DOLLAR INDEX .

KEEP IN MIND : PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS 

I TRY MY BEST TO GIVE YOU SOMETHING TO WORK WITH AND I TRY HARD 

TO SHOW CONSISTENCIES YET THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES WHEN TRADING

PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING BEFORE RISKING YOUR MONEY 

LASTLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPANDING TRIANGLE FORMATION FROM THE 

PEAK OF WAVE 3 TO DATE 

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND 

JAN 3 2012

CLICK ON PIVOT LEVELS LINK FOR THE KEY LEVELS IN 2012

I UPDATED THE  PIVOT DATA TODAY .

TOMORROW WE BEGIN A NEW 36 TRADE CYCLE .

THE CRASH CYCLE ( MARKET TURN CYCLE IS ENDING )

THE NEXT TURN DATE SURROUNDS JAN 10TH 12TH ( IDEALLY A LOW )

THE TIMING MODEL SHOWN BELOW IS A 23 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF THE 

MODEL OVER THE PAST 1 1/2 YEARS . I BLEW IT THIS YEAR TURNING BEARISH

YET THE BULLISH CALL IN AUGUST I SHOULD HAVE STUCK WITH .

BOTTOM LINE : A HIGHER MARKET INTO MID FEB TO LATE MARCH SHOULD BRING 

A DECLINE INTO NOVEMBER.

DEC 26 2011

TONIGHT'S UPDATE IS ALL ABOUT CYCLES

CURRENTLY THE MARKET INTERNALS ARE OVERBOUGHT 

LETS BEGIN THIS NEXT YEAR WITH A FEW ODD CONSIDERATIONS.

IM NOT A BIG FOLLOWER OF THE DECENNIAL PATTERN YET MANY ARE 

SO LETS STUDY IT . THE GENERAL RULE OF THUMB THAT I HAVE INTERPRETED

IS THE YEARS ENDING IN 2 TEND TO BE LOW POINTS . TO ADD TO THIS 

YOU LOOK FOR  A LOW FOLLOWING A 10 YEAR LOW AND YOU LOOK FOR A 

LOW 5 YEARS FOLLOWING A HIGH . LASTLY 12 YEARS 3 MONTHS TO 12 YEARS

8 MONTHS FROM A MAJOR TOP YOU LOOK FOR A LOW . 

BEFORE I SHOW THE DECENNIAL CYCLE ILL SAY THIS .

BOTTOM LINE : IF YOU THINK OBAMA WILL BE RE ELECTED THEN YOU SHOULD HAVE A BULLISH 

BIAS INTO THE ELECTIONS IF YOU THINK HE WONT BE RE ELECTED THEN YOU SHOULD HAVE A 

BEARISH BIAS . IM NOT GOING TO FORCE MY POLITICAL VIEWS ON THIS ONLY GOING TO STATE 

THE FOLLOWING . IF THE BASICS OF TIMING HOLD TRUE THEN OBAMA WILL LOOSE THE ELECTION

AND THE STOCK MARKET WILL LEAD US TO THE OUTCOME NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND .

THE DECENNIAL PATTERN .

I BORROWED ALLOT OF THE DATA BEING USED FROM VARIOUS WEB PAGES AND FILLED IN THE DATA NOT AVAILABLE

FROM THE MID 1990'S TO DATE . THIS DATA SET BEGINS BACK IN THE MID 1880'S AND RUNS INTO LAST YEAR SINCE

THIS YEAR IS NOT YET OVER WITH . BASICALLY WHAT THIS IS IS HOW EACH YEAR HAS MOVED PERCENTAGE WISE

IN EACH DECADE . YEARS ENDING IN 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0 . THEN EACH AVERAGED OUT AND AN AVERAGE PERCENTAGE 

FOR EACH YEAR IS SHOWN ON THIS CHART .

LETS LOOK AT THE DATA SET.

YEARS ENDING IN 2 TEND TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR FLAT TO SLIGHTLY UP ( 1.09 % GAIN ON AVERAGE )

YEARS ENDING IN 5 TEND TO BE THE STRONGEST UP WITH AN AVERAGE 20 PLUS PERCENTAGE GAIN .

YEARS ENDING IN 7 TEND TO BE DOWN . 

SO LETS CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING .

2002 WAS A DOWN YEAR 2003 2004 2005 ALL WERE BULLISH 

2007 WAS ACTUALLY AN UP YEAR AND THIS IS WHERE I BEGIN TO QUESTION THIS .

2008 WAS DOWN 2009 WAS UP 2010 WAS UP AND 2011 EVEN IF FLAT LOOKS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR

WITH A SLIGHT UPWARDS BIAS . SO I ASK MYSELF THIS IN ADVANCE , IS THIS PATTERN INVERTING ???

SEE THE INVERTED CHART BELOW .

THE DECENNIAL PATTERN INVERTED .

FROM A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE FROM THE DATA I'VE SEEN THERE HAS NEVER IN HISTORY BEEN A DOWN

YEAR FOR THE YEAR ENDING IN 5 .

BENNER BUSINESS CYCLE .

THE BENNER BUSINESS CYCLE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD GOING BACK TO 1914 .

IT SHOULD BE RESPECTED AT THIS JUNCTURE .

THIS CYCLES CALLS SINCE 1949:

LOWS:1949.1957.1967.1975.1987.1995.2003.2011.2021.

HIGHS: 1956,1964,1973,1983,1991,2000,2010,2018..

BOTTOM LINE : TAKING THIS ON FACE VALUE 2010 SHOULD HAVE BEEN A HIGH POINT AND IF YOU LOOK AROUND 

THE WORLD THIS YEAR WAS NOT A GOOD YEAR FOR STOCKS .

2011 WAS THE CYCLE LOW AND THE NEXT CYCLE HIGH IS DUE IN THE YEAR 2018 .

A CHART OF THE DOW IS SHOWN BELOW FOR PERSPECTIVE .

DOW 

THE ACTUAL DOW HIGHS AND LOWS:

LOW'S,1949,1957,1966,1974,1987,1995,2002....2003  2011 BAD WORLD MARKETS .2021

HIGH'S:1956,1965,1973,1983,??,,1991 BREAK OUT UP . 2000 .2010 ?? 2018

THIS LEAVES US WITH A MIXED PICTURE I UNDERSTAND THAT .

MY POINT THOUGH IS WE NEED TO CONSIDER EVERYTHING AS WE ENTER 2012 .

MY TIMING MODELS SHOWN BELOW ARE  FULL OF INFORMATION AND TO DATE 

IM NOT CONVINCED WHICH IS THE CORRECT VIEW SO ILL SHOW BOTH AND WE 

WILL HAVE TO ADOPT ONE OR THE OTHER AS THE YEAR BEGINS AND FOR BETTER

OR WORSE I HAVE TO ADMIT IM GOING INTO THIS YEAR WITH A LONGER TERM 

BEARISH BIAS INTO AT LEAST APRIL YET STILL MUST STAY BEARISH INTO THE LATEST

OF FEB 2013 . SO HERE GOES WITH TIMING .

THIS FIRST MODEL TENDS TO CORRELATE WITH THE ELECTION CYCLE FROM WHAT I HAVE READ

YET IT IS NOT BASED ON THE ELECTION CYCLE AT ALL .

THE NEXT TURN IS EARLY JANUARY AND AS YOU CAN SEE WE ARE EXPERIENCING AN INVERSION 

WHICH I DO HAVE A FEW PROBLEMS WITH . YET THE LARGER PICTURE IS A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT 

FROM MID TO LATE FEBRUARY INTO AUGUST  FOLLOWED BY A STRONG TREND UPWARDS .

THIS OVERALL WOULD IMPLY AN UPWARD BIAS FOR 2012 AND A RE ELECTED OBAMA .

THE NEXT MODEL .

THIS IS A 2 YEAR CYCLE 

THIS CYCLE IS BEST AND MOST ACCURATE HISTORICALLY ON ITS RIGHT SIDE ( THE TIME FROM JULY 19 TO FEB 2013 )

THE MAIN THEME HERE IS A STRONG TREND SHOULD FOLLOW FROM JULY 19 TO FEB 2013 .

BOTTOM LINE : A HIGH IN MID JULY WOULD BE THE SET UP FOR A STRONG DECLINE AND WOULD IMPLY OBAMA 

NOT GETTING RE ELECTED .

A LOW POINT ON JULY 19 IMPLIES A VERY STRONG RALLY INTO FEB 2013 .

HISTORICALLY THIS CYCLE IS STRONGLY BEARISH JULY 19 TO FEB 2013 .

ODD BALL CYCLES 

NOT ENOUGH HISTORICAL DATA TO PROVE THIS ONE OUT YET IT IS SOMETHING IM FOLLOWING 

DOW IS IN BLUE THE CYCLE IN PINK .

MORE ODD BALL CYCLES TO CONSIDER 

THIS LARGER CYCLE PEAKS IN MARCH THEN TURNS DOWN INTO LATE 2012 

THIS CYCLE CORRELATES WITH A 12 YEAR 8 MONTHS LOW FROM THE MARCH 2000 TOP IN THE NASDAQ AND SP 500

DOW IN RED CYCLES IN BLACK .

DATES ON THE BOTTOM .

NOTE ON THIS CYCLE PAIR A TOPPING PROCESS FROM EARLY MARCH INTO JUNE 

THIS IS PART OF THE SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT THAT IS CALLED FOR .

THE TREND FROM AUGUST INTO OCT NOV IS STRONGLY BEARISH ( STRONGLY ONE DIRECTION BETTER SAID )

ASSUMING WE JUST SAW AN INVERSION AS NOTED ABOVE AND THE LARGER CYCLES ARE DOMINATING 

THE SHORT TERM CYCLES.

THIS BECOMES 2ND CHOICE FOR MY MARKET TIMER THIS YEAR .

TO EXPLAIN ALL THE NOTES IN HERE IS FOR ANOTHER DAY 

BOTTOM LINE : A MARKET TOP WOULD BE CALLED FOR AS EARLY AS FEB 15TH TO AS LATE AS FEB 24TH 

A DOWN TREND WOULD BE IN EFFECT YET EXPECT A  SIDEWAYS TO DOWN MARKET 

THE STRONGEST DOWN PHASE FROM AUGUST 14TH INTO OCT 28TH 2012.

LASTLY IF THE MARKET GAPPED DOWN STRONGLY ON NOV 12 2012 ( 11/12/12 ) I WOULD BUY THE OPEN

A LOW POINT IN SURROUNDING JULY 2ND IS AN IMPORTANT 

A TECHNICAL BULL MARKET PHASE BEGINS SURROUNDING JUNE 5TH 

THIS POST WILL BE LEFT HERE ALL YEAR LONG .

DEC 25 2011

UPDATE TO BE POSTED MONDAY DEC 26TH MID DAY 

THE MARKET IS BECOMING  OVERBOUGHT.

EXPECT A 28 PERCENT SWING FROM HIGH TO LOW IN 2012 AT A MINIMUM.

DEC 19 2011

LOOKING AT WHAT I CONSIDER THE BROAD MARKET TODAY .

THIS IS A CHART OF THE MAJOR INDICES ALL COMBINED .

THE BLUE MOVING AVERAGE IS THE 40 WEEK SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE .

THE RED TREND LINE CONNECTING THE LOWS OF WEEK OF JULY 6 2009

JUNE 28 2010 RAN INTO THE RECENT HIGH ON DEC 5TH ( WEEKLY BARS )

THIS SAME AREA WAS WHERE THE MARKET TESTED THE 40 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE 

AND REJECTED IT . THIS WEEK IS A QUESTIONABLE TURN WEEK AND AS NOTED FROM 

THE CRASH CYCLES IN PRIOR POSTS MY BIAS IS THIS IS AN ACCELERATION TIME LINE

AND NOT A REVERSAL TIME LINE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE MARKET HAS NO BUSINESS GOING BACK ABOVE THE WEEK OF DEC 5 HIGH 

ANY TIME SOON  .

DOW

THIS IS THE DOW 60 MINUTE CHART 

THIS INDEX APPEARS TO BE TRACING OUT A VERY SLOPPY IMPULSE WAVE DOWN.

A 2 DAY BOUNCE INTO THE CLOSE ON DEC 21 IS THE BEST I CAN GIVE IT .

AND CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE DOWN CYCLE IM

NOT GOING TO ATTEMPT TO BUY INTO ANY STRENGTH AT THIS JUNCTURE .

SHORT TERM RESISTANCE SITS IN THE RANGE OF 11934-11974 .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

DEC 18 2011

IM HOME SICK WITH A NASTY VIRUS SO PARDON THE SHORT UPDATE THIS WEEKEND.

ILL FINISH THIS UP FOLLOWING MONDAYS CLOSE . 

ILL BEGIN WITH THE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE ( TAKE A LOOK AT IT )

AND ILL POINT OUT THE PRESENT CRASH CYCLE . BOTH CALL FOR A CONTINUED DOWN TREND

THIS NEXT WEEK . A FAKE OUT MONDAY IS POSSIBLE AND ILL POINT OUT THE KEY LEVELS 

TO WATCH OUT FOR .

BOTTOM LINE : NEXT WEEK BEGINS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS DOWN CYCLE 

HOW DO WE KNOW IF THIS IS GOING TO FAIL ??

PIVOT DATA .

THIS IS A DAILY PIVOT CHART OF THE DOW .

MONDAYS PIVOT SITS AT 11884.63 ( ABOVE IT IS BULLISH , BELOW IS BEARISH )

THE PURPLE = 10 DAY PIVOT AT 12028.05 ,KEY RESISTANCE MUST HOLD OR IMPLIES A BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE

THE RED = 200 DAY PIVOT AT 11933.66 , LONGER TERM KEY RESISTANCE 

YELLOW = 50 DAY PIVOT AT 11807.93 , KEY SUPPORT AS NOTED ON THE CHART .

