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CLICK HERE FOR KEY LEVELS ( UPDATED JAN 2 2010 )

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CHART UPDATED FEB 26 2010 (CLOSE )

EVERY YEAR FROM NOVEMBER TO FEB I USUALLY SEE AN INVERSION TAKE PLACE

NEXT TURN DATE IS MARCH 1 ( A HIGH IS DUE )

RED LINE IS DOW DAILY CLOSE

TRADING LOG FOR 2010.

THE PURPOSE OF THIS LOG IS TO SHOW ACTUAL TRADING INCLUDING

COMMISSIONS USING A FULL SERVICE BROKER .

AS YOU CAN SEE COMMISSIONS ( FEE'S ) EAT UP TRADE RESULTS

OPEN POSITIONS: LONG 2 MARCH QQQQ 45 PUTS

SEE BELOW FOR SHORT TERM TRADING

.....................

HIT REFRESH FOR THE LATEST UPDATES

----------------

NOTE : UPDATE BELOW

MARCH 7TH

IF ALL GOES WELL WORK WISE I WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO UPDATE THIS PAGE

FROM AROUND MARCH 15-20TH . IT APPEARS THE SPX IS GOING TO HEAD UP AND TEST THE

HIGH AND POSSIBLY FILL THE GAP AT 1150.23 . AT THE MOMENT THOUGH THIS INDEX IS

PUTTING IN A 3RD WAVE PEAK . THIS PEAK CAN BE VIEWED 2 WAYS . NUMBER 1 IT IS ONLY 3

WAVES UP FROM THE LOWS 1144.50 . AN A B C DECLINE BACK TO THE PREVIOUS 4TH WAVE OF

1 LESSER DEGREE SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT A MINIMUM . YET MANY TIMES I HAVE SEEN WAVE 4'S

COME BACK IN THE RANGE OF A .50 % RETRACEMENT OF THE PRIOR 3RD WAVE AS WELL AS A

.382 % RETRACEMENT OF WAVES 1 THROUGH 3 . THIS LEAVES US WITH A SUPPORT RANGE FOR WAVE 4

IN THE RANGE OF 1107.72-1092.48. THE OTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS IS WE ARE FORMING A TRIANGLE

IF THIS PROVES TO BE THE CASE THEN THE SUPPORT RANGE BECOMES 1084-1069 IN WHAT WILL BE LABELED

WAVE C . THIS WOULD THEN LEAD TO A MORE COMPLEX 3 WAVE NARROWING TRADING RANGE AS

WAVES D AND E UNFOLD.

IN EITHER CASE I WOULD EXPECT A DECLINE TO UNFOLD OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEK .

LONGER TERM I STILL FEEL THE OVERALL MARKET TREND SHOULD BE HIGHER INTO AUGUST .

GOOD LUCK TRADING , NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY .

MARCH 2

THIS VERY EARLY MORNING AND I WANT TO NOTE A FEW THINGS IM NOTICING .

WHEN YOUR COUNTING FROM A HIGH POINT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A LOW AND

WHEN COUNTING FROM A LOW YOUR LOOKING FOR A HIGH . WHEN I LOOK AT THIS

MID SECTION COUNT THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THE MARCH 1 IN TERMS OF CALENDAR

DAYS BEING A LOW . LINDSAY STATED THAT SOME TIMES POINT C CAN BE USED .

IF YOU LOOK AT THE BLUE E ON APRIL 2 2009 YOU CAN SEE HOW I COME UP WITH THE

MARCH 15 16TH DATE FOR A LOW ( THIS LINES UP WITH TIMING MODEL ) HOW EVER

THE MAJOR COUNT BEING THE RED ON THE BOTTOM OF THIS CHART OBVIOUSLY IS NOT

CORRECT SINCE WE ARE NOT SEEING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW . IN THIS CASE WE WILL NEED

TO USE POINT C . IM HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY AT THE MOMENT GETTING THIS ALL TOGETHER

YET MY NOTES ARE ON THIS CHART WHICH I WILL UPDATE OVER THE COMING DAYS .

WHAT WE WILL NEED TO DO IS BEGIN THE COUNT FROM POINT C TO THE SEPT 23RD HIGH

AND THEN COUNT FORWARD THE SAME AMOUNT OF CALENDAR DAYS FROM SEPT 23 2009

TO ARRIVE AT THE POTENTIAL POINT A LOW . THIS ADDS FROM THE LOOKS OF IT ABOUT 15 TRADING

DAYS WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY MARCH 18TH FOR A LOW . ILL NEED TO ACTUALLY DO BOTH COUNTS

( TRADING DAYS AND CALENDAR DAYS ) BEFORE I PUT THE DATE ON THE CHART . YOU HAVE THE NOTES THOUGH

FOR YOUR OWN RESEARCH .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE TUESDAY OR LATE SATURDAY DEPENDING ON MY WORK SCHEDULE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

MARCH 1

FILLED ON QQQQ MARCH 45 PUTS

FEB 28

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE TURNED DOWN FROM IT'S FEB 22 HIGH

TYPICALLY THIS INDICATOR WILL TURN FIRST AND GIVE A WARNING SIGN

BEFORE THE MARKET TURNS .

BOTTOM LINE: ANY NEW HIGHS MONDAY IN THE STOCK INDEX'S WILL MOST LIKELY

GIVE A NON CONFIRMATION ( THIS INDICATOR SHOULD FAIL TO MAKE A NEW HIGH AS THE INDEX'S

MAKE A SLIGHT NEW HIGH ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGH'S )

10 DAY TRIN

ON FEB 19 TH THE 10 TRIN CLOSED AT 1.00 . I NOTED THEN THAT TECHNICALLY IT WAS NOT A VALID

SELL SIGNAL BECAUSE IT DID NOT CLOSE BELOW 1.00 AND THEN TURN BACK UP AND CLOSE ABOVE.

I ALSO NOTED THAT IT WAS A BEARISH SIGN YET BECAUSE OF THE STOCHASTIC I WOULD ALSO CONSIDER

IT SOMEWHAT BULLISH .

OVERALL I WOULD CONSIDER THIS INDICATOR MIXED TO BEARISH

VIX PLUS VXO

THE MONTHLY VIX PLUS VXO JUST CLOSED AT A NEW MONTHLY CLOSING LOW

AND IS TESTING SEVERAL TREND LINES . IT IS DOWN ROUGHLY 86 % FROM ITS HIGH'S

WEEKLY PUT CALL RATIO

THIS CHART SERVES TO SHOW THE RISK OF BEING BEARISH .

HAD YOU TURNED BEARISH FEB 27 2007 YOU WOULD HAVE LOST MONEY ON A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM BASIS

TURNING BEARISH JULY 7 2008 ?? YOU COULD HAVE MADE MONEY YET YOU WOULD HAVE HAD TO BE QUICK .

NOV 17 2008 ? AGAIN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM YOU WOULD HAVE LOST MONEY UNLESS YOU WERE VERY QUICK

FEB 16 2009 ?? ANOTHER WASH OUT

SEPT 28 2009 ? 4 DAYS DOWN AND A REVERSAL

SO WHAT ABOUT FEB 15 2010 ?? MY CYCLES CALL FOR A SHORT TERM HIGH ON MONDAY . THE 10 DAY ADVANCE

DECLINE LINE HAS ALREADY TURNED DOWN , THE 10 DAY TRIN IS MIXED TO BEARISH , THE VIX PLUS VXO

IS TESTING ITS LOWER TREND LINE AND SHOULD POP TO THE UPSIDE AND EVERYONE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE BEARISH

WHEN LOOKING AT THE PUT CALL RATIO . HISTORICALLY READING LIKE THIS GIVE SHORT TERM MOVES

AND THE THE MARKET RALLY'S .

BOTTOM LINE : IM LONGER TERM BULLISH INTO AUGUST YET ONLY BEARISH INTO MID MARCH AND FROM THERE

I INTEND TO TAKE A BULLISH STANCE .

THE RISK OF FURTHER RALLY SHOULD BE RESPECTED !!!

THE SPX SHOULD BE PUTTING IN SOME SORT OF HIGH YET MY BIAS IS TO SEE MONDAYS MARKET ACTION

I STILL FAVOR A MOVE UP INTO THE 1116 1118 RANGE AS NOTED FEB 25

THE QQQQ IS PROBABLY WHERE ILL TAKE MY TRADE THOUGH .

ILL LOOK TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE IN THE RANGE OF 45.10 - 45.31 WITH A TARGET TOWARDS 43.34

42.64 MUST HOLD OR THIS WAVE COUNT IS VERY VERY WRONG .

BOTTOM LINE : IF THE QQQQ CAN HOLD ABOVE 42.64 INTO THE MARCH 15 16TH CYCLE LOW

THEN IT'S NEXT UPSIDE PROJECTION WILL BE 48.00

THE MOVE FROM MARCH 15 16TH WOULD THEN BE LABELED WAVE III OF 3

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

FEB 25

SO FAR THIS WEEKS ACTION HAS BEEN UP ONE DAY DOWN THE NEXT YET THE WAVE

COUNT I WAS LOOKING FOR IS A BIT OFF . FOR INSTANCE TODAY'S LOWS HELD

1084.97 BUT IN DOING SO DELAYED THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS A NEW SHORT TERM HIGH

FROM THE RECENT LOWS AT 1044.50 WHICH WAS SEEN ON FEB 5TH .

THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS SIMPLE . IS THIS A DEVELOPING 5 WAVES TO THE UPSIDE ?

OR JUST A SIMPLE A B C MOVE INTO MARCH 1ST WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOVE TO

A SLIGHT NEW LOW INTO MARCH 15-16TH ?

THE KEY WILL BE THE 1116.48 TO 1118.82 RESISTANCE LEVEL AS WELL AS THE 1084.97 SUPPORT

LEVEL WHICH IS THE MUST HOLD LEVEL SHORT TERM .

BOTTOM LINE : THERE IS STILL 2 TRADING DAYS LEFT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH

SO FAR WE ONLY HAVE 3 DEVELOPED WAVES WHICH ARE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETE

BUT WOULD LOOK MUCH CLEANER WITH A SLIGHT NEW HIGH INTO THE RESISTANCE LEVELS JUST NOTED

MY BIAS WILL BE TO LOWER MY EXPECTATION GOING INTO MONDAY AND TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE

INTO THIS RESISTANCE RANGE OF 1116.48-1118.82. THE RISK ON THIS TRADE IS DRAWN OUT IN HOW

5 WAVES UP WOULD LOOK LIKE .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

FEB 23

TODAY'S DECLINE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A SHORT TERM WAVE IV OF A DEVELOPING

5 WAVE IMPULSE FROM THE RECENT LOWS . THIS COUNT IS SPECULATIVE AND IS CONSIDERING

THE SHORT TERM HIGH ON MARCH 1 ST AS THE 5TH WAVE PEAK . SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TIME

LEFT THE SWINGS TO EXPECT WOULD BE UP AND DOWN JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THE REST OF THE WEEK

THIS KIND OF TRADING ACTION IS DIFFICULT TO TRADE WITH OUT BEING THERE EVERYDAY.

MY BIAS IS TO SIT OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AND TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE ON MONDAY

ONCE I SEE WEATHER OR NOT THE MARKET IS PUTTING IN A TOP WHICH I THINK IT WILL BE .

KEY RESISTANCE ON THE SPX IS THE RANGE OF 1138 - 1150 .45 ( THE GAP MAY BE FILLED )

BOTTOM LINE : IM LOOKING FOR A TEST OF THE HIGH'S TO TURN BEARISH AGAINST.

FEB 22

I WILL POST A SHORT TERM WAVE COUNT ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY'S UPDATE IS MOSTLY A BIGGER PICTURE VIEW .

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS NOW IN ITS UPPER RANGE

THIS IS A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM TOPPING SIGN .

THE NEXT TURN DATE IS MARCH 1ST . I WOULD BE HESITANT TO TAKE A BULLISH

STANCE AT THIS JUNCTURE .

10 DAY TRIN

THE 10 DAY TRIN IS GIVING AN OVERBOUGHT READING WHICH ALSO IS CONSIDERED BEARISH

HOW EVER THIS HAS NOT GIVEN A VALID SELL SIGNAL . TECHNICALLY YOU LOOK FOR A CLOSE

BELOW 1.00 FOLLOWED BY A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 1.00 . SO FAR WE GOT A CLOSE AT 1.00

I STILL VIEW THIS AS BEARISH .

WITH A SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH DUE MARCH 1ST MY BIAS IS BEARISH EVEN THOUGH

I DO NOT INTEND TO TAKE ANY TRADES UNTIL NEXT WEEK .

MAKE A NOTE OF THE STOCHASTIC ON THIS CHART . THEY IMPLY MORE DOWNSIDE

LEFT IN THIS INDICATOR ( THIS IS STILL A BULLISH SIGN DESPITE THE OVERBOUGHT READING )

BOTTOM LINE : THE MARKET IS CONSIDERED OVERBOUGHT YET TIME SAYS WAIT BEFORE

TAKING A BEARISH STANCE .

INVERTED 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN

I MADE THE CASE THE OTHER DAY THAT THE DOW IS TRACING OUT A LONGER TERM IMPULSIVE 5 WAVE PATTERN

FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOWS . AS MUCH AS I FAVOR THE WAVE COUNT ( FROM PRIOR UPDATE )

WE STILL HAVE A BEARISH CYCLE FROM MARCH 1ST INTO MARCH 15 16TH TO GET THROUGH .

IF WE SEE 5 CLEAN WAVES UP FROM THE RECENT LOWS THEN ILL LABEL POINT 27 IN PLACE .

UNTIL THEN WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET WITH THE BEARISH POTENTIAL ,

GIVEN THE OVERBOUGHT READINGS NOTED ABOVE .

LOWER SUPPORT ON THE DOW WOULD BE DOWN TOWARDS 9629-9538 .

DOW YEARLY PIVOT

THE 9 WEEK RSI ON THE DOW IS THE BLUE LINE .THE 10000 LEVEL IS IMPORTANT SINCE IT

IS ALSO A TREND LINE SUPPORT YET BREAKING BELOW IT DOES NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS IM

CONCERNED . THE YEARLY PIVOT SITS AT 9111.04 KEY RESISTANCE FOR THE YEAR

SITS IN THE RANGE OF 11166-11651 . ALSO WE SHOULD SEE A YEARLY RANGE THIS YEAR

OF ROUGHLY 3200 POINTS .MY BIAS IS STILL BULLISH INTO AUGUST BEFORE A LARGER DECLINE

UNFOLDS . HOWEVER THE UPSIDE DOES SEEM TO BE A BIT LIMITED .

BOTTOM LINE : LONGER TERM I THINK THE HIGHER LEVELS WILL BE BETTER POSITION TRADES

TO BE BEARISH . SHORTER TERM I AM WAITING FOR THE WEEK TO END BEFORE TAKING A SHORT

TERM BEARISH STANCE .

FEB 21

THERE WAS AN ERROR IN MY NOTES ON LAST TRADE .

COST WAS 86 EXIT OF NET 104 EQUALS JUST OVER 20 PERCENT

ILL UPDATE AFTER CLOSE TODAY.

FEB 18

CLOSED LONG 1 FEB 46 PUT , 8.03 % GAIN. THERE WAS ALSO A GAIN MADE BY

BEING SHORT THE 44 PUT WHICH EXPIRES FRIDAY .

SOMETIMES GETTING YOUR MONEY BACK IS BETTER THEN LETTING IT SLIP AWAY .

TAKE NOTE THE TRADE ACCOUNT IS NOW UP 37.82 % PERCENT FOR THE YEAR.

ONCE OPTIONS EXPIRE THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVE TRADES UNTIL THE NEXT

SHORT TERM CYCLE TURN DATE WHICH IS MARCH 1ST .

FEB 18

THE DECLINE FROM THE JAN 19TH HIGH IN THE SPX INDEX IS BEST COUNTED AS 3 WAVES DOWN

IN THE FUTURES THOUGH I CAN COUNT IT AS 5 . MY BIAS IS THE CASH INDEX HENCE ONLY 3 WAVES

MY GUESS IS WE SEE MORE SIDEWAYS MOVEMENTS INTO EITHER MARCH 1ST OR 15TH

YET WHEN LOOKING AT BOTH LINDSAY'S TIME COUNTS FROM THE MID SECTION AS WELL AS MY

OWN CYCLES WORK MY INTENSION IS TO STAY BULLISH INTO MARCH 1ST AND TO TAKE A LONGER TERM

BULLISH STANCE FROM MARCH 15TH INTO EARLY AUGUST .

BOTTOM LINE : TIME IS BEING SATISFIED AND WEATHER WE DO SEE A LOWER LOW OR NOT INTO THE MARCH 15TH

CYCLE LOW ( FROM AN EARLY MARCH HIGH ) I HAVE TO STAY WITH MY LONGER TERM BULLISH BIAS INTO

EARLY AUGUST .

DOW

IT IS LOOKING TO ME LIKE WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGE OF A 5TH WAVE TO THE UPSIDE FROM THE MARCH 2009

LOWS . THIS IMPLIES THAT ONCE WE DO SEE WAVE 5 COMPLETE IN EARLY AUGUST . THE DECLINE THAT FOLLOWS

SHOULD HOLD ABOVE THE MARCH 2009 LOWS . THIS ALSO IMPLIES SOME SLOPPY 3 WAVE MOVES OVER THE NEXT

YEAR OR 2 BEFORE ANY REAL STRONG LONGER TERM BULLISH TRADING .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY FEB 23RD

FEB 8

THERE IS STILL A FEW DAYS LEFT BEFORE THE FEB 15 CYCLE LOW . THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR

IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERSOLD . AS NOTED IN THE JAN 23 UPDATE BELOW

ID STILL LIKE TO SEE THIS MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE DOWNSIDE BEFORE TAKING A BULLISH

POSITION .

10 DAY TRIN

THE 10 TRIN STILL IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD . OVERSOLD READINGS ARE UP NEAR 1.40

THIS STILL LEAVES ROOM FOR MORE DOWNSIDE .

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE MADE ITS MOMENTUM LOW MOST LIKELY JAN 29TH .

WHAT WE WILL WANT TO SEE IN THE COMING DAYS INTO JAN 15TH IS THIS INDICATOR

MAKE A HIGHER LOW ( ABOVE THE JAN 29 LOW ) AS THE 10 TRIN MOVES UP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY

ABOVE 1.40 AND THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR MOVES TOWARDS A READING OF .39.

IF THESE 3 INDICATORS LINE UP THEN THIS WILL BE THE BULLISH SET UP .