BOTTOM LINE : WHEN A GROUP OF MOVING AVERAGES AND OR IN THIS CASE PIVOT LEVELS

ALL CONVERGE YOU PREPARE FOR A POWERFUL MOVEMENT WHEN THEY TOUCH AND OR 

CROSS EACH OTHER .HOW YOU TRADE ON THIS IS SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PRICE ACTION .

A BREAK ABOVE 12028.05 WOULD GIVE A BUY SIGNAL . A BREAK BELOW 11807.93

GIVES A REPEAT SELL SIGNAL .

SEE YOU MONDAY 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

DEC 11 2011

NOTE : TIMING MODEL ABOVE IS UPDATED AS OF DEC 9 2011

WE ARE ENTERING A SHORT TERM CYCLE PEAK AS WE BEGIN THIS NEXT WEEK.

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS NOW INTO ITS UPPER RANGE .

THE NEXT MAJOR TURN POINT SURROUNDS JAN 8TH 2012 .

DOW

SHORT TERM SUPPORT SITS IN THE RANGE OF :12053-11938 FOR THE WEEK . A BREAK BELOW 

THIS RANGE ( 11938 ) IS NEEDED TO GIVE US A BEARISH SIGNAL . A FAILURE TO GET BELOW THIS 

LOWER LEVEL OR AN ADVANCE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK WILL SIGNAL STRENGTH INTO THE JAN 8TH 2012

TIME FRAME .

THE CHART BELOW IS THE TYPICAL TRADING PATTERN OF THIS PRESENT CYCLE SINCE IT BEGAN 

ON OCT 31 2011. THE BLACK BARS ARE THE DOW OCT 31 TO DATE . THE BLUE AND RED BARS ARE

HOW THIS SAME CYCLE PLAYED OUT IN BOTH 1929 AND 1987 .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN TRACING OUT A VERY SIMILAR TREND IN TERMS OF 

THE TURN DATES AND SORT TERM TRENDS . THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS INTO ITS 

UPPER RANGE AND WE ARE COMING INTO A SHORT TERM TI9MING MODEL TURN DATE ON 

TUESDAY . THE RISK OF A STRONG DECLINE CANNOT BE IGNORED AT THIS JUNCTURE

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW 

THE RISK ON A BEARISH TRADE AT THIS JUNCTURE COMES FROM THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR WHICH 

IS STILL GIVING AN OVERSOLD READING . IN A TRUE BEAR MARKET THE INDICATORS ARE SOMEWHAT USELESS

AT TIMES, SO I WONT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS INDICATOR OTHER THEN TO NOTE THAT A RALLY THIS NEXT 

WEEK WOULD ARGUE THAT THE PRESENT CRASH PHASE OF THE CYCLE ABOVE IS INVERTING AND THAT WE 

WOULD THEN KEY OFF OF THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR IN EARLY JANUARY ALONG WITH THE 10 ADVANCE DECLINE 

LINE BEFORE TAKING A LONGER TERM BEARISH TRADE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE TREND IS DOWN WORDS YET VERY SHORT TERM WE WANT TO SEE PROOF AND THAT 

IMPLIES THE KEY SUPPORTS NOTED ABOVE NEED TO BE BROKEN .

NOV 30 2011

THE TIMING MODEL IS UPDATED AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE ( SEE ABOVE )

THE BOUNCE FOR THIS WEEK HAS MOVED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THEN EXPECTED

11953 IS NOW SUPPORT THAT WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT FOLLOWING NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT TURN DATE IS A RANGE OF DEC 6TH 12TH .I WOULD CONSIDER TAKING A BEARISH

STANCE DEC 8TH YET AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE I DON'T SEE ANY EXTREMES IN THE INDICATORS

TO NOTE .

BOTTOM LINE : I DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE UPSIDE ACTION OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL

EXPECT TO SEE A CHOPPY SIDEWAYS MARKET TO BRING THE INDICATORS TO A MORE OVERBOUGHT

READING . 

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE :

THE CHART BELOW IS THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF THE DAILY ADVANCERS MINUS DECLINERS

COMPARED TO THE DOW . THE RED LINE IS WHERE THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE WOULD COME 

BACK TO THE 0 LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY AT MINUS 463 . THIS LEAVES THE DOW TECHNICALLY

IN A BULLISH POSITION . 

BOTTOM LINE : WE DO NOT KNOW HOW HIGH PRICES WILL GO WE ONLY KNOW THIS INDICATOR 

TENDS TO MOVE IN A RANGE ( LIKE AN OSCILLATOR ) AND ITS BIAS SHOULD BE UP.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW DEC 1,2011

NOV 24 2011

NOTE: TIMING MODEL ABOVE .A RALLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED

FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER DECLINE . 

HAPPY THANKS GIVING ,SEE YOU FRIDAY 

NOV 21 2011

TRYING TO COVER ALLOT OF GROUND TODAY , HOPE YOU 

FIND THE INFORMATION EDUCATIONAL.

I HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS LONG TERM INDICATOR IN A WHILE

I HAVE IT POSTED BELOW ON JUNE 19TH AS WELL AS AUG 8TH 

SO IF YOU LOOK THERE YOU WILL SEE THE DETAILS OF IT 

THE MAIN THEME OF THIS IS ONCE YOU SEE AN EXTREME OVERSOLD

READING YOU LOOK FOR A MOVE ABOVE THE 0 LINE AT A MINIMUM

AND FROM OVERBOUGHT EXTREMES YOU LOOK FOR A MINIMUM 

MOVE BACK BELOW THE 0 LINE , OVER THE PAST 78 YEARS IT HAS NEVER

FAILED TO GO BACK BELOW THE 0 LINE AND UNTIL IT DOES I MUST 

STAY LONG TERM BEARISH THE STOCK INDEXES .

THE RED CIRCLE IS WHERE THIS INDICATOR STANDS AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE.

THIS INDICATOR IS VERY SLOW .

NOTE: SEE THE RUN UP FROM THE DEC 1974 LOW TO THE DEC 1976 HIGH ?

THAT WAS A MAJOR BOTTOM IN STOCK PRICES AND YET THIS INDICATOR 

STILL CAME BACK . ( NEXT CHART BELOW )

THIS IS THE SAME CHART ABOVE YET ZOOMED INTO TO SHOW THE MOVE UP FROM 2009 TO DATE 

THIS IS OVERLAID ON TOP OF THE RUN UP FROM 1974 TO 1976 AND THE DROP BACK DOWN INTO 1978

TO SUM THIS UP ITS JUST A VERY SLOW OSCILLATOR AND DOES NOT TELL YOU HOW FAR PRICE WILL 

DECLINE IT ONLY GIVES YOU A GUIDE AS TO THE MARKET TREND FROM A LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE .

IF YOU NOTICE THE MARCH 1938 AND MARCH 1939 LOWS AS WELL AS THE DEC 1974 LOW AND THE 

MARCH 2009 LOW YOU CAN ALSO SEE THESE WERE ALL EXTREME READINGS ( ABOVE )

SINCE IM USING THIS AS A GUIDE I OVERLAID THE 1974-1978 TIME PERIOD TO GIVE ME AN IDEA

OF HOW LONG THIS COULD TAKE , THAT IS ALL IT IS FOR .

NOW YOU CAN SEE THIS HAS NOT TRACED OUT THE SAME PATTERN YET IT HAS TRAVELED 

IN THE GENERAL TRENDS BOTH UP AND DOWN AT ABOUT THE SAME DEGREE OF MOVEMENT ,

THE EXAMPLE IS LOOK WHERE THIS SITS TODAY , THE RED LINE BEING THE PRESENT MARKET 

THE BLUE LINE BEING THE MOVE FROM 1974 TO 1978 ( DATES ABOVE AND BELOW )

F0R THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THIS SITE FOR A WHILE YOU HAVE ALREADY

READ HOW I CALCULATED THE TIME FRAME FOR A LOW FROM MID 2012 TO AS LATE AS FEB 2013

THIS INDICATOR IF YOU NOTICE DOES SHOW A POTENTIAL LOW SURROUNDING MAY 2012 

AND AGAIN IN NOV 2012 . BASICALLY THIS ALL BLENDS FOR A LONGER TERM BEARISH 

MARKET .

BOTTOM LINE : THE LONG TERM INDICATORS ARE STILL BEARISH .

THE SHORT TERM 

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TIMING MODEL AND THE PRESENT CRASH CYCLE WHICH SO FAR 

APPEAR TO BE WORKING , WE HAVE A LOW DUE BY MONDAY YET TECHNICALLY WITH THANKSGIVING 

ON THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE ON GUARD FOR A BOUNCE TO BEGIN AT ANY TIME .

BOTTOM LINE : A BOUNCE IS DUE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK INTO DEC 6TH 10TH AND TO ADD TO THIS 

WE SHOULD SEE A STRONG DECLINE UN FOLD RIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS .

I REALIZE THIS GOES FAR AN AWAY AGAINST THE SEASONAL BIAS . YET TIME IS TIME AND THAT'S WHAT 

WE LIVE WITH IN TERMS OF TIMING 

SHORT TERM INDICATORS .

THE SHORT TERM INDICATOR IS NOW INTO AN OVERSOLD READING 

NOTHING EXTREME YET WE SHOULD TAKE WARNING THAT A BOUNCE IS DUE ( THINK OF TIMING MODEL )

20 DAY OSCILLATOR 

READING BELOW .45 ARE OVERSOLD READINGS YET WE MUST ALSO GAUGE THE SHORT TERM READINGS ABOVE 

AND COMBINE THEM ( IN OUR THOUGHTS ) THE SUM OF THE 2 ARE GIVING US ANOTHER WARNING THAT ANY HARD 

DOWN DAY COMING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A STRONG BOUNCE .

LASTLY WE SHOULD CONSIDER THE :

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE .

I LAST POSTED THIS ON OCT 30TH .

SO WHAT IS IT SAYING TODAY ?

I EXPLAINED BACK ON OCT 30TH 

THIS HAS HIT PLUS 800 3 TIMES THIS YEAR AND THEN FALLEN BACK

TO NEGATIVE 400 EACH TIME

MY CONCLUSION WAS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A MOVE TO AT LEAST MINUS 400.

YES THERE IS LOWER LEVELS YET TODAY THIS INDICATOR CLOSED AT MINUS 416

A MOVE TO MINUS 600 IN THE COMING DAYS WOULD ONLY BRING THE SHORTER TERM INDICATOR

INTO A MUCH MOVE OVERSOLD CONDITION AND GIVE MORE FUEL FOR A SHORT COVERING RALLY 

NEXT WEEK .

BOTTOM LINE : WE SHOULD BE EXPECTING  THE BOUNCE INTO DEC 6TH 10TH .

10 DAY TRIN 

THIS INDICATOR YOU USE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 10 ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THIS INDICATOR HAS YET TO TURN DOWN ( IT GOES UP AS THE MARKET FALLS SO 

LOOK AT IT FROM A BACKWARDS POINT OF VIEW )

LOOK AT THE 7 TRADE DAY TOP TO TOP COUNTS ON THIS . IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY

CONSISTENT SO I WANT TO DEAL WITH IT SINCE TODAY WAS ALSO A 7 TRADE TOP 

TO TOP COUNT FROM NOV 10TH .

NOTE THE DATES THEN WE WILL LOOK AT HOW THE MARKET REACTED FOLLOWING THEM .

KEEP IN MIND THIS IS ALL SHORT TERM TRADE THINKING HERE , I ALREADY TOUCHED ON THE 

LONGER TERM , ONCE THROUGH THIS WE WILL FOCUS ON THE CHARTS 

SEPT 13,SEPT 22,OCT3,NOV1,NOV10,TODAY,

SINCE THIS IS BASED ON THE NYSE WE USE THE SPX DOW OR NYA INDEXES .

IM USING THE DOW .

BOTTOM LINE : WE CAN ARGUE PLUS 1 DAY OR MINUS 1 DAY OR EVEN SAY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

YET TAKING THIS BASIC TIME SET IS SAYING LOOK HIGHER RIGHT NOW .

DOW 

THERE HAS BEEN AN 88 TRADE DAY SWING PERIOD WHICH HAS ALTERNATED BETWEEN

HIGHS AND LOWS THIS ALLOWS FOR A LOW AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY WHICH BLENDS

WITH THE TIMING MODEL A RUN HIGHER NEXT WEEK INTO DEC 6TH 10TH WOULD FIT 

THE CRASH PATTERN YET THE 12000 IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE BEARISH COUNT 

AND BREAK ABOVE THERE IMPLIES A TEST OF THE HIGHS INTO YEAR END .

SPX CHART BELOW.

THE MOST IMMEDIATE BEARISH PICTURE FOR THE SPX CALLS FOR A MOVE TO 1115 IN SHORT ORDER 

KEEP IN MIND ALL I SHOWED ABOVE SINCE THIS TO ME IS NOW A LOW PROBABILITY YET 

WE ARE IN A CRASH CYCLE AND SOME TIMES THE INDICATORS DO FAIL SO NOT GOING 

TO FOCUS ON THE WHAT IFS AFTER THE FACT IF THE MARKET WANTS TO FALL LET IT 

WE ARE STILL LONGER TERM BEARISH .

THE SPX HAS A VERY SLOPPY 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN , TODAY'S LOW BEING 

POINT 26 , POINT 27 SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR RELATIVE TO THE STRUCTURE 

AND TIME INVOLVED , SINCE THIS IS A 60 MINUTE CHART THIS WOULD IMPLY A VERY 

FAST COLLAPSE IN THE COMING DAY OR 2 WHICH IS WHY IT IS A RISKY CALL GIVEN 

THE SHORT TERM INDICATORS SHOWN ABOVE .

BOTTOM LINE : 1199-1202 IS THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE THAT IF HOLDS WOULD IMPLY 

A FURTHER BREAK DOWN A MOVE UP TO 1232 TOMORROW WOULD BE THE EXTREME 

END OF THIS PATTERN AND WE WOULD NEED TO SEE AN OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE 

FOLLOW FOR THIS TO WORK OUT .

THE MATH IF WE SEE A HUGE DROP IN THE COMING DAYS BASED ON TIMING ONLY .

1112.26 GO LONG 

A BREAK BELOW 1112.26 TARGETS 1021.68 

( KEEP IN MIND MY DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE ON THIS LONG TERM IS 961 )

BOTTOM LINE : THE ODDS FAVOR A RALLY NEXT WEEK THIS CHART ALLOWS FOR A BOUNCE 

THEN A FURTHER DROP , LONGER TERM I REMAIN BEARISH .

SHORT TERM , I DON'T WANT TO SAY IT BUT IT IS LOOKING BULLISH 

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE FRIDAY NOV 25TH UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING IMPORTANT DEVELOP

NOV 20 2011

I DON'T MENTION OTHER WEB SITES YET I THINK THIS ONE IS 

WORTH A LOOK AT THIS JUNCTURE : 

ITS FREE SO NO WORRIES: LINK 

NOTE: CHECK OUT THE VIDEO ABOVE IT IS FAIRLY BASIC YET WITH 

REGARDS TO THE PRESENT MARKET'S POSITION IT IS PRUDENT .

THE PURPOSE OF THE TIMING MODEL IS SIMPLE . IT IS A WAY FOR ME

TO TRACK THE MARKET AND KEEP TABS ON THE TURN DATES IN ADVANCE.

I ALSO TRY TO MAKE NOTES OF CYCLES WITH IN CYCLES IN ORDER TO 

BE ON ALERT FOR THE MAJOR TURNS WITH IN THE YEAR. 

WHAT I AM CONCERNED WITH OVER THE COMING MONTHS IS WHETHER

THIS PRESENT SHORT TERM CRASH PHASE WILL TURN OUT TO BE BULLISH

GIVING THE SEASONAL BULLISH BIAS FROM NOV 7 TO JAN 16TH .

THAT SAID UNTIL IM PROVEN WRONG I HAVE TO STAY WITH THE BEARISH

TREND UNTIL PROVEN WRONG .SHOWN BELOW IS THE ROUGH DRAFT OF 

NEXT YEARS CYCLES . WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IS WHERE WILL 

THE NOV ELECTIONS TAKE THE MARKET .

BOTTOM LINE : A RALLY INTO YEAR END WOULD NOT CHANGE MY LONGER 

TERM BEARISH VIEW ,HOWEVER IT WOULD DELAY IT . I HAVE STATED PREVIOUSLY 

I AM LOOKING FOR LOW IN THE DOW FROM 8800 TO 8000 FROM APRIL 2012-FEB 2013.

THAT STILL STANDS . THE KEY DATES ARE NOV 25TH AND DEC 6TH 10TH 

KEY LEVELS: A BREAK BACK ABOVE 12000 WILL MOST LIKELY BRING HIGHER PRICES INTO YEAR END.

A TEST OF 11510 WILL SIGNAL A FURTHER BREAK DOWN . THESE ARE THE 2 LEVELS IM WORKING WITH .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY NOV 21 .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NOV 10 2011

SEE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE .

THE DOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING A TRIANGLE FORMATION.

FAILED TRIANGLES TEND TO BE EXTREMELY BEARISH .

KEY RESISTANCE ON THE DOW : 12034.40-12144.30

A BREAK ABOVE 12187.50 SIGNALS A MOVE TO 12209 AND CHANGE 

AND ALSO IMPLIES A BREAK BACK ABOVE 12284.30 

BOTTOM LINE : THE INDICATORS ARE SIGNALING A FAILED BULLISH TRIANGLE .

A BREAK BACK BELOW 11630 IS WHAT IM EXPECTING .

NOTE : SEE NOTES ON GOLD POSTED OCT 31 AND ALSO LOOK AT TIMING MODEL

UPDATED AS OF NOV 10TH . NOVEMBER 14TH ( MONDAY IS A KEY DAY )

SCHEDULING : MY SCHEDULE IS A BIT BUSY , AT WORST ILL UPDATE NOV 20TH

AT BEST SUNDAY NOV 13TH .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

OCT 31 2011

POSTING SEVERAL CHARTS TO THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK.

MY SCHEDULE WILL BE CHANGING COME TOMORROW 

ILL WILL GIVE A BRIEF UPDATE TOMORROW GIVING A GENERAL

IDEA OF MY NEXT UPDATE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

THE CRASH PATTERN AND GLD 

THIS SAME CYCLE ALSO HAS TO BE CONSIDERED WITH THE OVERALL 

STOCK MARKET , DOW SPX ECT .

THIS IS HOW THE TREND SHOULD TRACE OUT OVER THE COMING MONTHS 

IF THIS IS TO WORK AS IT HAS IN THE PAST .

THE BLACK DOT CIRCLED IN YELLOW IS TODAY'S CLOSE ON GLD .

IM NOT TAKING ANY TRADES ON THIS AT THIS JUNCTURE . MY INTENSION

IS TO LET THIS PATTERN DEVELOP AND ENTER IN EITHER MID NOVEMBER 

OR MID DEC .

OFFICIALLY I HAVE BEARISH POSITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE HERE  WHICH WERE 

TAKEN NEAR THE TOP . ALSO I HAVE BEARISH POSITIONS IN THE ETF SPY .

BOTTOM LINE : IM GOING TO LET THIS PATTERN PROVE ME RIGHT BEFORE

ADDING ANY MORE BEARISH POSITIONS .

THE TARGET ON GLD FOR A LOW IS 127-116 

I HAVE NO TIMELINE AT THIS JUNCTURE AS TO WHEN I EXPECT THIS PRICE LEVEL TO BE HIT.

THE BEARISH CYCLE ABOVE IS A GUIDE TO HOW FAR AN EXTREME IN PRICE COULD GO IF WE WERE

TO SEE THE ENTIRE DECLINE UNFOLD WITH THE BEARISH CYCLE WE HAVE NOW ENTERED .

UNTIL WE SEE THE INITIAL MOVE INTO NOV 25TH UNFOLD WE SHOULD ALL JUST VIEW THIS 

AS A GUIDE .

BOTTOM LINE : IM BEARISH GOLD AS WELL AS THE STOCK MARKET AT THIS JUNCTURE AND 

WILL LET ALL OF MY POSITIONS RUN AND WILL RE ASSES THESE POSITIONS NEAR THE NEXT 

CYCLE TURN DATE OF NOV 14TH 

DOW

THIS IS A DAILY DOW CHART SHOWING SOME SIMPLE INDICATORS.

I DON'T WANT TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THE SHORT TERM WAVE COUNTS AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THESE INDICATORS MOVE FROM OVERBOUGHT TO OVERSOLD ALONG WITH THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE.

WHEN THEY ALL COME TOGETHER AND TIME SAYS WERE NEAR A TREND CHANGE I FIND IT MUCH 

EASIER TO LET THE TRADES RUN THERE COURSE THEN GET SWEPT AWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PRICE 

SWINGS .

BOTTOM LINE : TODAY'S DECLINE WAS EXPECTED 

LONG TERM THOUGHTS 

THE DOW SHOULD FALL INTO THE 8800-8000 RANGE BY MID NEXT YEAR TO AS LATE AS FEB 2013 

UNTIL WE GET INTO THAT TIME FRAME I WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SWING HIGHS TO TAKE

LONGER TERM BEARISH TRADES . ( SHORT TERM BULLISH TRADES ASIDE )

THIS CHART WAS LAST POSTED AUG 21 ( ITS STILL BELOW )

WAVE C WILL EQUAL WAVE A ( ASSUMING WE DID INDEED JUST TOP ) AT 8285.40

BOTTOM LINE : I STILL MUST KEEP A LONG TERM BEARISH BIAS

SPX MONTHLY

960.20 IS THE IDEAL DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE IN THE MONTH OF OCT 2012 .

TAKE NOTE OF THE 60 MONTH TURNS  SINCE 1997.

STAYING BELOW 1257.58 IS KEY 

OEX MONTHLY

KEY RESISTANCE SITS IN THE RANGE OF 563.50-581.88 

THIS RESISTANCE RANGE WAS JUST TESTED .

WE WANT TO SEE THE MARKET MOVE AWAY ( LOWER ) FROM THIS RESISTANCE BAND .

THERE IS A CYCLE LOW DUE ,BETWEEN MARCH - DEC 2012 . 

DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE SITS NEAR 440.78 WITH LOWER SUPPORT IN THE RANGE OF  388.84-384.96

BOTTOM LINE : ONCE WE SEE THE LONG TERM CYCLE LOW DUE FROM MID TO LATE 2012

WE WILL BEGIN A BULLISH CYCLE WHICH RUNS INTO 2016-2018 . I INTEND TO  TAKE AN 

OVERLY BULLISH VIEW OF THE MARKET FROM THIS CYCLE LOW DUE NEXT YEAR .

OCT 30 2011

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

WHY DOES THIS MATTER ???

TO SAVE THE CONFUSION ILL SHOW THIS INDICATOR ALONE

AND THEN OVERLAY THE DOW ON TOP OF IT .

NOTICE THIS HAS HIT PLUS 800 3 TIMES THIS YEAR AND THEN FALLEN BACK

TO NEGATIVE 400 EACH TIME . THIS INDICATOR TENDS TO TRADE IN A RANGE

WHICH IS TO SAY IT IS TO BE USED AS AN OSCILLATOR AS WELL AS A GUIDE .

THIS INDICATOR LAST PEAKED AT PLUS 800 ON OCT 18TH AND THEN MADE A 

LOWER HIGH ON THURSDAY OCT 27TH WHEN IT HIT PLUS 600 .

THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT TELL YOU HOW FAR PRICE WILL FALL IT ONLY GUIDES 

YOU TO WHEN THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS HAVE BASED ON HISTORY GONE ALL IN.  

HERE IS THE SAME CHART WITH THE DOW OVERLAID IN BLUE .

BOTTOM LINE : WHEN USING TIME TO MAKE A TRADE YOU WANT THE INDICATORS TO BE IN YOUR FAVOR 

THE TIMELINES WERE CALLING FOR A HIGH OCT 26TH 27TH ON THE DAILY CHARTS , A HIGH DUE

AT THE END OF LAST WEEK , AND FINALLY A HIGH DUE AT MONTH END , MONDAY IS THE END 

OF THIS TIME SERIES SO FROM TUESDAY ON ( THE FED MEETING ?? ) WE WANT TO SEE THE ADVANCE 

DECLINE LINE CONTINUE LOWER BACK TO ITS NORMAL LOWER RANGE AT A MINIMUM .

THIS IMPLIES A MOVE BACK TO MINUS 400 AT A MINIMUM . SINCE PRICE DOES TREND WITH THIS 

INDICATOR I MUST ASSUME THE TIME BIAS AS A TOP WHICH MEANS I HAVE TO KEEP A BEARISH 

BIAS .

5 DAY TRIN SUM

THIS INDICATOR NOW SITS AT 5.02 ,, HISTORICALLY MOVES TO OR JUST BELOW 4.00 ARE CONSIDERED

OVERBOUGHT ,( THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM INDICATOR ). I CAN SAY THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT

YET IT IS NOT A FULLY OVERBOUGHT READING AND UNTIL THE 2.23 READING FALLS OFF IT WILL BE 

DIFFICULT FOR THIS INDICATOR TO GIVE AN OVERBOUGHT READING .

10 DAY TRIN .

THESE ARE JUST INDICATORS AND SHOULD BE USED AS A GUIDE TO A TREND CHANGE

AS YOU SAW ABOVE WITH THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE THESE INTERNAL INDICATORS 

ARE LEADING AS WELL AS LAGGING  INDICATORS .

THIS 10 DAY TRIN IS STILL ON A SELL SIGNAL .

MOVES BELOW 1.00 ARE CONSIDERED OVERBOUGHT READINGS , A CLOSE BELOW 1.00

FOLLOWED BY A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 1.00 GIVE THE SELL SIGNAL .USING THIS AS A STAND 

ALONE INDICATOR WILL BURN YOU , YOU WANT TO SEE WHERE THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE 

LINE SITS AND COMBINE THE 2 TOGETHER AND THEN GAUGE THE MARKET .

ONCE THESE 2 INDICATORS ARE NEAR THERE EXTREMES YOU CAN MAKE THE DECISION ON 

WEATHER OR NOT YOUR TIME DATES ARE GIVING YOU A FAIR RISK .

EXAMPLE : SEE DOW CHART BELOW .

THE 10 ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS FADING FROM ITS RECENT PEAK AND FROM A HISTORICAL

PERSPECTIVE IT SHOULD FALL , THE 10 DAY TRIN IS ON A SELL SIGNAL AND MOVING UPWARDS 

WHICH IMPLIES MORE DOWNSIDE PRESSURE SHOULD BE COMING , THE 5 DAY TRIN SUM SAYS 

WE NEED TO WAIT 2 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE ANY VERY SHORT TERM EXTREME CAN BE 

MADE . AND THEN THERE IS THE DOW WHICH WE HAVE A WEEKLY TIME LINE WHICH CALLS 

FOR A HIGH LAST WEEK , ( DAILY WAS 26TH 27TH ,THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE PEAKED ON THE 27TH

MAKING A LOWER HIGH , AND THE MONTHLY SAYS WE HAVE UNTIL MONDAYS CLOSE WHICH 

IS INLINE WITH THE 5 DAY TRIN SUM )

BOTTOM LINE : WE ARE AT AN INFLECTION POINT , WE HAVE DONE OUR HOMEWORK ,IT IS 

NOW UP TO THE MARKET TO PROVE US RIGHT OR WRONG .