UNTIL THEN IM JUST LETTING THE MARKET FINISH UP ON THIS DOWNSIDE MOVE .

IM STILL LONG THE FEB 46 PUT AND SORT THE 44 PUT ON THE QQQQ.

BOTTOM LINE:

WE WANT TO START LOOKING FOR BULLISH SET UPS .

FEB 6

WITH WORK TAKING ME AWAY IM DIGGING FEW SEVERAL INDICATORS THIS WEEKEND

AT THE MOMENT I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING GIVING ME SOLID OVERSOLD READINGS

TO TURN ME BULLISH .

THE SP 500 FUTURES THOUGH DO APPEAR TO HAVE 5 WAVES DOWN

BUT THE CASH INDEX DOES NOT ( $SPX ).

TIME WISE WE STILL HAVE A SHORT TERM CYCLE LOW DUE FEB 15TH WHICH IS

STILL ANOTHER 5 TRADING DAYS AWAY . THE PRICE RANGE I WAS LOOKING FOR

ON THE SPX HAS ALREADY BEEN SATISFIED YET WE STILL HAVE INTO MID MARCH

CYCLE WISE BEFORE WE WANT TO POSITION LONGER TERM FOR AN UPSIDE MOVE .

SHOWN BELOW IS THE LINDSAY MID SECTION COUNT WHICH ALSO STILL LEAVES ROOM

IN TERMS OF TIME BEFORE IM WILLING TO TAKE A BULLISH STANCE .

BOTTOM LINE : I DON'T SEE ANY SOLID OVERSOLD READINGS AT THIS JUNCTURE .

THE WAVE COUNT IS MIXED ( 5 WAVES DOWN ON THE FUTURES YET NOT ON CASH INDEX )

FOR NOW IM JUST GOING TO TO GIVE THIS MARKET MORE TIME

DOW

THE INVERTED 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ON THE DOW IS BEST COUNTED AS POINT 27

I HAVE WAITED AND WAITED FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT . THE 9200 LEVEL WOULD BE IDEAL

YET IS NOT REQUIRED . WHAT IS REQUIRED THOUGH IS A SLUGGISH WEEK NEXT WEEK

FOLLOWED BY A RALLY FROM FEB 15TH INTO EARLY MARCH .FOLLOWED BY A LOW

ON MARCH 15 16TH . I HAVE NOTED THE 2 DATES IN THE LINDSAY MID SECTION COUNT ABOVE

IN PRIOR UPDATES , YET WHEN LOOKING AT THE TIMING MODEL I HAVE TO GO WITH MID MARCH

FOR THE SWING LOW . WEATHER IT IS A HIGHER LOW OR LOWER LOW IS NOT IMPORTANT AS FAR

AS IM CONCERNED . ( IT WILL PROBABLY BE A LOWER LOW THOUGH )

I SHOULD BE ABLE TO UPDATE THIS WEB PAGE MONDAY AFTER THE CLOSE ( FEB 9TH )

JAN 27

I DON'T SEE 5 WAVES DOWN ON THE NASDAQ 100

THE QQQQ APPEAR TO BE HOLD 44.00 AS SUPPORT

IM STILL LONG 1 46 FEB PUT AND SHORT 1 FEB 44 PUT .

IM UNABLE DO TO WORK TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT

SPREAD TRADE . I WILL LOOK TO REMOVE THE SHORT PUT

BELOW 30 CENTS OTHERWISE ILL HOLD BOTH INTO

EXPIRATION .

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE TURNED UP TODAY .

THIS IS A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM BULLISH SIGN .

THERE IS NOW 3 WAVES DOWN ON THE NASDAQ 100 .

A FAILURE TO MAKE ANOTHER LOW IS A BULLISH SIGNAL .

TO ADD TO THIS THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE TURNED UP .

KEY RESISTANCE IS NOW 1831.12 TO 1843.32 .

I WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

NEXT UPDATE SHOULD BE FEB 2ND .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

JAN 23

BOTTOM LINE THE MARKET IS BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERSOLD , HOWEVER WE DO NOT HAVE

ANY BULLISH DIVERGENCES SHOWING UP TO JUSTIFY HAVING A BULLISH BIAS . AT BEST

WE WILL SEE A BOUNCE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A 4TH WAVE WITH LOWER

PRICES TO FOLLOW .( MOST LIKELY A COMPLEX 4TH WAVE )

WATCH CLOSELY THE FIRST 4 HOURS ON MONDAY .

FRIDAYS MARKET ACTIONS WAS OBVIOUSLY LOPSIDED TO THE DOWNSIDE WHERE DOWN VOLUME

WAS 76.6 % TO THE DOWNSIDE . THIS WAS JUST A LITTLE MORE THEN THE 73.8 % DOWNSIDE VOLUME

ON THURSDAY . THIS HAS PUSHED THE 5 DAY SUM INTO OVERSOLD TERRITORY . IT HAS ALSO BROUGHT

THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE VERY NEAR PRIOR LOWS OF THE PAST YEAR . WHAT WE NEED TO SEE

IS SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED BACK IN FEB MARCH OF 2009 .THE BLACK LINE ( 5 DAY SUM )

NEEDS TO BOUNCE AND THEN COMEBACK TO A HIGHER LOW AS THE STOCK MARKET INDEXES MAKE A LOWER LOW

THIS WILL GIVE A BUY SIGNAL .THE RED LINE ( 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE ) WOULD MOST LIKELY MAKE A LOWER LOW .

BOTTOM LINE : UNTIL WE SEE THE BULLISH DIVERGENCE SHOW UP WE DO NOT WANT TO POSITION OURSELVES FOR

LONGER TERM BULLISH POSITIONS .

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW .

THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW CLOSED FRIDAY AT .464 . READINGS BELOW .45 ARE TYPICAL AND READINGS BELOW

.39 ARE RARE .SINCE THIS IS BASED ON DAILY PRICE MOVEMENT OF THE DAILY DOW WE SHOULD ALLOW MORE TIME

FOR THIS INDICATOR TO MOVE AT THE VERY LEAST BELOW .45 BEFORE LOOKING FOR LONGER TERM BULLISH POSITIONS .

IN FACT IM EXPECTING THIS INDICATOR TO FALL INTO THE GREY AREA BETWEEN THE 2 YELLOW SUPPORT LINES

WHICH IS THE .423 TO .39 RANGE .

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE .

EXTREME READING ON THIS INDICATOR TEND TO BE NEAR MINUS 1000 . SUPPORT THOUGH SITS AT MINUS 473 .

THIS INDICATOR TENDS TO TURN UP BEFORE THE MARKET . TAKEN AT FACE VALUE IT IS STILL POINTING DOWN

SO THE TREND MUST BE CONSIDERED DOWN . ( NOTE WAVE COUNT ON NASDAQ BELOW IS CALLING FOR A

MINOR 4TH WAVE YET THE LARGER TREND IS STILL LOWER ) THIS INDICATOR WOULD NEED TO TURN UP

AS THE MARKET PUTS IN A 5TH WAVE ( OF EITHER WAVE III OR 3 ) TO THE DOWNSIDE .

THE 10 DAY TRIN .

OVERSOLD READINGS ARE READINGS ABOVE 1.40 . WHAT YOU LOOK FOR IS A READING ABOVE 1.40 TO GIVE

THE OVERSOLD READING . THEN ONCE YOU SEE A CLOSE BACK BELOW 1.40 A BUY SIGNAL IS GENERATED.

FRIDAYS CLOSE AT 1.37 IS TELLING ME THAT THIS MARKET IS BECOMING OVERSOLD . HOWEVER

I DO NOT SEE ANY BUY SIGNALS IN ANY OF THE INDICATORS ABOVE .

AS NOTED BELOW I MENTIONED WE NEED TO DIG INTO THE INDICATORS TO JUSTIFY WHY

WE SHOULD EXPECT A STRONG BOUNCE IN THE MARKET EARLY MONDAY . AT THIS POINT IN TIME

I CANNOT TRADE BASED ON THAT ASSUMPTION EVEN THOUGH WE DO HAVE SOME CLUES

WE ARE NEARING AN OVERSOLD CONDITION WHICH WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THEN A BOUNCE

BEFORE WE SEE LOWER PRICES AGAIN . IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE INDICATORS I LIKE TO WATCH

20 DAY HIGHS VERSUS 20 DAY LOWS. AS NOTED BEFORE . I LOOK FOR THE 20 LOWS NEAR 700 FOR LOWS

AND 20 DAY HIGHS NEAR 700 FOR HIGHS . I USED TO TRACK THIS MUCH MORE CLOSELY . I FIND THAT

LOOKING AT THIS WITH IN 4 TO 5 TRADING DAYS BEFORE A SHORT TERM CYCLE TURN IS HELPFUL .

20 DAY HIGHS WENT FROM 338 TO 144 WHICH IS DOWN 194 . 20 DAY LOWS WENT FROM 658 TO 976

WHICH IS UP 309. 20 DAY LOWS ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 700 WHICH IMPLIES WE ARE NOW NEARING

AN OVERSOLD CONDITION SHORT TERM . OVER THE COMING WEEK YOU WILL WANT TO TAKE NOTE OF THE

20 DAY LOWS AND SEE THEM CONTRACT, BUT DON'T EXPECT TO SEE 20 DAY HIGHS EXPAND UNTIL AFTER THE MARKET

TURNS BACK TO THE UPSIDE .