TO ADD TO THIS WE ARE NOW TESTING THE NECK LINE OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP 

FORMATION . ( SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS )

A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP TYPICALLY HAS A LOWER TRENDING NECKLINE NOT A RISING 

TREND LINE . YET WHEN CALCULATING THE PRICE OBJECTIVE YOU MEASURE THE DISTANCE FROM THE HEAD

TO THE LEFT SIDE LOW AND THEN TAKE THAT SAME DISTANCE AND SUBTRACT IT FROM WHERE THE NECKLINE

THE NECK LINE BREAK IS .AS YOU CAN SEE THE DOWNSIDE MEASURED OBJECTIVE WAS HIT 3 TIMES .

LASTLY FOLLOWING A BREAK OF THE NECKLINE YOU LOOK FOR A RE TEST OF THE NECKLINE .

THIS IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING AT THIS JUNCTURE .

BOTTOM LINE : WE HAVE PRICE PATTERN AND INTERNALS AS WELL AS TIME ALL COMING TOGETHER 

SAYING WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR A MOVE TO THE DOWNSIDE .

LASTLY WE ARE ALSO ENTERING A POWERFUL BEARISH CYCLE WHICH IS DUE TO BEGIN MONDAY/TUESDAY

AS NOTED ABOVE :

BOTTOM LINE : WE ARE AT AN INFLECTION POINT , WE HAVE DONE OUR HOMEWORK ,IT IS 

NOW UP TO THE MARKET TO PROVE US RIGHT OR WRONG .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY OCT 31 , GOOD LUCK TRADING 

OCT 27 2011

TODAY'S CLOSE WAS ABOVE THE 200 DAY PIVOT AT 11975 

AS PER MY UPDATE I TOOK A BEARISH TRADE ON THE CLOSE 

MY ENTRY BASED ON THE DOW IS : 12204.96

BOTTOM LINE : I AM NOW BEARISH .

FRIDAY IS THE END OF THE WEEK AND MONDAY THE END OF THE MONTH 

NOV 14TH IS THE NEXT TURN DATE FOLLOWING THIS WEEK .

OCT 26 2011

I FORGOT TO ADD THIS 

SEE OCT 10TH UPDATE WHICH RELATES TO THIS 

GLD

TIME TO CONSIDER RE ENTERING THE BEARISH SIDE OF THIS ETF

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

TODAY'S UPDATE IS BELOW 

OCT 26TH 2011

PIVOT DATA 

IT APPEARS AS IF WE ARE IN WAVE 5 OF C .

THE UPSIDE OBJECTIVE IS JUST ABOVE THE 200 DAY PIVOT AT 11975.21

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 200 DAY PIVOT TURNED UP SLIGHTLY .

THAT SLIGHT UP TICK IS NORMALLY A BULLISH SIGNAL SO THIS 

WEEKS AS WELL AS MONTHS TURNS AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY IS NOW

EVEN MORE IMPORTANT . 

THE UPSIDE OBJECTIVE FOR WAVE 5 OF C IS : 12008.31 ( ON CLOSE )

BOTTOM LINE : I WILL TAKE A BEARISH STANCE ON ANY CLOSE

ABOVE 11975.21 REGARDLESS OF TIME .

10 DAY ADV DEC LINE

THE 10 DAY AVERAGE OF ADVANCERS MINUS DECLINERS

THIS CHART TENDS TO MOVE IN A RANGE OF PLUS 600 TO MINUS

800 . THIS YEAR IT HAS BEEN IN A WIDER RANGE OF PLUS 800 TO MINUS 1400

IT HIT PLUS 800 LAST WEEK AND HAS TURNED DOWN .

A MOVE BACK TOWARDS MINUS 400 SHOULD BE A MINIMUM EXPECTATION 

BOTTOM LINE : THIS INDICATOR IS NOT CONFIRMING THE UPWARD MOVE IN THE DOW

10 DAY TRIN 

THE 10 DAY TRIN HAS ITS GOOD AND BAD MOMENTS . IT IS BEST USED NEAR 

EXTREMES .

THIS INDICATOR GAVE A SELL SIGNAL ON OCT 19TH , THIS IMPLIES THERE HAS 

BEEN SELLING INTO THIS RALLY .

5 DAY TRIN SUM

THIS INDICATOR IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OVERSOLD

THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM INDICATOR .

EXPLANATIONS ON CHART .

DOW

MY INITIAL STATEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS UPDATE IS LEFT UNCHANGED I WILL TAKE 

A BEARISH STANCE ON ANY CLOSE ABOVE 11975.21 REGARDLESS OF TIME . I HAVE ALSO STATED 

THAT TODAY WAS A KEY DATE FOR A HIGH ,, THIS WEEK A KEY WEEK AND THIS MONTH A KEY MONTH

MONDAY IS THE END OF THE MONTH . THE 5 DAY TRIN SUM NEEDS SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE IT CAN GIVE

AN OVERBOUGHT READING , THE 10 DAY ADV-DEC CHART IS TURNING DOWN THE 10 DAY TRIN IS ON A SELL 

SIGNAL . ALL THAT SAID IF THE DOW PUSHES HIGHER THEN THE 12008 PIVOT OBJECTIVE IN THIS 5TH WAVE OF

C THEN WE MUST LOOK FOR A MOVE INTO THE 12048.18-12204.95 ZONE . 

BOTTOM LINE : WE ARE ENTERING A POTENTIAL CRASH STYLE TIME PERIOD AND FOR THIS TO TAKE PLACE

WE NEED TO SEE THE MARKET CLOSE UP FOR THIS WEEK . FROM OCT 31 ONWARDS ( THIS COMING MONDAY ) 

WE WANT TO SEE A DECLINE UNFOLD .

OCT 23RD 2011

NEXT WEEK IS AN IMPORTANT WEEK FOR A HIGH 

OCT 2011 A MONTHLY SWING HIGH CLOSE IS PREFERRED

AND WOULD BE THE SET UP FOR A RESUMPTION OF THE DOWN

TREND THAT BEGAN IN MAY 2011.

WEEKLY TIME COUNTS

TAKE NOTE OF THE PURPLE TIME COUNT AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS CHART 

IT IMPLIES A CLOSING HIGH FOR THIS NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A REVERSAL 

TO THE DOWNSIDE .

MONTHLY TIME COUNT 

TO SIMPLIFY THE COUNT ABOVE IM SHOWING THE MONTHLY CLOSE ONLY CHART .

THE MONTHLY LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT IS COUNTED TWICE AND IMPLIES

A CLOSING HIGH FOR OCTOBER 2011 FOLLOWED BY A DOWN TREND .

NOTE THE 6 MONTH DURATION FROM THE TOP IN 2007 TO THE SWING HIGH 

6 MONTHS LATER . A HIGH AT THE END OF OCT 2011 WILL BE 6 MONTHS FOLLOWING 

THE HIGH MADE IN 2011 .

DAILY TIME COUNTS 

USING TRADING DAYS OCT 26TH 27TH BECOMES THE KEY TIME PERIOD 

INDICATORS.

PIVOT LEVELS :

KEY RESISTANCE : 11974.91 AND FALLING

MONDAY PIVOT SUPPORT :11721.37

THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW

THIS INDICATOR IS GETTING A LITTLE OVERBOUGHT YET MORE STRENGTH IN THE MARKET 

IS NEEDED TO PUSH THIS UP A LITTLE MORE . 

VERY TOUGH CALL ON THIS AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BOTTOM LINE : CALLING A TOP TODAY IS DIFFICULT SINCE THERE IS NO BEARISH DIVERGENCE 

THE NEXT PUETZ WINDOW 

THIS CYCLE IS DUE TO BEGIN ON OCT 31 2011 

THE REASON I BROUGHT UP THE LOW TO HIGH COUNTS IS BECAUSE THIS ALL BLENDS TOGETHER 

THIS IS THE BASIC OUTLINE OF HOW IT SHOULD PLAY OUT IF WE ARE SEEING AN IMPORTANT 

HIGH FORMING IN THIS TIME PERIOD .

THIS IMPLIES A STRONG MARKET MOVEMENT IS COMING .

THE DIRECTIONAL BIAS IS ALWAYS OPEN TO INTERPRETATION YET THE TIME PERIODS 

DEFINE THE SWING DATES .

THE MAIN DATES :

OCT 31 ,NOV 14 TH , NOV 25TH ,DEC 10TH DEC 22-26TH JAN 3RD-12TH 2012.

A DECLINE ALL THIS WEEK WOULD BE CONSIDERED A ( B WAVE ) AND IMPLY A HIGHER 

MARKET INTO YEAR END AND AT A MINIMUM A STRONG RALLY FROM DEC 10 TO  CHRISTMAS .

THE BULLISH SET UP IS SHOWN BELOW THIS CHART .

THE CHART AT THE TOP OF TODAY'S UPDATE IMPLIES THE ENTIRE MOVEMENT UPWARDS IS ENDING 

AND WE ARE HEADING LOWER INTO YEAR END .

THIS BULLISH INTERPRETATION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE OPEN TO BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET 

BOTTOM LINE : CHART IS BASED ON WEEKLY DATES AND AT THIS JUNCTURE PRICE IS SATISFIED FOR A HIGH 

YET THE WEEKLY TIME COUNTS AND THE BEARISH CYCLE DUE TO BEGIN AND THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR

IMPLIES A TOP OF IMPORTANCE MUST FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL THE END OF THE MONTH .

THEREFORE WHILE I CAN SEE A DOWNTREND BEGIN RIGHT THIS MOMENT GIVEN WHAT HAPPEN FOLLOWING 

THE LAST OPTION EXPIRY ( FOR ANOTHER TIME ) I MUST KEEP A BULLISH BIAS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK

AND BEGIN TAKING A BEARISH STANCE NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH ONCE I SEE THE MARKET HOLD

THESE  PRESENT  PRICE LEVELS ( A WHIP SAW DOWN UP ECT IS FINE BY ME AS LONG AS I SEE A CLOSING 

HIGH AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS WELL AS THE END OF THIS MONTH )

HOPEFULLY THAT MADE SENSE.

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WEDNESDAY OCT 26TH 2011 ( UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING TO SIGNIFICANT TO ADD

MONDAY OR TUESDAY .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS IS NOT WHAT I PREFER TO SEE HOWEVER IF THE MARKET PROVES ME WRONG AND HEADS

LOWER ALL WEEK THEN ID HAVE TO CONCLUDE THIS IS WHAT IS TO EXPECT AND I WOULD THEN INVERT 

THE CRASH CYCLE SHOWN ABOVE AND TRADE ACCORDINGLY .

NOTE : THIS PAST WEEKS CLOSING HIGH WAS A .236 FIBONACCI RATIO TIME MOVE FROM THE 5 WAVE MOVE

DOWN , THIS IS NOT THE NORMAL TIME DURATION AND IS THEREFORE IMPLIES THE NOV 13TH WEEKLY SWING

COULD BE A LOW AND ALSO IMPLIES A JAN 2012 HIGH . ALL A LARGER A B C MOVE . 

OCT 19 2011

TIMING MODEL ABOVE:( NOTE OCT 13TH A SWING HIGH WAS DUE )

UPDATED AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY

I HAVE CLEARED OUT MANY OLD FILES TODAY 

AND HAVE LEFT THE ONES I FOUND IMPORTANT IN 

REGARDS TO THE BIGGER PICTURE .

THIS WEEK IS AN OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK

TYPICALLY THIS IS NOTHING MORE THEN POSITION

SQUARING IN MY OPINION AND THE DATA GETS SKEWED

THE NEXT MAJOR SWING PERIOD RUNS FROM :

OCT 31 2011 TO JAN 6TH 2012 

THERE IS ALSO A HISTORICAL BULLISH PERIOD 85 % OF THE TIME

FROM NOV 7TH TO JAN 16TH EACH YEAR .

THE LONG TERM CYCLES CALL FOR A LOW FROM 8800 TO 8000 ON THE DOW

BEGINNING APRIL 2012 AND RUNS INTO NOV 2012 .

TO ADD TO THIS THERE IS A HISTORICAL BEARISH CYCLE WE ARE IN RIGHT NOW 

INTO JUNE 2012 . AND TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE LONGER TERM CYCLES 

THERE IS A STRONG CYCLE WHICH RUNS FROM AUG 2012 TO FEB 2013 .

BOTTOM LINE : WE MUST BEGIN WITH OCT 31 2011 BEFORE WE CAN CORRELATE

ALL OF THE CYCLES 

I WILL UPDATE THIS PAGE SUNDAY OCT 23RD AND ATTEMPT TO PUT ALL OF THE 

ABOVE TOGETHER .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

OCT 10 2011

GLD 

TODAY'S MOVE IN GLD PUT THIS ETF AT AN INFLECTION POINT ON THE 60 MINUTE

CHART . USING THE DAILY CHART IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS WILL HEAD HIGHER

THROUGH OUT THIS MONTH , OCT 26 TH 31 IS THE NEXT SWING DATE IM FOCUSING 

ON AS IT IS THE THE BEGINNING TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL CRASH

CYCLE . THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD MOVE STOCK MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD 

AN IMMEDIATE DECLINE WOULD BE EXPECTED USING THE 60 MINUTE CHART 

YET MY GUESS IS THIS WILL FAIL TO PROVE ITSELF DUE TO THE OVERSOLD READINGS

IM SEEING . A MOVE INTO THE 166.28-168.15 WOULD BE THE TYPICAL PRICE RETRACEMENT 

FOR A 4TH WAVE ( A SIMPLE A B C RALLY ) AN EXTENSION UP FURTHER TOWARDS 175 

CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO THE TIME IM ALLOWING FOR 

INTO MONTH END .

BOTTOM LINE : IM SHORT TERM BULLISH GOLD FOR NOW LOOKING FOR A FURTHER 

DECLINE LONGER TERM TOWARDS THE 140-125 PRICE AREA

DOW

PIVOT DATA 

TOMORROWS PIVOT 11323.69 ( TODAY'S CLOSE WAS A BULLISH CLOSE )

MAJOR RESISTANCE 11982.60 AND FALLING .

THE NEXT SHORT TERM SWING DATE IS OCT 13TH 

THE MAJOR DATES SURROUNDS THE END OF THE MONTH 

SEE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE FOR NOTES

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON DOW

THIS INDICATOR IS NOT GIVING A SHORT TO MEDIUM OVERBOUGHT READING 

AT THIS JUNCTURE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE OCT 13TH TURN DATE SHOULD BE QUESTIONED AND THE 

FOCUS SHOULD BE AT THE END OF OCTOBER FOR A LARGER POSITION TRADE 

BOTTOM LINE : THE KEY IS OCT 26 31 , AS WELL AS MID NOVEMBER . IF THIS 

TIME FRAME IS SHOWING A HIGH IN PRICES THEN IT WILL BE THE SET UP 

FOR A MINI CRASH TO THE DOWNSIDE .

THE WEEKLY DOW CLOSE ONLY CHART SHOWS 5 WAVES DOWN OVER 21 WEEKS

A .382 TIME RETRACEMENT POINTS TO THE WEEK OF NOV 13TH FOR A B WAVE OR WAVE 2 HIGH .

THIS IS WHY I MENTIONED THE MID NOVEMBER DATE ABOVE . THE CRASH THEORY CYCLE CALLS FOR 

A HIGH OCT 31 . UNDER ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY ONCE YOU SEE 5 WAVES DOWN YOU LOOK FOR A MOVE 

BACK TO THE 4TH WAVE OF 1 LESSER DEGREE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE DOW IS IN A B WAVE AND B WAVES CAN GO WHERE EVER THEY WANT TO .

THIS IS WHY I BEGAN WITH THE PIVOT DATA SHOWING THE 200 DAY PIVOT . KEY RESISTANCE

BASED ON CLOSING PRICES AS WELL AS PRINT PRICES FROM HIGH TO LOW SITS IN THE 

RANGE OF  11640.24 ( JUST ABOVE WAVE 4 ) AND 11791.01 (  50 PERCENT CLOSE ONLY RETRACEMENT )

AND 11931.88 ( .618 RETRACEMENT OF THE PRINT HIGH MINUS PRINT LOW )

BOTTOM LINE : THE MARKET HAS A TURN DATE ON OCT 13TH , THE INDICATORS ALLOW FOR HIGHER 

PRICES AND ARE NOT EXTREME , THE TYPICAL DURATION OF A TIME RETRACEMENT HAS NOT 

BEEN REACHED USING A FIBONACCI TIME  RATIO.

LASTLY : THE CRASH THEORY . IT BEGINS OCT 31 AND ENDS JAN 3RD 12TH 2012 .

THE FIBONACCI TIME SERIES ALSO IS CALLING FOR A TURN ON JAN 8TH 2012 .

IF THE MARKET TURNS DOWN FROM OCT 13 TH AND THEN TURNS UP FROM 

OCT 31 WE WOULD HAVE TO LABEL THIS USING THE WEEKLY CHART BELOW 

AS A LARGER A B C RALLY INTO YEAR YEAR END . IN THIS CASE WHAT WE 

ARE SEEING NOW IS ONLY THE WAVE A OF THIS PATTERN .

LONG TERM IM LOOKING FOR A LOW IN PRICE FROM 8800 TO 8000 

IN THE TIME PERIOD OF APRIL 2012 TO FEB 2013 ( THAT HAS NOT CHANGED )

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

OCT 4 LATE DAY 

GLD IS FOLLOWING THE SCRIPT YET TODAY'S FAKE OUT LEAVES THE 

DOOR OPEN THAT WHAT WE SAW WAS A SIMPLE A B C RALLY .

THE TRIANGLE FORMATION IS STILL HERE TO CONSIDER YET 

TO KEEP IT SIMPLE TODAY'S HIGH IS NOW KEY RESISTANCE .

NOTE : CHART SHOWS OVERNIGHT TRADING 

TONIGHT'S UPDATE WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING , I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT SHORTLY 

AFTER THE CLOSE AND I WANT TO SHOW ALL THE DATA TONIGHT .

OCT 3 2011

ILL BE POSTING TIMING MODEL LATER TODAY . AND UPDATING STOCK 

MARKET INDEX DATA ALL WEEK . HERE IS MY THOUGHTS ON GOLD.

SO FAR GOLD IS MOVING AS EXPECTED .

I MADE A NOTE OF 2 ENTRY SPOTS IN THE LAST UPDATE AND TODAY'S MOVE BROUGHT

THIS ETF RIGHT INTO THE FIRST SPOT PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON . AS MUCH AS 

I FAVOR THIS NEXT LEG , A MOVE BACK TO THE DOWN SIDE, WE SHOULD ALL KEEP

OUR POWDER SOMEWHAT DRY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE

PATTERN . KEY RESISTANCE SITS AT 163.10-163.53 FOR LONGER TERM BEARISH POSITIONS

AT THIS JUNCTURE . THE WAVE C ( PRESENT POSITION OF THE PATTERN ) WE SHOULD 

NOT SEE THIS ETF GO ABOVE 162.13 SO WE SHOULD USE TODAY'S HIGHS AS A LEVEL

VERY SHORT TERM ONLY .

BOTTOM LINE : THE PATTERN CALLS FOR AN IMMEDIATE DECLINE , THE INDICATORS ARE

STILL SHOWING OVERSOLD READINGS HERE . MY GUT SAYS SOMETHING A MISS SO

IM GOING TO WAIT THIS OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND FOCUS MORE ON THE STOCK MARKET

INDEX'S. SEE THIS ETF COMPARED TO THE MARKET TIMER BELOW.

NEXT UPDATE : TUESDAY ( TOMORROW ) NEAR THE OPEN AND FOLLOWING CLOSE

GOOD LUCK TRADING

GLD 

THIS IS GLD COMPARED TO THE TIMING MODEL SINCE EARLY AUGUST 

NEXT TURN IS OCT 13TH .

OCT 31 IS A MAJOR SWING DATE FOR ALL MARKETS 

SEPT 29

KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS .

THE CHART IS A BIT HUGE ILL ADMIT ITS A 60 MINUTE BAR CHART USING 

24 HOUR TRADING ( OVERNIGHT TRADES SHOW UP .

158.17 TO 158.97 KEY LEVELS VERY SHORT TERM .

JUST ABOVE 161.56 WOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR WAVE C .

BOTTOM LINE : 162-163 IS THE MOST IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL TO WATCH 

NOTE: I EXITED 1/2 OF MY BEARISH POSITIONS TODAY AT THE OUR EXIT PRICE LEVEL.

SEPT 28 

SLOW INDICATORS ON GLD

THEY TEND TO TURN A FEW DAYS LATE 

THE IDEA IS YOU BUY THE UPTURNS MORE SO THEN SELLING THE DOWN 

TURNS YET THE CHART BELOW THIS SHOWS HOW WELL THIS HAS WORKED 

OVER THE PAST 2 YEARS .

NOTE THE TRIANGLE ON THE INDICATOR ??? A MOVE BACK TO THE APEX 

SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT A MINIMUM , THIS IS BASED ON DAILY GLD DATA 

AND EACH DOT REPRESENTS 1 TRADING DAY .

ONCE A TRIANGLE THRUST IS COMPLETE YOU LOOK FOR A DECLINE BACK TO THE APEX 

IN TERMS OF PRICE THAT WOULD BE NEAR 150 . NOTE THE GAPS SURROUNDING JULY 7 

THIS IS WHERE IM TARGETING FOR NOW . WE WILL NEED TO SEE A FURTHER EXTENSION DOWN 

BELOW 154.19 AT A MINIMUM . TODAY'S CLOSE WAS A NEW CLOSING LOW .

WAVE COUNT POSTED YESTERDAY

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

SEPT 27TH 2011

JUST GETTING BACK AND PUTTING SOME DATA TOGETHER .

CHART FROM AUGUST 10TH BELOW ,

I LOST THIS SO ITS EASIER TO POST THE BEFORE AND THEN THE AFTER .

THIS TIME ANALYSIS IS BASED ON ON VERY LONG TERM TIME SWINGS

AND IMPLY THE LARGER TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS .

THIS COULD BE A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT OR A DECLINE , EITHER WAY 

WE ARE DUE FOR AT A MINIMUM A LARGER DECLINE / SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT.

BOTTOM LINE : IM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF GOLD .

SEE DETAILS BELOW 

GLD 

THIS ETF APPEARS TO BE IN A 4TH WAVE WITH IN AN A B C DECLINE.

KEY RESISTANCE SITS AT 166.50

THE TIMING BASED ON THIS VERY SHORT TERM 60 MINUTE CHART ALLOWS

FOR 14 TRADING HOURS TO COMPLETE WAVE 4 . THIS LEAVE GLD OPEN TO HIGHER 

PRICES YET THE 166.50 LEVEL WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT . A BREAK ABOVE 

WOULD IMPLY THIS IS NOT WAVE 4 AND WOULD SIGNAL THE 176 AREA BEING 

TESTED IN A LARGER A B C DECLINE . 145.50-142.90 WOULD BE WHERE ID EXPECT

WAVE 5 OF C TO BOTTOM . 

TAKE NOTE : WE TOPPED THROUGH OUT AUGUST .

OEX

I HAVE SLOWLY GRADUATED TO LOOKING AT LONGER TERM SWINGS AND WHAT IS COMING UP IN MID TO LATE

2012 IS AN IMPORTANT CYCLE LOW BASED ON MANY MODELS . THIS COULD BE A LOW IN GOLD AS WELL AS STOCKS

SO I MUST REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL INTO THE MID 2012 TO FEB 2013 TIME FRAME DESPITE THE HYPE SURROUNDING 

THE GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS. THE WAY I SEE IT AT THIS MOMENT PEOPLE DON'T TRUST 

THE GOVERNMENT . IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT THEN I WOULD EXPECT THE PESSIMISM TO CHANGE TO OPTIMISM FROM 

FEB 2013 INTO AS LATE AS JULY 2018.

MEAN WHILE THE OEX HAS RESISTANCE IN THE 561-581 RANGE .

ABOVE 581 TARGETS 621 

476-491 IS THE NEXT LOWER SUPPORT 

441 IS A LONG TERM TARGET ALLOWING FOR A DEC 2012 BOTTOM 

PUT IT ALL TOGETHER , EITHER THEY HAVE THERE PRESIDENT ALREADY 

ELECTED OR WE GO THROUGH A BIT OF CHANGE .

SEPT 10 2011

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SEPT 30 TH 

BOTTOM LINE THE MARKET IS IN A DOWN TREND INTO MID NEXT YEAR AT THE 

EARLIEST . A BOUNCE MAY COME YET THE TREND IS DOWN.

THE NEXT TURN DATE ON THE TIMING MODEL IS MONDAY SEPT 12TH .

THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW IS SOMEWHAT OVERSOLD YET NOT EXTREME

THE 10 DAY TRIN IS VERY OVERSOLD 

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT 

THIS LEAVES US WITH A MIXED MARKET .

OTHER CYCLES

MONDAY IS IMPORTANT AND IF THE DOW CAN MANAGE TO BOTTOM AND TURN UP ID GIVE THIS MARKET INTO YEAR END

BEFORE TAKING A STRONGER BEARISH STANCE . YET AS YOU CAN SEE THIS IS ONLY ONE SET OF TIMING PARAMETERS

AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN MY TIMING MODEL . 

THERE IS NO MORE ROOM TO SAY LOOK FOR HIGHER PRICES PAST MONDAYS CLOSE .

THE POTENTIAL INVERSION ( THIS WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN FOR NOW )

MAKE NOTE OF THE OVERALL SWING DATES . THESE ALL HAVE DIFFERENT PARAMETERS YET VERY SIMILAR 

DATES ALL COMING TOGETHER RIGHT NOW .

DOW DATA WITH TIMING MODEL.

11352.28 IS THE KEY LEVEL FOR THE DOW , ANY FAILURES TO GET THROUGH THAT PRICE KEEPS THE DOWN TREND 

IN TACT . A BREAK ABOVE THAT LEVEL OVER THE COMING WEEKS FOLLOWING MONDAY/TUESDAY CYCLE DATE

WOULD IMPLY STRENGTH ION THE MARKET INTO YEAR END .( THIS WOULD BE THE INVERSION )

MORE DOW DATA .

WATCH 10806.22 AS WELL AS 10393.20 AND LOOK TO TAKE A BULLISH TRADE WHEN THESE LEVELS ARE TOUCHED .

KEEP IN MIND THE NOTES ABOVE . A BREAK ABOVE 11352.28 WOULD STILL BE NEEDED TO GIVE A BULLISH BIAS

INTO YEAR END . 

NO COMMENT 

YET THIS IS EXPLAINED AT THE TOP OF THIS CHART .

GOOD LUCK TRADING EVERYONE .

SEE YOU IN A COUPLE WEEKS AND ILL GET INTO MORE DETAILS 

ABOUT THE LARGER BEARISH PATTERN DEVELOPING .

YET ILL TOUCH ON ONE LAST CHART .