JAN 22

TODAY I WENT SHORT 1 QQQQ 44 PUT AT 1 BUCK . I DID THIS EVEN THOUGH IT MAY NOT MAKE

SENSE BECAUSE IN DOING SO IT CREATED A 24.99 % GAIN FOR THE YEAR IN TERMS OF CASH.

WHAT IM LOOKING FOR IS WAVE 4 WHICH MAY LAST A FEW DAYS TO MOST OF NEXT WEEK

THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE PREMIUM FOR OUT OF THE MONEY OPTIONS DOWN .

THIS LEAVES ME LONG 1 FEB 46 PUT AND SHORT 1 FEB 44 PUT . AS WAVE IV NEARS ITS END POINT

THE PREMIUM IN THE FEB 44 PUT WOULD NEED TO DECLINE BELOW 30 CENTS TO MAKE THE

TRADE WORTHWHILE WHEN CONSIDERING COMMISSIONS .

NASDAQ 100

UNDER ELLIOTT WAVE GUIDELINES YOU SHOULD LOOK FOR THE WAVES BETWEEN WAVES 2 AND

4 TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN SIMPLE AND COMPLEX . SO FAR BOTH WAVES 2 AND II WERE SIMPLE WHICH

IMPLIES WAVE IV AND 4 SHOULD BE COMPLEX . TO ADD TO THIS IF THE TIMING MODEL IS INVERTING

THEN WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR THE END OF WAVE 4 NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH ( JAN 29 TH )

AT THIS POINT THOUGH WE CANNOT COUNT ON AN INVERSION UNTIL IT ACTUALLY PROVES ITSELF

SO I TAKE A LOOK AT THE WAVE FORMATION .SUPPORT FOR WAVE III OF 3 SITS BETWEEN 1788 TO 1767

AND THE RESISTANCE FOR WAVE IV SITS AT 1823 . THIS IS A 56 POINT RANGE . IF YOU LOOK BACK

OVER THE RALLY SINCE MARCH OF 2009 . MANY TIMES WE HAVE SEEN SHARP RALLIES ON MONDAYS

EVEN THE RECENT HIGH CAME ON A TUESDAY WHICH WAS THE FIRST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK .

SO OVERALL WE ARE NEAR A PROJECTED WAVE III LOW AS OF THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WE HAVE

A TREND WHICH OVER THE PAST 9 MONTHS THAT HAS BROUGHT SHARP RALLIES ON THE FIRST TRADING DAY

OF THE WEEK . WHAT WE NOW NEED TO DO IS TO DIG INTO THE INDICATORS TO JUSTIFY WHY THERE

IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE A SHARP RALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO JUSTIFY

THE INVERSION THAT I AM EXPECTING .

THINGS TO LOOK AT , 20 DAY HIGHS AND LOWS , 10 DAY TRIN , 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE AND SHORT

TERM VOLUME ANALYSIS . PLANS CHANGED TODAY AND IM NOT DUE BACK TO WORK UNTIL EARLY MONDAY

SO I WILL UPDATE THE INDICATORS ON SATURDAY AND COMPLETE THE ANALYSIS FOR NEXT WEEKS

MARKET EXPECTATIONS .

BOTTOM LINE: WE HAVE AN IMPULSIVE LOOKING WAVE COUNT THAT IS STILL DEVELOPING

IT APPEARS WAVE III IS NEAR ITS END POINT AND WAVE IV V ( 3 ) AND 4 THEN 5 IS STILL NEEDED

BEFORE WE CAN THEN LOOK FOR A LARGER DECLINE UNFOLD . SINCE BOTH WAVE 2 AND WAVE II

WERE SIMPLE WE SHOULD EXPECT WAVE IV AND 4 TO BE COMPLEX ( TRIANGLE OR TRIPLE 3 PATTERNS )

A 56 POINT RANGE IN THIS INDEX IMPLIES A 3 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE COMING WEEKS AT A MINIMUM

THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY 1 1/2 PERCENT UP TO 1 1/2 PERCENT DOWN FROM TODAY'S CLOSE .

FROM WAVE IV NEAR 1823, WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A MOVE DOWN IN WAVE V TO FILL THE GAP

AT 1733 . THIS SHOULD COMPLETE WAVE 1 THROUGH 3 DOWN . WEATHER OR NOT WE GET A FULL 5 WAVES

DOWN OR NOT IS NOT IMPORTANT JUST YET . 3 WAVES DOWN WOULD BE LABELED A B C AND

1733 IS THE PROJECTED TARGET AT THIS JUNCTURE. I WILL THEN HAVE TO DIG INTO THE INDICATORS

AGAIN . AS WELL AS, LOOK AT THE TIMING MODEL BEFORE LOOKING FOR 5 FULL WAVES DOWN .

HENCE WE ARE NOT GUARANTEED THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE 5 WAVES .

THE LARGER RANGE IS 90 POINTS WHICH IS OF COURSE , A MUCH WIDER PERCENTAGE RANGE

FOR NOW IM STICKING TO THE LOWER RANGE

I SHOULD HAVE THE INDICATORS POSTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON .

JAN 22

IF YOU LOOK TO THE TOP RIGHT ON THIS PAGE YOU WILL SEE A LINK THAT SAYS

HI/LO. THAT LINK I LOOK AT NEAR TURN DATES . THE BASIS OF THIS IS VERY SIMPLE

YOU LOOK FOR NEW 20 DAY LOWS AT 700 NEAR SHORT TERM LOWS AND 20 DAY

HIGHS AT 700 NEAR SHORT TERM HIGH'S. THAT IS THE GUIDE .

YOU CAN SEE THAT ON JAN 21 ( THURSDAY ) THE NYSE HAD 658 NEW 20 DAY LOWS

WHAT YOU WANT TO DO OVER THEN NEXT 4 TO 5 TRADING DAYS IS SIMPLY CHECK

THIS AND SEE IF THERE IS A CHANGE IN DIRECTION . EXAMPLE : ARE 20 DAY HIGHS

BEGINNING TO TURN UP ? AND ALSO SEE IF 20 LOWS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL.

THIS WILL GIVE YOU A SLIGHT HEADS UP ON THE MARKET BEFORE IT CHANGES DIRECTION.

MANY TIMES YOU WILL SEE THAT THE 700 LEVELS ON BOTH THE 20 DAY HIGH AND LOWS

WILL BE EXCEEDED SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY SOMETIMES NOT . 20 DAY HIGHS NEAR 1200

TEND TO BE EXTREMES YET THE 700 LEVELS ARE THE KEY . THE 20 DAY HIGH LOW

IS WHAT I'VE FOUND TO BE THE MOST RELIABLE FOR SHORT TERM TREND CHANGES

LONGER TERM THE 65 DAY AND 100 DAY ARE HELPFUL FOR EXTREME OVERSOLD READINGS

YET I FOCUS MORE ON THE 20 DAY ONLY. I HARDLY PAY MUCH ATTENTION TO 52 WEEK

HIGH LOWS UNLESS I SEE 52 WEEK LOWS ABOVE 45 AND RISING FOR A PERIOD OF 3 TO 4 TRADING DAYS

AS THE MARKET IS RISING ALSO AND IM ALSO LOOKING FOR A SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH

AND THE 20 DAY HIGH'S ARE RUNNING UP ABOVE 700. WHEN YOU SEE THIS TYPE OF SET UP

YOU WANT TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVELY BEARISH BECAUSE SOMETHING IS DEFINITELY NOT RIGHT

WITH A RISING MARKET AND AN EXPANSION IN THE 52 WEEK LOWS ( WHEN THE READING IS ABOVE 45 )

JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER WHEN COMING INTO A TURN DATE .

JAN 21

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE USUALLY TURNS UP BEFORE THE MARKET BOTTOMS

WHAT YOU LOOK FOR IS THIS INDICATOR TO TURN UP AND THE MARKET FALLS

AS OF TODAY THIS SHORT TERM BULLISH DIVERGENCE HAS FAILED TO SHOW UP

HENCE THE TREND REMAINS DOWN .

10 DAY TRIN

THE 10 DAY TRIN GIVES AN OVERSOLD SIGNAL WHEN IT CLOSES ABOVE 1.40

AT 1.27 AS OF TODAY THIS IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SIGNAL .

THIS LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR FURTHER DECLINES

VOLUME

THIS CHART IS SOMETHING I LOOK AT .

THE BLUE DOTTED LINE IS THE DAILY UP VOLUME MINUS DOWN VOLUME DIVIDED BY TOTAL VOLUME

TODAY 73 PERCENT OF THE VOLUME WAS ON THE DOWNSIDE . 90 PERCENT DOWN VOLUME DAYS ARE RARE

AND WE USUALLY SEE A POP TO THE UPSIDE FOLLOWING THIS LOWER RANGE

THE BLACK LINE IS THE 5 DAY SUM OF THE SAME BLUE LINE . AS YOU CAN SEE THERE IS ROOM

TO GO LOWER BUT WE ARE BECOMING VERY SHORT TERM OVERSOLD .

THE RED LINE IS THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF THE SAME DAILY VOLUME INDICATOR

THERE IS NO BULLISH SIGNAL BEING GIVEN HERE YET WE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VERY SHORT

TERM THIS MARKET IS DUE FOR A BOUNCE .THIS IS OK AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED BUT IS IS

MY REASONING FOR REDUCING MY BEARISH STANCE TO SOMETHING MORE MANAGEABLE

GIVEN THE ACCOUNT SIZE IM USING FOR THIS YEARS TRADING LOG .