UP DAYS MINUS DOWN DAYS 

VERY EASY TO FIGURE THIS OUT , AN UP DAY IS A DAY THE DOW RISES I ADD 1 POINT . A DOWN DAY 

IS A DAY THE DOW FALLS I SUBTRACT 1 DAY . THE POINT GAIN OR LOSS DOES NOT MATTER .

IM HESITANT TO CALL THIS A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION YET IT HAS ALL THE EAR MARKS

OF ONE .THIS IS VERY BEARISH COME NEXT WEEK IF THE MARKET FAILS TO MAKE A LOW BY TUESDAY .

SAME CHART AS ABOVE FROM 2009

AUG 21 

IM HAVING COMPUTER PROBLEMS , CHARTS ARE DISAPPEARING , WHEN I LOAD ONE 

SOFTWARE ANOTHER SHUTS OFF

ILL BE GOING TO WORK THIS EVENING WILL UPDATE MONDAY YET 

I WANT TO POINT OUT THE BIG PICTURE TODAY.

THE DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE RUNS FROM 8800-8000 ON THE DOW INTO THE TIME FRAME

OF APRIL 2012 TO FEB 2013 . THESE ARE THE PARAMETERS IM WORKING WITH AND 

WILL NOT CHANGE REGARDLESS OF THE SHORT TERM MOVES .

ITS PRETTY OBVIOUS TO SEE THE WAVES 1 2 , 1 2 3 AND WE CAN CALL THE RECENT BOUNCE 

A WAVE 4 WHICH IMPLIES WAVE 5 DOWN TO AROUND 10201 WHICH WOULD BE LABELED ( 3 )

THE STOCK MARKET HAS TRACED OUT SO MANY 3 WAVE MOVES OVER THE YEARS THAT I TEND

TO FOCUS ON THE 3'S INSTEAD OF THE 5'S . I FIND THAT IGNORING WAVE 4 AND 5 TENDS TO 

KEEP ME ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET .

THAT CERTAINLY IS NOT WORKING THIS TIME AROUND 

THE 15 MINUTE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN IS BECOMING SLOPPY AND I INTENDED TO POST IT YET 

IT SOMEHOW JUST DISAPPEARED ON ME . THE FAILURE OF THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES TO CREATE A COMMON

BOND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED DEFLATIONARY AND VERY BEARISH BEARISH . GOLD HAS BROKEN 

ABOVE ITS KEY LEVEL AND IM LEAVING IT ALONE FOR NOW ,THE DOW IS DUE FOR A BOUNCE YET IF IT IS 

TO DO SO 11727 12000 ON THE DOW AND THE 1238-1240 ON THE SPX SHOULD BE CONSIDERED RESISTANCE.

BOTTOM LINE : SHORT TERM THE MARKET IS DUE FOR A BOUNCE , LONG TERM THE DOW STILL HAS 2000

MORE POINTS OF DOWNSIDE LEFT IN IT AND IT HAS ROUGHLY 1 TO 1 1/2 YEARS TO GET THERE .

AT SOME POINT THIS MARKET SHOULD GET CHOPPY AND MOVE SIDEWAYS .

EVERY ADVANCE HAS A SEPARATING DECLINE .THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE WITH DECLINES EVERY DECLINE 

HAS A SEPARATING ADVANCE . MY FAILURE HAS BEEN IN IDENTIFYING THE SEPARATING ADVANCE .

EVEN THOUGH SO FAR TO DATE WE ARE STILL ABOVE THE AUG 9 LOWS THE MARKET IS STILL SHOWING BULLISH 

DIVERGENCE AND I STILL FAVOR A MOVE UPWARDS .

SOMETHING TO CONSIDER , COMPARE THE YEARS 2001-2003 TO 2001-2013 . THERE IS SOME SIMILARITIES 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

AUG 17

THERE IS A GANN SWING DATE FROM AUG 17TH - AUG 20TH . 

THE LONG TERM TREND IS DOWN , TRADING THE UPSIDE EXPECTATION

MAY NOT WORK EVEN THOUGH I DO FAVOR FURTHER UPSIDE .

THE SPX HAS A WIDE RESISTANCE BAND RESISTANCE IN THE RANGE OF 

1194.63 TO 1236.11 . RIGHT NOW IT IS BELOW THIS AREA WHICH IS GIVING A BEARISH SIGNAL .

APRIL JUNE 2012 IS THE EARLIEST TIME FRAME TO EXPECT A LONGER TERM LOW .

YET THE ENTIRE SPAN RUNS FROM APRIL 2012 INTO FEB 2013 . THIS ENTIRE RANGE 

THOUGH DOES HAVE A SHORT TERM BULLISH CYCLE WITH IN IT YET WE ARE NOT 

NEAR THAT CYCLE AT THIS POINT SO ILL MENTION IT LATER .

DOW

THE DOW HAS SUPPORT AT :11378.46 AND THE DOW IS PRESENTLY BELOW THIS LEVEL WHICH IS ALSO 

GIVING A BEARISH SIGNAL . IT WOULD TAKE A CLOSE ABOVE THIS LEVEL TO GIVE A BUY SIGNAL 

TOWARDS 11836 WHICH IS WHERE I WOULD TAKE A LONGER TERM BEARISH STANCE FROM .

THERE IS NO RULE THAT STATES THIS LEVEL MUST BE HIT .

BOTTOM LINE : THE MARKET LOOKS VERY WEAK AND YET IS ALSO VERY OVERSOLD .

PIVOT DATA :

THIS CHART LOOKS VERY CLUTTERED YET ILL EXPLAIN .

TYPICALLY YOU LOOK FOR THE 500-700 DAY PIVOT TO GET HIT THEN YOU LOOK FOR A BOUNCE 

BACK UP TO THE 200 DAY PIVOT TO TURN BEARISH AGAINST YET WE ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT 

TIME SEEING THAT BOUNCE NOW AREN'T WE .

THE ONLY BULLISH SIDE TO THIS IS YESTERDAYS CLOSE CLOSED ABOVE THE 

DAILY PIVOT AS WELL AS THE 10 DAY PIVOT THAT SITS AT :

11395.52 IS TODAY'S PIVOT YET A CLOSE BELOW 11378.46 LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR 10920

NEXT PIVOT LEVEL SITS AT :11277.70 THIS LEVEL REALLY MUST HOLD OR WE WILL FIND THE MARKET

BACK DOWN AT 11106.02 WHICH WOULD BE A RETEST OF THE 500 DAY PIVOT .

SEE CHART OF DOW BELOW SO YOU CAN SEE WHY I FAVOR MORE UPSIDE EVEN 

THOUGH I AM NOT TRUSTING THIS MARKET TODAY .

DOW 

THERE COMES A TIME WHEN WE MUST ASK OURSELVES WHICH IS CORRECT , WHAT WE THINK OR WHAT WE SEE

WHAT I SEE IS AN OVERSOLD MARKET IN NEED OF A BOUNCE . YET AS NOTED FRIDAY ( THE WEEKEND UPDATE BELOW )

WE ARE NOW INTO A HISTORICAL BEARISH CYCLE , THIS DOESN'T MEAN IT HAS TO HIT AS OF YESTERDAY 

YET THE MARKET IS WEAK .

THAT SAID THIS CHART IS GIVING A BULLISH SIGNAL ( THIS IS WHY IM SHORTER TERM BULLISH )

BOTTOM LINE : I HAVE TO KEEP A BULLISH BIAS BASED ON THE INDICATORS AND YET I CANT BE AGGRESSIVE.

LONG TERM LOWER PRICES ARE COMING BOUNCE OR NOT . 

GOLD 

I STILL FAVOR MORE DOWNSIDE IN GOLD , THE 1806 LEVEL IS THE KEY LEVEL THAT MUST HOLD.

THE BOUNCE FROM THE LOWS A FEW DAYS AGO HAS GONE FURTHER THEN I ANTICIPATED 

AND THE RISK OF FURTHER UPSIDE MUST BE CONSIDERED .

AS NOTED ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE IS 1806 WE DO NOT WANT TO SEE A CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL 

OR IT SIGNALS MUCH HIGHER PRICES IN THE COMING DAYS .

TODAY'S SWING HIGH AT 1796.10 ( THE LOWER SWING HIGH ) CAME IN AT A FIBONACCI TIME LINE 

USE THIS LEVEL AS A STOP FOR TODAY ON BEARISH POSITIONS .

THERE IS ONE LAST TIMELINE DUE TOMORROW YET I DON'T HAVE TIME TO CALCULATE IT .

I POST IT IN TOMORROWS UPDATE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

AUG 10 2011

THE SEASONAL BIAS IN GOLD TENDS TO BE UP FROM MID AUGUST INTO JAN FEB

THAT SAID I THINK THIS COMMODITY IS PUTTING IN A MULTI YEAR TOP.

THIS MONTH IS THE KEY MONTH AND 1806 IS THE KEY LEVEL TO DEFINE 

THE TREND . A MOVE TOWARDS 1980 WOULD BE AN EXTENSION AND 

SHOULD BE SOLD SHORT IF SEEN.

FOR ME IM BEARISH RIGHT HERE 

KEEP IN MIND THE ABOVE , EVERYONE LOVES GOLD RIGHT NOW .

BOTTOM LINE : GOLD MOVES ON EMOTION AND AT TIME LIKE THIS WE REALLY 

HAVE TO ASK OURSELVES WHY SHOULD THIS CONTINUE UP WHEN EVERYTHING 

ELSE IS FALLING .

NOTES  ARE ON THE CHART : THINK IT THROUGH BEFORE YOU TRADE AGAINST THIS 

VERY STRONG UP TREND.

AUG 8

THE NEXT TURN DATE SURROUNDS THURSDAY THIS WEEK AS WELL AS MONDAY 

NEXT WEEK .ILL GO INTO TIMING IN TOMORROWS UPDATE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

THE DOW AND SPX HIT THERE HEAD AND SHOULDERS MEASURED OBJECTIVES TODAY

THERE IS NO SIGNS OF A BOTTOM AS OF YET . THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS NOW 

TESTING LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MARCH LOWS OF 2009 .

THE LONG TERM MOMENTUM MODEL IS STILL FOLLOWING THE SAME SCRIPT AS THE AFTERMATH

OF THE 1974-1976 BULL MARKET . NOTE THE SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE TO 

DEAL WITH GOING FORWARD.

BOTTOM LINE : THE TREND IS DOWN INTO NEXT YEAR 

REMEMBER THIS ??

SAME CHART AS ABOVE .

SO NOW WE ASK WHERE DOES THIS GO HISTORICALLY ONCE IT TESTS THE .0007 READING .

TECHNICALLY THIS INDICATOR IS STILL WAY OVERBOUGHT YET ITS LONGER TERM IN NATURE

SO IT TAKES A WHILE . MULTI DECADE VIEW BELOW .

EACH TIME OVER THE PAST 70 PLUS YEARS THIS INDICATOR HAS COME BACK BELOW THE 000 AND GONE NEGATIVE 

AFTER GOING ABOVE PLUS .0005. IT TAKE ALLOT OF TIME FOR THIS INDICATOR TO COME BACK BELOW 0.

SO WE MUST ADOPT A LONGER TERM BEARISH VIEW EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A STRONG BOUNCE

AT SOME POINT TO RELIEVE THE SHORTER TERM OVERSOLD EXTREMES.

THIS CHART SPANS 73 YEARS OF MARKET HISTORY BASED ON THE DAILY MOVEMENTS OF THE DOW 30

BOTTOM LINE : HISTORICALLY THE MARKET IS STILL EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT .

AN EXAMPLE OF AN EXTENDED MOVE OUT OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP 

THIS IS JUST TO SHOW THAT NO MATTER HOW SCARY THIS MAY SEEM 

THE MARKETS HAVE DONE THIS BEFORE . IM GOING TO SHOW WHAT USING 

5 TIMES THE RANGE LOOKS LIKE AND ILL SHOW A MINOR CHART USING 7 TIMES THE RANGE .

NOTE : COUNTING THE HIGH YOU CAN COUNT 5 LEVELS , 741 689 637 585 AND 533 WHICH BECAME THE LOW 

( IT POKED BELOW BY A FEW POINTS YET THAT LEVEL THEN HELD AS SUPPORT )

SHORT TERM GLD A FEW DAYS AGO 

TAKING THE INITIAL RANGE OF X AMOUNT OF POINTS YOU THEN JUST MOVE IT DOWN OR UP

7 TIMES THIS CREATES A CHART PRICED IN 1/8TH'S 

NOTE HERE COUNTING THE HIGH GO DOWN 5 LEVELS SEE HOW IT BECAME INTRADAY RESISTANCE 

IN THIS CASE 7/8THS BECAME SUPPORT .

THIS IS A 5 MINUTE BAR CHART 

SO HERE WE ARE WITH A MASSIVE SELL OFF THE LONGER TERM INDICATOR STILL POINTS LOWER

AND THE SHORTER TERM YET 20 DAY OSCILLATOR IS REACHING AN EXTREME, KEEP IN MIND THERE IS 

ROUGH 21 TRADING DAYS IN A MONTH .SO A BOUNCE IS DUE BUT FROM WHAT LEVEL ??

WE WILL TAKE 7 TIMES THE INITIAL RANGE AND SEE WHAT WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH .

NOTE THE ABOVE CHART IN 1962 THE MARKET WAS RANGE BOUNCE FOR A PERIOD OF MONTHS 

AND THIS TIME AROUND WE ALSO HAVE A SOMEWHAT RANGE BOUND MARKET OVER A PERIOD OF 

MONTHS , WE ALSO KNOW THAT IT IS THE 4TH AND 5/8 MOVE THAT TENDS TO SHOW SOME KIND OF 

SUPPORT AS WELL AS RESISTANCE FOLLOWING A BREAK THROUGH IT .

TAKING THIS IN AND LOOKING OUT OVER A PERIOD OF MONTHS ( WERE LOOKING FOR A LOW IN MID 

TO LATE 2012 ) WE CAN MAKE A ROUGH PROJECTION FOR THE PRICE . USING THE DOW 

NOTICE I USED 2 SEPARATE RANGES IN ORDER TO GIVE US A LONGER AND A SHORTER 

TERM PRICE LEVEL . SUPPORT IS NOW 104673.13 ON THE DOW AND IT WOULD TAKE 

A CLOSE ABOVE 10920.79 TO SIGNAL AN BOTTOM IS IN PLACE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE RANGES ARE NOTED AND THAT IS ALMOST A 500 POINT RANGE 

AND THE MARKET HAS BEEN BREAKING THROUGH THEM SO BE CAREFUL IF 

YOU TAKE A BULLISH TRADE NEAR 10463 AND IF A LOW IS SEEN THERE 

TAKE SOMETHING OFF NEAR THE 10849-10920 LEVEL .

TAKE NOTE : WHILE I DOUBT THE DOW WILL OPEN UP NEAR THE OPEN IF IT WAS TO OPEN ABOVE 

OR EVEN BREAK THROUGH 10920 TOMORROW THAT WOULD GIVE A BUY SIGNAL

GOING DOWN HITTING 10463 AND THEN MOVING UP TO 10920 DOES NOT GIVE A BUY SIGNAL UNLESS

IT CLOSES ABOVE 10920 . KEEP THIS IN MIND .ALSO NOTE THE CLOSES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS 

THE GREEN CANDLES GAVE BULLISH CLOSES YET THE FOLLOWING DAYS OPEN GAVE 

REPEAT SELL SIGNALS. 

AUG 4 

KEEP IN MIND THIS A BROAD 5 YEAR +- PATTERN.

BULL MARKET SCHEMATIC BASED ON GEORGE LINDSAY'S WORK

POINT A AT THE BOTTOM LEFT OF THIS CHART IS THE MARCH 2009 LOWS

POINT B SEPT 2009 , POINT C OCT 2009 , POINT D NOV 2009 , POINT E DEC 2009

POINT F JAN 2010,POINT G APRIL 2010,POINT H JULY 2010,POINT J FEB 2011

POINT K ( NOT SHOWN ON SCHEMATIC ) MARCH 2011,POINT L MAY 2011

POINT M JULY 2011. WE ARE NOW HEADING FOR POINT AA AS SHOWN 

ON SCHEMATIC BELOW .

DOW CHART WITH LABELS BELOW .

AUG 4 ADD ON :

JUST NOTES :

AUG 3 2011

I BORROWED THIS FROM WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE.COM

I BRING THIS UP SO WE CAN THINK OF THE SOX INDEX .

FOR MORE INFORMATION TO THIS SIGN UP TO THE CLUB AT : CLICK HERE :

AUG 1 2011

A FEW BRIEF NOTES TO THINK OF :

KEY LEVELS TO THINK OF : DOW MONTHLY ( OCT NOV KEY MONTH'S )

XLE

78.71-79.15 IS KEY RESISTANCE

79.69 IS AN OUTSIDE LEVEL AND GIVES A BULLISH SIGNAL FOR HIGHER PRICES ABOVE THE LATE APRIL

EARLY MAY HIGHS ( I REALIZE THE HIGHEST LEVEL ACTUALLY CAME ON MARCH 31 2011.

NOTE : GAP IN EARLY MAY GET FILLED ( YET SHOULDN'T IF BEARISH )

GOING TO TAKE A FEW DAYS TO CATCH UP MY DATA BASES . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY JULY 24TH .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

RAMBUS MONTHLY 

SOMETHING TO DO SOME RESEARCH ON .

NO COMMENT .

XLE

THIS INDEX APPEARS TO BE IN AN EXPANDING FLAT B WAVE . 

IF SO LOOK FOR RESISTANCE AT 77.66 TO BE BROKEN AT A MINIMUM .

TYPICALLY THIS WAVE UP SHOULD BE A 5 WAVE FORMATION IN WAVE C 

78.71-79.15 SHOULD BE ABOUT IT . ( TURN BEARISH IN THE YELLOW ZONE )

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NO COMMENT

JUNE 19 2011

THIS NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT WEEK FOR THE STOCK MARKETS

AROUND THE WORLD . PREVIOUSLY I HAD POSTED THIS CHART AND ILL UPDATE IT 

AGAIN . ACCORDING TO GEORGE LINDSAY'S WORK ON BULL AND BEAR MARKETS

THEY TEND TO RUN WITH IN CERTAIN TIME SPANS .THE MINIMUM TIME SPAN FOR A 

BULL MARKET IS 414 CALENDAR DAYS . TAKE THE MARCH 6TH - 9TH 2009 LOWS

AND COUNT 414 CALENDAR DAYS AND YOU COME UP WITH APRIL 24-27TH 2010

AND THE TOP IN 2010 WAS APRIL 26TH 2010 . THE CATEGORIES FOR THESE TIME SPANS 

ARE : 414 TO 684 FOR A SUBNORMAL ADVANCE . 704 TO 739 FOR A SHORT ADVANCE

765 TO 831 FOR A LONG ADVANCE AND 930 TO 991 CALENDAR DAYS FOR AN EXTENDED

ADVANCE . SO LETS GO WITH THE LONG ADVANCE START WITH MARCH 6 - 9TH 2009

AND ADD 831 CALENDAR DAYS , YOU GET A DATE OF JUNE 15TH-JUNE 18TH 2011.

ACCORDING TO LINDSAY HE ALSO NOTES THAT ALL BULL MARKET PEAKS HAVE BEEN

IDENTIFIED BY A LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT . WE NOTED THE LOW TO LOW TO HIGH 

COUNT WHICH TARGET A PEAK IN THE WEEK OF MAY 2 2011. SO FOR NOW THIS IMPLIES 

THAT A BULL MARKET PEAK IN MAY 2011 FITS WITH IN THE TIME SPANS . ANY BREAK ABOVE

THAT HIGH WOULD IMPLY WE ARE IN AN EXTENDED ADVANCE WHICH COULD NOT 

END UNTIL WE  SEE 930 TO 991 CALENDAR DAYS ELAPSE FROM THE MARCH 6- 9TH LOW OF 2009

THIS WOULD THEN IMPLY THAT A BREAK ABOVE THE EARLY MAY HIGHS OF 2011  CONTINUES

UP  INTO SEPT 25 -NOV 25TH 2011 . THIS IS THE GUIDELINE WE DEAL WITH THIS YEAR .

BEAR MARKETS TEND TO RUN INTO A SET OF TIME SPANS ALSO : 

SUBNORMAL :231-294 CALENDAR DAYS .SHORT :326-363 CALENDAR DAYS . LONG:376-448 DAYS

THE AVERAGES FOR BEAR MARKETS ARE : SUBNORMAL:253 DAYS SHORT 345 DAYS LONG:406 DAYS 

IF THE MAY 2ND PEAK WAS THE TOP OF THIS PRESENT BULL MARKET THEN WOULD BE LOOKING FOR 

A LOW IN ONE OF THESE TIME SPANS : SUBNORMAL =JAN 10 2012 .SHORT: APRIL 11 2012

AND A LONG DECLINE WOULD LAST INTO :JUNE 11 2012 ( THESE ARE JUST THE AVERAGES )

A LITTLE MORE ON LINDSAY'S WORK WE SHOULD THINK THROUGH .

HE STATES THAT FROM EVERY MAJOR BULL MARKET PEAK YOU LOOK FOR A MAJOR BOTTOM 

12 YEARS 3 MONTHS TO 12 YEARS 8 MONTHS FOLLOWING THAT PEAK . THE DOW PEAKED ON JAN 14 2000

THE SPX AND NASDAQ PEAKED ON MARCH 24TH 2000 . ( WE WILL DEAL WITH THE 2007 PEAK LATER IN THE DECADE )

KEEPING IT SIMPLE : JAN 14 2000 PLUS 12 YEARS 3 MONTHS TO 12 YEARS 8 MONTHS =APRIL 14 2012-SEPT 14 2012

USING THE NASDAQ AND SPX HIGH ON MARCH 24 2012 AND ADDING THE SAME TIME SPAN WE GET THE DATES OF :

JUNE 24 2012 TO NOV 24 2012 .IF THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME OF APRIL 14 2012 TO NOV 24 2012 IS SUPPOSED TO BE A 

CYCLE LOW IN THE ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET THEN HOW DO YOU THINK THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL 

ELECTIONS WILL GO ?? RECAP OF ALL : TIME SPANS CALL FOR A LOW :

SUBNORMAL =JAN 10 2012 .SHORT: APRIL 11 2012

AND A LONG DECLINE WOULD LAST INTO :JUNE 11 2012 ( THESE ARE JUST THE AVERAGES )

12 YRS 3 MONTHS EQUALS 147 MONTHS 12 YEARS 8 MONTHS = 152 MONTHS 

SPX MONTHLY

USING THE HIGHS OF 2000 IN THE DOW SPX AND NYA INDEXES AND THE 60 MONTH LOW TO LOW TO HIGH

TO LOW COUNT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A LOW IN OCT 2012 .

LINKEDIN

I RARELY MENTION INDIVIDUAL STOCKS SO TAKE ALL THIS AS A GRAIN OF SALT.

IF AND I WILL SAY IF ( THERE IS NO DATA TO SPEAK OF ON THIS STOCK .

IF WE SEE THE 67.50-61.34 PRICE RANGE TESTED AS OPTIONS BEGIN TRADING ON 

THIS I BELIEVE ON THURSDAY I WOULD CONSIDER BUYING A FEW CALLS .

ILL EXPLAIN THIS CHART NEXT WEEK 

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW .

THIS INDICATOR IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 20 DAYS OF TRADING SO IS A SLOW INDICATOR .

IT IS STILL HEADING LOWER EVEN THOUGH THE MARKET HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO BOTTOM 

BOTTOM LINE : THIS INDICATOR HAS ROOM TO MOVE LOWER AND ITS FAILURE TO TURN UP 

TAKEN AT FACE VALUE IS A BEARISH SIGN .

THIS IS A VERY LONG TERM INDICATOR AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE BOTTOM YOU CAN SEE

THIS GOES BACK TO 1936 ON THE DATA SHOWN .

TAKE NOTE OF THE .0007 LEVEL WHICH IS TYPICALLY AN OVERBOUGHT READING .

ON FEB 8 2011 THIS INDICATOR HIGH .0012 THAT WAS OVER AN 80 YEAR HIGH .

SEE BELOW THIS CHART FOR THE ZOOMED IN ON THIS .

SAME CHART AS ABOVE ZOOMED IN .

THE NOTE ON .007 BEING RARE CAN NOW BE UNDERSTOOD .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS MARKET IS EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT 

MAY 5 2011

SO FAR THE SPX IS ON TRACK WITH THE PATTERN SHOWN YESTERDAY .

WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE YET SHORT LIVED BOUNCE BACK TOWARDS 1349-1352

FOLLOWED BY A LARGER DECLINE TO THE 1290 AREA .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

MAY 4TH 2011

THIS IS MID DAY YET THOUGHT ID SHARE THE PATTERN IM FOLLOWING IN THE EMINI SP 500 FUTURES CONTRACT.

EXPECT A BOUNCE FROM 1330.50-1327.25 . KEY RESISTANCE IS NOW 1353.50 .

DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE IS BACK TO POINT 10 AT 1290.25

THE CASH SPX LABELED A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY YET STILL HAS THE SAME PATTERN

MAY 1 2011

IM GOING TO BEGIN TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE ON THE STOCK MARKET 

INDEX'S THIS NEXT WEEK . IM PRESENTLY WORKING SO DON'T HAVE TIME 

TO FINISH UP THIS UPDATE WITH INDICATORS YET WILL DO SO ON 

MONDAYS UPDATE . TODAY IS MORE ABOUT TIMING YET PRICE LEVELS

ARE NOTED.

SP 500 1973-1978

AFTER A STEEP DECLINE IN 1973-1974 THIS INDEX WENT UP FOR 

23 MONTHS PULLED BACK THEN PEAKED ON MONTH 26 .

THE .786 RETRACEMENT LEVEL WAS THE KEY LEVEL.

2007-2011

AFTER A STEEP DECLINE THIS INDEX ROSE FOR 23 MONTHS PULLED BACK 

AND IS NOW ENTERING ITS 26 MONTH AND IS TESTING ITS .786 RETRACEMENT LEVEL

BOTTOM LINE 1381.49 SHOULD BE SOLD SHORT .

NASDAQ 100

FROM OCT 2002 TO OCT 2007 THE NASDAQ 100 WENT UP FOR 60 MONTHS

FROM NOV 2008 TO DATE THIS INDEX IS NOW ENTERING ITS 30 MONTH 

2462.84 IS WHERE THE MOVE FROM NOV 2008 TO DATE WOULD EQUAL 

THE MOVE FROM 2002 TO 2007 YET TIME WISE IT WILL BE 1/2 .

TAKE NOTE OF THE BLACK TREND LINE , 

LASTLY WHAT IS EXACTLY 1/2 OF THE MARCH 2000 TOP AT 4816.35 ?

2408.17. KEEP THIS IN MIND 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT IS A 20 YEAR TREND LINE IN BLACK

TRANSPORTS

THIS INDEX MUST FEEL  LONELY AT NEW ALL TIME HIGH'S.

NOTE THE 52 MONTH RALLY FROM 2003 TO 2007.

THIS INDEX IS NOW ENTERING ITS 26 MONTH FROM MARCH 2009 LOWS

LIKE THE NASDAQ THE LEVEL 5752.66 WILL BE 2 EQUAL POINT MOVES

IN 1/2 THE TIME . 