DOW DAILY

A PATTERN NEVER TRULY SHOWS ITSELF UNTIL LATE IN ITS FORMATION.

THIS HOWEVER IS WHAT IM EXPECTING TO SEE . BUT UNTIL I ACTUALLY SEE A POINT 3 HIGH

FOLLOWED BY A SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO BE CONSIDERING THIS .

THE MAIN THEME TIMING WISE IS WE SHOULD BE EXPECTING A SIDEWAYS RANGE

WHAT I INTEND TO DO IS SIMPLY TRADE THE SWINGS AS MY TIMING MODEL IMPLIES

AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT FORMATION THE MARKET SHOWS ME . MY OVERALL THOUGHTS

BETWEEN NOW AND AUGUST ARE NOT CHANGED . BULLISH INTO AUGUST COULD END UP

BEING NOTHING MORE THEN A MARKET THAT HOLDS UP INTO AUGUST .

BEARISH INTO MID FEB AND MID MARCH IS MY CURRENT STANCE STANCE .

THE MARKET WILL GIVES US A LOW . THE EXACT LOW WILL COME WHEN IT COMES AND IS

NOT SOMETHING IM ALL THAT INTERESTED IN NAILING DOWN AT THE MOMENT

HOWEVER , I HAVE NOT CHANGED ANY OF MY VIEWS IN THE PRIOR UPDATES AND IF YOU

LOOK THROUGH THEM YOU WILL SEE THE VARIABLES IM LOOKING AT .

BOTH EXAMPLES THAT I HAVE SHOWN IN REGARDS TO THIS PATTERN SAY THE SAME THING

YET AT DIFFERENT DEGREES. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR A SIDEWAYS RANGE BOUND MARKET

THIS IS THE BROAD VIEW IM WORKING WITH .

FOR PURPOSES OF MY TIMING MODEL IM POSTING SHORT TERM TRADES THIS YEAR .

I SHOULD NOTE I AM NOT A SHORT TERM TRADER AND AS YOU LOOK AT THE COMMISSIONS POSTED

IN THE 2010 TRADING LOG YOU CAN SEE WHY . THE REASON FOR SHOWING FULL SERVICE BROKER COMMISSIONS

IS SIMPLY BEING AS HONEST AS POSSIBLE WITH TRADING RESULTS .

THIS CHART POSTED BELOW IS WHAT A LARGER PATTERN SHOULD LOOK LIKE YET IN ORDER TO FINE

TUNE THIS TRADING RANGE WE NEED TO SEE HOW THE MARKET MOVES BETWEEN NOW AND MARCH .

ONCE THE RANGE IS IN . THE REST WILL BECOME EASY.

I WILL BE HEADING BACK TO WORK SATURDAY AND OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE DAY TO DAY MOVEMENTS

OF THE MARKET . I HOPE I HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF LEAVING YOU WITH SOMETHING TO WORK WITH

OVER THE COMING MONTHS . I DON'T EXPECT MY BIG PICTURE VIEW'S TO CHANGE .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AFTER FRIDAYS CLOSE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

JAN21

SOLD 2 OR 3 QQQQ PUTS.

WILL HOLD THE LAST 1 INTO FEB 15 18TH .

USING FRONT MONTH OPTIONS IS RISKY

SO IM NOW DOWN TO 1 CONTRACT .

JUST BASIC MONEY MANAGEMENT CONSIDERING THE ACCOUNT SIZE

BEING USED ABOVE . THIS LEAVES THE ACCOUNT UP 15.37 % FOR THE YEAR

AND ALSO STILL IN A BEARISH POSITION . HENCE NO RISK OF ACCOUNT LOSS

ILL UPDATE THE CHARTS THIS AFTERNOON.

JAN 20

THE NASDAQ 100 HAS 3 WAVES DOWN OVER THE PAST DAY.

KEY RESISTANCE FOR TOMORROW IS THE 1871.25-1873.15 .

A MOVE ABOVE 1876.34 WOULD CAUSE ME TO EXIT MY SHORT

TERM BEARISH POSITION .TIME WISE THERE IS 2 TIME LINES

THE FIRST HITS ON THE OPEN AND THE 2ND ONE HITS 45 MINUTES

FROM THE OPEN . A BREAK BACK BELOW 1857.62 IS NEEDED TO

TURN THIS VERY SHORT TERM CHART BACK DOWN .

JAN 20

SOLD FEB DJX 700 PUTS FOR 27.7 % NET GAIN .

HOLDING FEB QQQQ PUTS

JAN 19

I HAVE POSTED THE TIMING MODEL ABOVE . ON THE SURFACE I WILL ADMIT

MY BEARISH TRADES LOOK LIKE A MISTAKE . YET WHAT I HAVE NOTICED

MANY TIMES IS AT SOME POINT WHEN YOU ARE SEEING AN INVERSION

YOU WILL GET AN EXTENDED MOVE IN ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER .

THIS DOES LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR HIGHER PRICES INTO JAN 29TH

HOWEVER AS I NOTED LATE LAST YEAR I INTEND TO PUT MY MONEY

WHERE MY MOUTH IS THIS YEAR . MY BIAS IS DOWN HENCE THE

TRADES ARE PLACED .

I WAS FILLED ON A BEARISH TRADE ON THE QQQQ TODAY AND I ALSO

WAS FILLED ON A BEARISH TRADE ON THE DOW .

THIS WILL SHOW UP AS A NEGATIVE NUMBER ON MY TRADING LOG ABOVE

QQQQ

TODAY'S RALLY WAS TO BE EXPECTED .TYPICALLY THE NEXT TRADING DAY FOLLOWING A

TRIN SPIKE BRINGS A BOUNCE . THE FACT WE MADE A NEW HIGH TODAY DOESN'T MATTER

AT THIS POINT YET IT DOES SHOW THAT THE OVERALL BULLISH SENTIMENT CURRENTLY

FROM THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS .

THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM INDICATOR AND AS YOU CAN SEE THESE SPIKES TO 9.00

OR HIGHER GENERALLY SHOW UP APPROXIMATELY ONCE PER MONTH .

THIS IS A 60 MINUTE CHART . SEEING A SPIKE TO 9.00 ON A DAILY CHART IS EXTREMELY RARE

AND HAS MUCH MORE BULLISH IMPLICATIONS

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

THIS INDICATOR PEAKED JAN 14TH AND IS STILL POINTING LOWER .

WHILE IT CAN TURN AROUND AND HEAD UP , TAKEN AT FACE VALUE TODAY'S NEW HIGH

SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A NON CONFIRMATION . THIS IS A BEARISH SIGN

THE DAILY 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN

THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ACCORDING TO GEORGE LINDSAY

HE STATES YOU DO NOT WANT TO CALL POINT 15 TO EARLY .

I MAY BE CALLING POINT 15 TO EARLY . THE POINT OF THIS CHART IS THE PATTERN

THE PRICES I HAVE ON HERE ARE JUST A GUIDE ONLY . UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MARKET

REACTS IN THE SHORT TERM IT IS ACTUALLY TO EARLY TO CALL POINT 15 IN PLACE .

THE MAIN POINT THOUGH IS WE SHOULD BE NEAR THE POINT TIME WISE WHEN A SIDEWAYS

MOVEMENT SHOULD BE EXPECTED .

JAN 18

THE HARDEST PART OF POSTING ANY STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS IT TRYING TO

EXPLAIN THE REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST . THIS CHART BELOW IS THE

WORK YET HOW MANY OF YOU CAN REALLY UNDERSTAND IT ??

ON SEPT 23RD 2009 THE MARKET COMPLETED 2 BULLISH CYCLES LABELED POINT J

AND POINT JJ . UNDER BOTH COUNTS ( USING TIME ) THE MARKET HAS YET TO

COMPLETE THE CORRECTIVE SIDE OF THIS . THE MARCH 1 TO MARCH 16TH TIME FRAME

IS WHERE TIME SAYS WE SHOULD BEGIN ANOTHER BULLISH CYCLE TO COMPLETE THE

LARGER COUNT WHICH IS LABELED IN BLACK . THE BLUE LABELING HAS ALREADY COMPLETED

WHICH IS WHAT WE SHOULD SEE COMPLETE BEFORE A LARGER DOWN CYCLE INTO MID 2011

TO LATE 2012 . THE TOP AT BOTH POINT J AND POINT JJ WAS ON THIS SPX DAILY CHART

1080.15 . TECHNICALLY THIS LEVEL SHOULD BE TESTED AND MOST LIKELY BROKEN

BEFORE THE NEXT BULLISH PHASE CAN BEGIN . BASED ON TIMING ALONE

I MUST KEEP A BEARISH BIAS INTO MID FEB AS WELL AS MID MARCH 2010 .

KEY SUPPORT ON THE SPX IS 1071-1036 . THE 1063.50 PRICE LEVEL WOULD BE

EQUAL TO THE POINT DECLINE FROM POINT G TO H WHICH WAS THE JUNE 2009 TO JULY 2009

HIGH TO LOW . THE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE CHART IS THE EARLY TO MID MARCH TIME PERIOD

BEING A LOW OF SIGNIFICANCE .GIVEN THE OVERBOUGHT NATURE OF THE STOCK MARKET

ALONG WITH THE COMPLACENCY OF MANY TRADERS I FIND IT HARD TO HAVE A BULLISH

BIAS AT THIS JUNCTURE .

$UTIL

THE UTILITIES INDEX HAS YET TO PUT IN ITS 5TH WAVE HIGH .

LAST WEEKS MARKET ACTION HERE IS WHAT IS CONSIDERED AN INSIDE WEEK.

AN INSIDE WEEK IS WHERE AN INDEX TRADES WITHIN THE PRIOR WEEKS RANGE .

TYPICALLY AN INSIDE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK OUT IN ONE DIRECTION

OR THE OTHER . MY BIAS IS THIS INDEX WILL GO ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGH AND BREAK OUT

TO COMPLETE WAVE 5 .

JAN 17

ILL POST AN UPDATE MONDAY ONCE I HAVE THE REST OF MY CYCLES PUT TOGETHER

IM STILL WATCHING AMAZON FOR A LOW YET I THINK THE DOW SHOULD HEAD LOWER

INTO FEB 15TH 18TH . I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN THE LEAST BIT IF WE SEE A RALLY EARLY TUESDAY

THE REASON IS WE SAW A TRIN SPIKE ON THE 60 MIN TRIN FRIDAY.

FOR NOW IM STICKING TO THE BEARISH CASE INTO FEB 15TH 18TH . IF THE DOW CAN MANAGE TO

HOLD ONTO THE 10289 LEVEL BY THEN ID LOOK FOR NEW HIGHS UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 11,000

BUT AN ENTIRE MONTH TO FALL ONLY 300 POINTS IS BEING A BIT OPTIMISTIC .

THEN AGAIN THAT IS EVERYTHING ITS GAINED FOR THE PAST MONTH ISN'T IT ??

LOWER SUPPORT IS 10,068. IM STILL LONGER TERM BEARISH FROM AUG 2010 INTO

MAY 2011. SHORT TERM IM BEARISH INTO MID FEB . MY THINKING IS WE ARE GOING TO

SEE MORE OF THE SAME . SLOPPY UP DOWN DAYS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS .

SEE YOU MONDAY

JUST CYCLES .

ILL EXPLAIN MONDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CASE TO BE MADE THAT THIS FOLLOWING WEEK WILL BE BEARISH

I WANT TO SHOW MY LONGER TERM OSCILLATOR FROM 1991 TO DATE.

THE JAN 11 DATE SHOWN IN THIS OSCILLATOR IS BASED ON THE DOW CLOSING AT

THURSDAYS CLOSING PRICE . IF THE DOW IS UP ON FRIDAY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY

CLOSES UP . THEN THIS INDICATOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE PUTTING IT ITS MOMENTUM

HIGH . LOOK BACK AT THE WEEKS OF FOR THE DATES NOTED .

EACH ONE HAS MARKET SHORT TERM PEAKS FROM WHICH THE DOW HAS FALLEN

BETWEEN 3.6 % TO A LITTLE OVER 10 PERCENT . THE AVERAGE DECLINE IS

ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 WEEKS YET CAN EXTEND TO 10 WEEKS .

TYPICALLY ONCE THIS INDICATOR PEAKS NEAR THIS LEVEL THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK

WILL BE A NEW HIGH THEN A REVERSAL . IM NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN YET WE WILL

HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MARKET CLOSES ON FRIDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

JAN 13

UPDATE ON UTILITIES

THERE IS A VERY TIGHT RANGE FROM 411.26 TO 415.95 TO WATCH .

THE AVERAGE IS 413.51 .

I HAVE YET TO DEFINE A SOLID EQUAL TIME BASIS TO THIS CHART

BUT THE MANY EQUAL PRICE LEVELS SHOULD PROVE TO BE IMPORTANT .

THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CORRELATE WITH OTHER INDEX'S PUTTING IN A HIGH .

THE AVERAGE LEVEL FROM TODAY'S CLOSE IS 2.9 PERCENT AWAY .

ADD THESE PERCENTS TO THE DOW AND THE TRANSPORTS AND YOU

GET A ROUGH LEVEL OF 10990.51 ON THE DOW AND 4339.31 ON TRANSPORTS

ON SPX YOU GET 1178.90 WHICH SEEMS A BIT HIGH .

JAN 13

TODAY I WANT TO FOLLOW UP ON THE CHART POSTED BACK ON

DEC 22 AND DEC 20TH ( THE DEC 14 DEC 22 UPDATES YOU SHOULD RE READ )

YOU CAN SEE THEM BELOW STILL .

WHERE ARE WE NOW ???

THE BIGGER PICTURE IS SHOWN BELOW THIS CHART

BOTTOM LINE THIS MARKET IS NEAR OR AT AN IMPORTANT PEAK

YET I STILL DON'T SEE THIS AS THE END OF THIS MOVE JUST YET

A LONGER TERM SIDEWAYS RANGE BOUND MARKET SHOULD

BE EXPECTED AT THE VERY LEAST . THIS IMPLIES BOTH BEARISH

AND BULLISH TRADES YET OVERALL NO REAL UPSIDE OR DOWNSIDE

MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS !

LONGER TERM THE TREND IS MOST DEFINITELY DOWN .

THE YELLOW BOX SITS IN THE RANGE OF 10795-10953 .

THIS IS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE BEARISH TRADES SHOULD BE PLACED

SUPPORT SITS IN THE RANGE OF 10271-10165 THIS AREA SHOULD BE SEEN

AS SUPPORT . WAVE A OF A TRIANGLE FORMATION IS TYPICALLY

THE BIGGEST DECLINE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE RIGHT NOW OUTWEIGHS THE RISK

TO THE UPSIDE , HENCE WE SHOULD ADOPT A BEARISH BIAS .

POINT WISE WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE EXPECTED RANGE .

MID FEB AND MID MARCH SHOULD BE LOWS .

JAN 12

OVERALL THE NEXT FEW MONTHS SHOULD BE CHOPPY

RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOTHING REALLY CLEAR IN THE MARKET

THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE TURN DATE IS JAN 15TH

WHICH HAPPENS TO BE OPTIONS EXPIRATIONS

I TEND TO AVOID OPTION EXPIRATION WEEKS

AMZN

KEEP AN EYE ON 123.40 ON CLOSE

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

THIS INDICATOR TURNED DOWN FROM THE JAN 5TH PEAK .

LOWER SUPPORT SITS NEAR MINUS 1000

DOW

THERE HAS BEEN NO CLEAR 5 WAVE PATTERN TO THE DOWNSIDE AT THIS JUNCTURE

THE CLEANEST COUNT IS A B C. 10651.29 IS NOW RESISTANCE

JAN 10

I HAVE HAD DATA PROBLEMS TODAY AND IM UN ABLE TO POST ANY CHARTS

THE 10 DAY TRIN CLOSED AT 1.08 ON FRIDAY WHICH IS VERY NEAR AN

OVERBOUGHT READING OF 1.00 THE NASDAQ 100 MAY MAKE A SLIGHT NEW HIGH

THE QQQQ I INTEND TO TAKE A BEARISH POSITIONS THERE AT 47.30

( IF MY MEMORY SERVE ME RIGHT ) THIS IS JUST UNDER 1 DOLLAR FROM FRIDAYS

CLOSE . SEE YOU MONDAY

JAN 8TH

REFERENCE DATA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.

DATA FROM YAHOO. THIS IS AN INCOMPLETE LIST

BUT CAN BE USED AS A REFERENCE NEAR TURN DATES .

THE CHART BELOW IS BEING SHOWED AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE TIMING MODEL BEING USED

ON AN INDIVIDUAL STOCK . THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS MANY EARNINGS DATES WHICH

WILL NEED TO BE DOUBLE CHECKED SINCE I DON'T COMPLETELY TRUST YAHOO.

THE THEORY BEHIND TRADING EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IS TO BUY ROUGHLY

10 DAYS BEFORE THE EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT DATE AND SELL JUST BEFORE

THE NEWS COMES OUT . BASICALLY PEOPLE TEND TO BE BULLISH AND DRIVE STOCK

PRICES HIGHER INTO THE NEWS . THE TIMING MODEL ON THIS STOCK IS BASED ON

MATHEMATICAL UPS AND DOWN ON PRICE ASSUMING THE SWINGS CONTINUE

IF THIS IS TO HOLD TRUE THEN AMAZON SHOULD FIND SUPPORT NEAR 123.40 ON A CLOSING BASIS

INTO JAN 15TH . INDIVIDUAL STOCKS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET RIGHT UNLESS THEY ARE

THE FAVORED STOCK . TO DO THIS WITH EACH STOCK TAKES ALLOT OF WORK WHICH IS WHY

I USE THE MODEL ON THE DOW .HOWEVER IF THE DOW IS HEADING LOWER INTO JAN 15TH

AND IF STOCK PRICES ALONG WITH THE DOW ARE GOING TO HEAD HIGHER INTO MID YEAR

THEN THIS STOCK SHOULD TRADE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THIS MODEL IS CALLING FOR .

KEEP AN EYE ON 123.40 NEXT WEEK .

JAN 4

THE 10 DAY TRIN CLOSED TODAY AT 1.10 WHICH IS SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT

YET NOT YET BELOW 1.00 . I CAN NO LONGER JUSTIFY MY SHORT TERM

BULLISH STANCE . I CONSIDERED TODAY A GIFT AND EXITED MY SHORT

TERM JAN CALLS ON THE DOW .