DOW

FROM WEEKS OF MARCH 2 2009 SEPT 28 2009 TO APRIL 26 2010 THE DOW COMPLETED A LOW 

TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT . EXTENDING THAT COUNT FURTHER YOU GET THE WEEK OF JUNE 20TH

( WHICH IS A LOW TO HIGH TO HIGH COUNT  AND A LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT )

YET ON A SMALLER SCALE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING DATES .

JUNE 28 2010 ( LOW ),NOV 29 2010 ( LOW ) AND THE WEEK OF MAY 2 2011 ( HIGH ) . 

BOTTOM LINE . I HAVE TO BECOME BEARISH THE STOCK MARKET AT THIS JUNCTURE 

APRIL 14 2011

JUST LAYING OUT SCENARIO'S TODAY .

TAKE THE TIME TO DO SOME THINKING THIS WEEKEND AS TO 

HOW YOU WANT TO PREPARE FOR THE COMING BEAR MARKET .

TODAY'S UPDATE SHOWS A FEW EXTREMES TO CONSIDER .

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY APRIL 19TH 

MONTHLY SILVER 

TAKE NOT OF THE INDICATORS ON THIS CHART . 

KEEP IN MIND SINCE THIS IS A MONTHLY CHART WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 

INDICATORS IN THIS AREA OR HIGHER AT MONTH END .

SPX

SEE 1974-1977 BELOW THIS .

BOTTOM LINE : 1381.49 WOULD BE A STARTING POINT FOR BEARISH POSITIONS IN EARLY MAY 

IF WE SEE A THRUST HIGHER FROM HERE ( WHICH I TEND TO DOUBT BUT WHO KNOWS RIGHT ? )

23 MONTHS UP DIP 26 MONTHS UP =MAY ( TOP ? ) SEE CHART BELOW THIS .

1973-1978

23 MONTHS UP DIP 26 MONTHS UP TOP ( FROM THE BOTTOM ) SEE ABOVE 

XLE

THIS ETF HAS SLIGHTLY BROKEN ABOVE THE 80.87 EXTREME I HAVE CAUTIONED ABOUT . SO FAR THE HIGH 

HAS BEEN 80.97 . THE NEXT HIGHER LEVEL SURROUNDS 85.26 .SUPPORT SITS JUST BELOW 76.29 AT 

75.00 . THIS NEXT CYCLE DOWN WILL BE A TIME TO RE CONSIDER MY LONGER TERM BEARISH STANCE.

AT THIS TIME IM HOLDING TO MY BEARISH POSITIONS . 

CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL IS NOW INTO ITS RESISTANCE BAND OF 107.89-113.05 .

C = A AT 113.05 . THIS LEVEL IS NOW A KEY LEVEL LONG TERM .

A LARGER SPIKE UP TO 120 WOULD BE A RE TEST OF THE UNDER SIDE OF THE 

UP TREND LINE AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF SEEN .

TRANSPORTS MONTHLY 

THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE A NO COMMENT CHART TO CREATE SOME THOUGHT .

WILL THE TRANSPORTS MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ??

KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE 5752.66 LEVEL IF THEY DO.

APRIL 1 2011

AS WE MOVE FORWARD THIS YEAR WE NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT THE DURATION 

OF PRIOR BULL MARKETS . USING THE WORK OF GEORGE LINDSAY HE CREATED WHAT HE TERMED

STANDARD TIME SPANS OF BASIC ADVANCES . HE BROKE THEM DOWN INTO 4 CATEGORIES.

SUB NORMAL LASTING 414 TO 684 CALENDAR DAYS ,SHORT LASTING 704-739 CALENDAR DAYS

LONG, LASTING 770-831 CALENDAR DAYS AND EXTENDED, LASTING 930 TO 991 CALENDAR DAYS .

HE STATES THAT FROM 1861 TO 1985 ( THE DATA SET RESEARCHED ) THAT THERE HAS NEVER BEEN

2 BACK TO BACK EXTENDED RALLIES IN HISTORY. THAT SAID BACK IN MARCH 2009 I WAS THEREFORE

LOOKING FOR A SUB NORMAL OR SHORT ADVANCE . WE ARE NOW INTO THE TIME PERIOD OF A LONG 

ADVANCE. BASED ON HISTORY THIS BULL MARKET MUST END NO LATER THAN JUNE 18 2011.

THIS IMPLIES WE SHOULD TAKE A BEARISH STANCE ON MAY 2ND AND AGAIN ON THE DATES 

SURROUNDING JUNE 8TH INTO JUNE 15TH 2011.

TO ADD TO THIS WE HAVE A WEEKLY LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT AS WELL AS A LOW TO HIGH

TO HIGH COUNT ALL IN THE SAME WEEK AS THESE TIME SPANS EXPIRE , WE ALSO ENTER A 

BEARISH PUETZ WINDOW .

THIS IS GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT 

BOTTOM LINE : JUNE 9TH TO JUNE 15TH SHOULD BE FORMING AN IMPORTANT HIGH 

IN THE STOCK MARKET AVERAGES , THE WEEK OF JUNE 20TH 2011 SHOULD BE THE ONSET 

OF AT A MINIMUM A 10 MONTH BEAR MARKET .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE IN ABOUT A WEEK .

WE ARE COMING INTO A TURN DATE ON APRIL 4TH ( NEXT WEEK ) 

IM NOT SURE HOW FAR THE MARKET WILL TURN DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE .

THE BEST BEARISH SET UPS LOOK TO BE MAY 2ND AND AGAIN JUNE 9TH-15TH

IF THE CORRELATIONS NOTED ABOVE MARK THE TOP OF THIS BULL MARKET 

FROM MARCH 2009 THE THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN JUNE 15TH INTO JULY 1ST 

SHOULD BE EXTREMELY BEARISH !!!!!

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

DOW

THERE IS MANY CONFLICTING CYCLES AND TO NAIL THEM ALL DOWN IS DIFFICULT .

THE POINT OF ALL THIS IS TO GIVE YOU THE TOOLS TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION .

OVERALL THE MARKET SHOULD BE PUTTING IN A LONGER TERM TOP AND FROM THIS TOP

I AM LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES INTO MID TO LATE 2012

BOTTOM LINE : IM NOT CONVINCED THE MARKET IS AT ITS PEAK , HOWEVER '

THE EARLY MAY TIME PERIOD ( MAY 3RD MAY 9TH ) IS AN IMPORTANT TIME PERIOD 

BASED ON LINDSAY TIME SPANS OF BULL MARKETS . A FURTHER MOVE HIGHER PAST 

THIS TIME PERIOD POINTS US TO AUGUST 20TH AND FROM THERE WE WILL FOCUS 

MORE CLOSELY ON THE 58 YEAR CYCLE AS WELL AS THE TIMING MODEL AND GET THIS

ALL LINED UP .

ILL BE GONE FOR A FEW DAYS YET SHOULD BE ABLE TO UPDATE APRIL 1 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

AT THE END OF THE DAY THE MARKET IS ALWAYS CORRECT . HISTORY IS JUST A VIEW 

OF PAST PERFORMANCE AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS . PLEASE DO YOUR 

OWN RESEARCH AND TRADE ACCORDINGLY . THE TIMING MODEL IF IT IS GOING TO 

WORK POINTS TO THE NEXT TURN ON MONDAY APRIL 4TH 2011.

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

MARCH 20 2011

1973-1978 SPX MONTHLY

2007-2011 SPX MONTHLY

1381 IS THE NEXT HIGHER RESISTANCE LEVEL

THERE IS A REASON WHY I SHOW THE CHARTS ABOVE . FIRST OF ALL IS THERE AN 

INVERSION TAKING PLACE WITH THE TIMING MODEL ??? IF SO THEN MONDAY WOULD

BE SOME SORT OF TOP AND MORE DOWNSIDE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY APRIL

NOTE : MAJOR HIGH ? JULY 9-18TH ON TIMING MODEL . 

HERE IS THE MATH BASED ON THE WEEKLY CHART.

SHORT TERM RESISTANCE IS 12024 THIS LEVEL NEEDS TO HOLD OR IT WILL POINT TO 

A CONTINUED UP TREND

XLE

LAST WEEKS DECLINE WAS CONSTRUCTIVE FOR THE BEARISH SIDE OF THIS ETF.

NEXT WEEK BEING OPTIONS EXPIRATION LEAVES ME A BIT MIXED AS TO HOW 

TO CALL THE SHORT TERM TREND ON THIS .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS ETF BROKE 75.00 YET FAILED TO MAKE NEW MONTHLY LOWS 

IT ALSO CLOSED RIGHT NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE UP TREND LINE .

IM STAYING BEARISH YET NOT GOING TO ADD TO MY BEARISH STANCE AT THIS TIME .

XLE 

THIS WEEK IS A KEY WEEK FOR THIS ETF .

I STATED BEFORE THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN ACCELERATION DOWN ON THIS ETF THIS WEEK.

A BREAK BELOW 75 TARGETS 65.36-61.64 INTO THE WEEK OF MAY 2 2011.

BOTTOM LINE : KEEP AN EYE ON THE DOLLAR 

MARCH 5 2011

WATCH CRUDE OIL IN THE RANGE OF 107-113

XLE

THIS INDEX STILL HAS UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO PEAK .

THE KEY PRICE THAT MUST HOLD IS 80.87 .

MARCH 1 2011

XLE WEEKLY CHART

KEY RESISTANCE IS 80.87 , THIS LEVEL MUST HOLD FOR THE BEARISH CASE.

AN ACCELERATION DOWN MUST BEGIN THE WEEK OF MARCH 7TH ( NEXT WEEK ) 

TARGET ZONE IS 65.36-61.64 INTO THE WEEK OF MAY 2ND 2011.

DOW DAILY CHART 

IT APPEARS THAT THE DOW HAS FORMED A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION .

KEY RESISTANCE IS NOW THIS WEEKS HIGH AT 12261.38 

INITIAL DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 11869.04-11853.26 WITH LOWER TARGETS ONCE THIS LEVEL IS 

BROKEN . BREAKING BELOW 11853 BEFORE MARCH 4TH WOULD TARGET 11629-11609 INTO 

MARCH 4TH . ( TOUGH TO CALL IT AT THIS POINT ) 

NO CHANGE ON US DOLLAR INDEX ( IT SHOULD BE BOTTOMING OVER THE COMING DAYS )

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE THURSDAY 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

FEB 23 2011

XLE 15 MINUTE CHART 

THE XLE HAD A 15 MINUTE TIMELINE THAT RAN INTO THE CLOSE TODAY 

IF THIS TRIANGLE IS GOING TO BRING HIGHER PRICES THEN THIS INDEX

MUST RISE FROM THE OPEN TOMORROW .

KEEP IN MIND THE LONGER TERM CHART I NOTED EARLIER TODAY .

FAILED TRIANGLES TEND TO BRING LARGER DECLINES AND I NOW HAVE 

A BEARISH BIAS ON THIS INDEX ON A LONGER TERM BASIS .

KEY SUPPORT IS 77.60

A BREAK BELOW 77.60 WILL ARGUE THAT A TOP IS IN PLACE AT LEAST SHORT TERM

LONGER TERM IM TARGETING THE 65 LEVEL .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

SEE CHART BELOW THIS FOR THE LARGER PICTURE

XLE WEEKLY CHART

THIS INDEX SHOULD BE PUTTING IN AT A MINIMUM A POINT 15 TOP WHICH IMPLIES

A SIDEWAYS TREND TO FOLLOW . HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH LARGER 

TOP COULD BE IN THE MAKING . LOOKING AT THIS INDEX USING PERCENTAGE PRICE 

MOVEMENTS THE CASE CAN BE MADE THAT THE 79.85-80.87 PRICE RANGE WILL PROVE 

TO BE A TOP OF IMPORTANCE . 

TAKE THE TIME TO READ THE CHART THE NOTES ARE ALL THERE .

2 EQUAL TIME MOVES AND 2 EQUAL PERCENTAGE MOVES AND A 36 WEEK TOP TO TOP COUNT

ALL POINT TO A HIGH FORMING NOW !!!!!!!

FEB 14

S & P 500 MONTHLY 

1973 TO 1978 

NOTE THE .786 PRICE RETRACEMENT

12144 IS NOW SUPPORT ON THE DOW 

KEYS DATES : FEB 27 2011, MAY 9 2011 

NEXT UPDATE , FRIDAY MORNING FEB 18 2011

GOOD LUCK TRADING

S & P 500 MONTHLY

2007-2011

BASICALLY THE CHART ABOVE INDICATES THE MARKET TOPPING NOW YET 

NO REAL DECLINE UNTIL AFTER MAY 2011 . THE KEY PRICE LEVEL WOULD 

BE 1381 ON THE S&P 500 .

DOW WEEKLY CHART

THE DOW HAS COME INTO ITS YEARLY PIVOT RESISTANCE BAND AND SO FAR HAS FAILED

TO CLOSE ON A WEEKLY BASIS ABOVE EVEN ITS LOWER R1 LEVEL.

A FURTHER BREAK DOWN FROM HERE MUST BE SEEN TO GIVE A SOLID SELL SIGNAL.

YEARLY SUPPORT SITS AT 10875.41 ( THE YEARLY PIVOT )

FOR QUESTION OR COMMENTS    notifyme@tradersaffiliates.com   

IF YOU WANT NOTIFICATION OF UPDATES WHEN THEY ARE PUBLISHED FEEL FREE TO WRITE ME AT THE EMAIL 

ADDRESS ABOVE . 

THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING -PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. WHILE I DO MY BEST TO KEEP AHEAD OF THE MARKET AND ITS MOVES . THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN I AM COMPLETELY WRONG . PLEASE USE YOUR OWN DISCRESSION WHEN TRADING AND USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM  LOSSES

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