I INTEND TO TAKE A SHORT TERM BEARISH STANCE NEAR PRESENT LEVELS

THE NASDAQ 100 IS NOW INTO ITS RESISTANCE ZONE

SSO HAS HIT ITS MEASURED OBJECTIVE BASED ON THE TRIANGLE PATTERN

NOTE: ONCE A TRIANGLE THRUST IS COMPLETE YOU LOOK FOR A MOVE

BACK TO THE APEX OF THAT TRIANGLE , THIS TARGETS 37.50

JAN 3

I STARTED THIS WEB SITE AS A WAY TO PUT DOWN EVERYTHING I HAVE LEARNED

OVER THE PAST 25 YEARS . THE PURPOSE FOR ME WAS TO CREATE A MECHANICAL

DISCIPLINED TRADING SOFTWARE PROGRAM . AS I LOOKED INTO IT ALL FURTHER

I REALIZED THE COST OF BUILDING SOFTWARE WAS TO EXPENSIVE DUE TO THE

MANY DIFFERENT APPROACHES I USE . THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IS JUST

ONE PEACE EVEN THOUGH IT IS A BIG PEACE TO WHAT IM WORKING ON .

THURSDAY I LEFT EARLY TO GO DO A FEW THINGS AND I DID NOT EXIT MY SHORT TERM

BULLISH POSITION . HENCE I SCREWED UP TRADING ON THURSDAY AND THAT WILL

MOST DEFINITELY SHOW UP ON MY TRADING RESULTS THAT I INTEND TO POST

ONCE THE TRADE IS EXITED . WE ARE IN A SWING PERIOD IN THE MARKET FROM

DEC 31 TO JAN 15 . THE MARKET SHOULD HEAD LOWER . IM A BIT MIXED THOUGH AS

TO HOW LOW BETWEEN NOW AND JAN 15TH .

THIS CHART WILL BE CHANGED IN THE COMING DAYS , IM NOT GOING TO CHANGER ANYTHING WITH IN

IT . I'M GOING TO ZOOM IT IN TO SHOW THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN DEC 2009 TO APRIL 15 2010 .

THOSE ARE THE MAIN SWINGS IM MOST INTERESTED IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS .

THIS IS THE DAILY CUMULATIVE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE WITH AN ELLIOT WAVE COUNT ON IT .

THE QUESTION IS ,IS THIS A 4TH WAVE ?? OR WAS THAT ALL AN ABC RALLY AND NOW THE MARKET HEADS

MUCH LOWER INTO THE MAY 2011 CYCLE LOW ???

MY THINKING IS WE SHOULD SEE 5 WAVES UP . THE WAVE COUNT TO DATE WHICH WE SHOULD CONSIDER IS

BOTH WAVE 2 AND WAVE II WERE SIMPLE WAVES AND UNDER THE GUIDELINE OF ALTERNATION

WAVES IV AND 4 SHOULD BE COMPLEX WAVES. WAVE IV WAS INDEED COMPLEX . SO WE SHOULD EXPECT

MORE COMPLEX TRADING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS .

PERSONALLY I DON'T CARE WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET GOES ,BUT I CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO BE ON

THE WRONG SIDE OF IT .

IF WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THE NEWS WE WILL MOST LIKELY FIND OURSELVES BECOMING

INCREASINGLY BEARISH . AT THIS POINT IN TIME IN A BROAD VIEW WE WOULD FIND OURSELVES CORRECT TO THINK

THIS WAY , HOWEVER BEING RIGHT AND MAKING MONEY IS 2 DIFFERENT STORIES . MY PREFERENCE IS TO RELY MORE ON

WHAT THE PROBABLE DIRECTION IS MORE THEN ANYTHING . SO TURN OFF THE TV AND THINK IT THROUGH IS MY BIAS.

SO LETS LOOK AT A FEW THINGS LONGER TERM IN NATURE.

EVERYDAY THE MARKET HAS WHAT IS KNOWN AS NET CHANGE . THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DAILY 501 DAY AVERAGE

THE THE DAILY 1000 DAY AVERAGE . OK SO WHAT'S THE POINT ?? THIS CHART IS UPDATED TO DATE AND THE POINT IS VERY SIMPLE

LOOK AT EVERY TIME THIS INDICATOR HAS GONE BELOW .0006 OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS . NOW LOOK AT WHAT HAS HAPPENED

EVERY SINGLE TIME AFTERWARDS . IT HAS NEVER EVER EVER IN THE PAST 70 YEARS FAILED TO GO BACK ABOVE THE 0 LINE ( IN RED )

I REALIZE THERE IS ALWAYS A 1ST FOR ANY INDICATOR TO FAIL BUT WITH 70 YEARS OF HISTORY AND NO FAILURES IT TELLS ME

THIS MARKET NEEDS MORE TIME BEFORE I WANT TO HAVE A LONGER TERM BEARISH POSITION EVEN IF WE ARE NOW

IN A LONGER TERM DOWN CYCLE . SO ASK YOURSELF WHAT ARE THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS FAILING ?

NOW ON THE OTHER HAND LETS LOOK AT A DIFFERENT SIDE TO THIS .

I USED THIS LONG TERM OSCILLATOR BACK IN MARCH 2009 TO SHOW JUST HOW EXTREMELY OVERSOLD THE STOCK MARKET

WAS . ON DEC 7TH THIS INDICATOR PEAKED . THIS IMPLIES THAT EVEN IF STOCKS DO GO HIGHER , MOMENTUM HIGH IS MOST

LIKELY ALREADY IN PLACE .. NOTE THE LAST PEAKS , THEY TEND TO COME EARLY . LONGER TERM THIS IS BEARISH

IM NOT GOING TO ARGUE AGAINST IT . SHORTER TERM THE CHART ABOVE HAS YET TO GET ABOVE THE 0 LINE WHICH

OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS IT HAS NEVER FAILED TO DO .

SO WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE ME ???

IT LEAVES ME WITH A BEARISH BIAS INTO MID MARCH AND AN OVERALL BULLISH BIAS INTO AUGUST .

AND A LONGER TERM BEARISH BIAS INTO MAY 2011-NOV 2012 . HENCE ILL RE STATE WHAT I SAID ABOVE .

IF WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THE NEWS WE WILL MOST LIKELY FIND OURSELVES BECOMING

INCREASINGLY BEARISH . AT THIS POINT IN TIME IN A BROAD VIEW WE WOULD FIND OURSELVES CORRECT TO THINK

THIS WAY , HOWEVER BEING RIGHT AND MAKING MONEY IS 2 DIFFERENT STORIES

SO WHAT TIME FRAME ARE YOU BASING YOUR TRADING DECISIONS ON ?? IF YOUR LOOKING OUT 2 YEARS BEING BEARISH

WILL WORK . IF YOUR LOOKING OUT 4 MONTHS HOWEVER YOU MAY END UP WITH MIXED RESULTS .

ILL GET INTO THE SHORT TERM ON MONDAYS UPDATE . I TEND TO THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE MORE COMPLEX

TRADING OVERALL WHICH MEANS MORE SIDEWAYS WHIPS SAWS UP AND DOWN OVER THE COMING MONTHS

FOR NOW THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE LOOKS TO BE THE 10346 AREA HOW EVER THIS YEARS PIVOT

LEVEL SITS AT 9111.04. THE UPPER RANGE FOR THE YEAR SHOULD BE 10727 AT A MINIMUM YET STRONGER

RESISTANCE IS THE 11166-11651 AREA . THE YEARLY RANGE IN THE DOW SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 3200 PTS

FROM HIGH TO LOW .

LASTLY SEE NEXT CHART BELOW

THE STORY GOES HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE BEARISH

SO LETS LOOK AT THE COMPARISON TO INTEREST RATES ON THE 30 YR TREASURY BOND

TO THE DOW OVER THE PAST DECADE . THE BLACK LINE IS THE MONTHLY TYX INDEX

RED IS THE DOW . I DON'T SEE HOW HIGHER RATES ARE BEARISH .

DEC 31

I FORGOT MARKET IS CLOSED ON JAN 1

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY

HAPPY NEW YEARS EVERYONE

DEC 30

BE CAREFUL OVER THE NEXT FEW TRADING DAYS

TODAY'S LOWS HELD AT 10505.66 IN WHAT LOOKED LIKE A BEARISH DAY

YET THIS WAS ACTUALLY THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WHEN THE

MARKET WAS ESSENTIALLY GAPPING UPI AND SELLING OFF . TODAY THE MARKET GAPPED

DOWN WAS WAS ESSENTIALLY UP ALL DAY ,

THE TAPE LOOKS UGLY EVERYONE IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING BEARISH AND SO

ID EXPECT SOME MORE UPSIDE .

10527.34 IS IMPORTANT AND SHOULD HOLD IF THIS MARKET IS GOING TO RUN UP .

THE 112 EQUAL TIME EQUATION ON THIS CHART RELATES TO 3 MINUTE BARS

THERE ARE 20 TRADING 15 MINUTE BARS UNTIL WE GET INTO THE NEXT TURN

ROUGHLY 300 MINUTES FROM THE OPEN IF THE MARKET IS UP AND EVEN BETTER

IF IT IS UP STRONGLY THEN I WILL LOOK TO EXIT MY SHORT TERM BULLISH STANCE

AND I WILL THEN BE LOOKING TO TAKE A BEARISH TRADE EITHER AT THE SAME TIME

OR DEPENDING ON THE MARKET SOME TIME FRIDAY .

THIS IS A BIT SPECULATIVE , KEY RESISTANCE SITS AT 10557.73

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE THURSDAY

DEC 29

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE HAS BEEN FALLING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS

AS THE MARKET HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN FLAT . MANY TIMES I SEE THE 10 DAY

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE LEAD THE MARKET NEAR LOWS OR HIGHS .

THIS IS A BEARISH SIGN . THE KEY FOR HIGHS IS YOU WANT TO SEE THIS INDICATOR

AT OR ABOVE PLUS 600 WHICH HAS BEEN HIT SEVERAL TIMES THIS LAST YEAR

THE PAST FEW MONTHS OCT 2 LOW NOV 2 LOW DEC 1 LOW . EARLY JAN A HIGH ???

AS BEARISH AS THIS IS LOOKING IM STILL THINKING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MARKET SHOULD

HOLD UP IF NOT RUN BACK UP TO A NEW HIGH .

10 DAY TRIN

THIS INDICATOR HAS YET TO FALL TO 1.00 TO GIVE US AN OVERBOUGHT READING . THE STOCHASTIC'S ON

THIS CHART ARE IN THERE HISTORICAL LOWER RANGE . THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE THOUGH TURNED UP

TODAY WHICH A NEGATIVE . BUT THIS IS OVERALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WHICH IS SOMEWHAT USELESS

SHORT TERM , THE BEST TRADES ARE ENTERED WHEN THIS INDICATOR IS ABOVE 1.40 WHICH MARKS STOCK LOWS

OR AT OR BELOW 1.00 WHICH MARKS STOCK MARKET SHORT TERM HIGHS .

BOTTOM LINE WE STILL NEED TO BE PATIENT BEFORE ENTERING A BEARISH TRADE

AS FOR THE DOW IM THINKING WE ARE IN SOME SORT OF SHORT TERM MINOR 4TH WAVE WHICH SHOULD

END IN THE COMING DAY OR SO AND THEN A FINAL POP TO THE UPSIDE SHOULD BRING THE 10 DAY TRIN

DOWN TO 1.00 SIGNALING AN OVERBOUGHT MARKET SHORT TERM AT THE LEAST .

SSO HAS NOT HITS ITS MEASURED OBJECTED YET. OBVIOUSLY THE MARKET THE PAST FEW DAYS

HAS BEEN BEARISH INTRADAY . IM LOOKING TO EXIT MY SHORT TERM BULLISH TRADE

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ILL START LOOKING AT BEARISH TRADES ON THURSDAY .

PROVIDED OF COURSE THE MARKET GOES TO HIGHER LEVELS

LETS LOOK AT SHORT TERM DOW .

DOW

THE SHORT TERM WAVE COUNT FROM DEC 23 RD HAS BECOME SLOPPY

SO I AM NOW KEYING OFF OF YESTERDAYS MARKET . IDEALLY THE 10541 AREA

WHICH IS TODAY'S CLOSE WILL HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY YET VERY SHORT TERM CHARTS

CAN GET YOU WHIPSAWED IN THE MARKET SO I WOULD BE HESITANT TO TRADE THIS

KEY SUPPORT NEEDS TO BE RAISED TO 10498 WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE RECENT LOW AT

10506.34. IF THE MARKET IS GOING TO GO HIGHER I SEE NO REASON WHY THIS

LOWER LEVEL SHOULD BE BROKEN EVEN SHORT TERM , HENCE 10498-10506 IS MY

LINE IN THE SAND SHORT TERM .

RESISTANCE IS STILL THE 10590-10600 LEVEL AS NOTED THE OTHER DAY WITH HIGHER

OBJECTIVES WHICH ARE DOUBTFUL INTO THE 10621-10761.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

DEC 28

TODAY WAS A NOTHING DAY FOR THE MARKETS . THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO ADD TO

THE WEEKEND UPDATE BELOW . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY

GOOD LUCK TRADING

DEC 27

THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IS CALLING FOR HIGHER PRICES INTO JAN 1 IF WE DID

SEE AN INVERSION . TODAY I BEGAN WORKING ON THE KEY DATES FOR 2010 .

THERE IS MANY MISMATCHED DATES FOR NEXT YEAR WHICH IS MOST LIKELY GOING

TO THROW MANY PEOPLE OFF . THE PUETZ WINDOW FOR EXAMPLE DOES NOT SHOW

ANY SIGNIFICANT SET UPS FOR THE YEAR 2010 . SO IT GETS LESS WEIGHTING

DEC 31 TO JAN 15 IS THE NEXT SWING PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BE FROM A HIGH

TO A LOW . ONCE I CAN SEE THIS CYCLE PROVE ITSELF I WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO

CALL THE SWINGS GOING FORWARD . THERE ARE A TOTAL OF 5 KEY SWING PERIODS

FOR THIS YEAR . THE DEC 31 2009 AND JAN 15 2010 ARE PRESENTLY DIFFICULT TO CALL

THE OTHERS ARE JUNE 26TH JULY 11 TH AND DEC 21 .

10263.90 IS NOW THE KEY LEVEL IN THE DOW THAT WE SHOULD CONSIDER SUPPORT

INTO JAN 1 2010

FROM SEPT 2009 TO DATE WE HAVE HAD MANY 21 TRADING DAY TURNS IN THE MARKET

MOST HAVE BEEN LOWS , THE EARLY DEC HIGH THOUGH WAS A TOP

WHAT THIS IS SETTING UP IS A LOW TO LOW TO LOW TO HIGH TO HIGH COUNT

WHICH IS A SIGN OF A REVERSAL AT THE VERY LEAST A SHORT TERM

REVERSAL. THE KEY WILL BE A HIGH ON FRIDAY JAN 1 2010

THE RALLY OUT OF THE TRIANGLE HAS SO FAR MADE A NEW HIGH YET IN DOING SO

IT HAS NOT YET REACHED ITS TARGET AT 39.55 . A 53 CENT MOVE MAY NOT

SEEM LIKE MUCH YET THAT IS A MOVE OF 1.3579 % WHICH WOULD BE

EQUAL TO A .0067 % MOVE IN THE SPX ( ROUGHLY 7.64 POINTS HIGHER )

WHICH IS ABOUT 76 POINTS IN THE DOW .

HENCE KEEP AN EYE ON THESE PRICE LEVELS

39.55 ON SSO

1134 SPX

10590.58-10600 DOW

NASDAQ 100

THIS NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AN IMPORTANT WEEK FOR THE NASDAQ 100 ALSO

THE PRICE RANGE OF 1887.95-1912.72 SHOULD BE A DIFFICULT RESISTANCE TO GET

THROUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE .

LAST WEEKS CLOSE AT : 1869.84 IS ONLY 18.11 - 42.88 PTS AWAY

WITH A HIGH DUE ON FRIDAY JAN 1 IM A BIT HESITANT TO LOOK FOR THE HIGHER

LEVEL TO EVEN BE TESTED YET IF IT IS ID TAKE A STRONGER BEARISH STANCE AGAINST IT

18.11 PTS EQUALS .00968 %

42.88 PTS EQUALS .0229 %

THESE EQUAL DOW TARGETS OF : 10621.93 TO 10761.35

FOR NOW IM MORE FOCUSED ON THE TIMING PART OF THE EQUATION AND WHAT IM LOOKING

FOR IS A HIGH ON JAN 1 NOT A LOW .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY

GOOD LUCK TRADING

DEC 22

JUST A CHART FOR A TRUE ELLIOT WAVE ENTHUSIASTS

I HAVE AN INTEREST IN THE SUN SPOT CYCLE . THE REASON WAS TO SEE

IF THE CHANGES IN NATURE RELATES TO AN ELLIOT WAVE STRUCTURE .

THIS IS FROM MAY 2007 TO DATE , THE FLAT LINE WOULD BE THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS SO IT HAS TO BE PLOTTED . IT HELPS ME TO UNDERSTAND

VARIOUS WAVE COUNTS USING SOMETHING NOT RELATED TO THE STOCK

MARKET SO I CAN THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX WITH THE VARIOUS PATTERNS

THAT TAKE PLACE.

THE 5 WAVE DOWN STRUCTURE IS A BEAUTIFUL TEXTBOOK ELLIOT WAVE COUNT

OF JUST ABOUT EVERY DEGREE OF TREND .

WAVE 1 2 WERE SIMPLE

WAVE I I WERE SIMPLE

WAVE 4 AND WAVE IV ALTERNATED TO COMPLEX WAVES

WAVE 5 WAS SIMPLE OF EVERY DEGREE

PERFECT COUNT USING RULE OF ALTERNATION

WAVE'S 1 AND 2 TO THE UPSIDE SHOULD BE COMPLETE

WILL THEY BEGIN SUNSPOT TRADING ALONG WITH CARBON CREDITS ??

SOMETHING TO LAUGH ABOUT

DEC 22

THE MONTHLY CLOSE ONLY PUT CALL RATIO IS NEARING A PRIOR EXTREME

MANY TIMES I FIND IT HARD TO WAIT FOR A PATTERN TO COMPLETE . THIS CHART

NEEDS TO CLOSE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN ORDER

TO GIVE US A CLOSING EXTREME READING FOR THE MONTH .

HENCE LET THE YEAR END BEFORE TAKING ANY SHORT POSITIONS

THE IDEAL CLOSE FROM AN EQUAL MOVE PERSPECTIVE ABOVE WOULD BE

FOR THIS INDICATOR TO CLOSE AT .302 FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER

THE CLOSE ON JAN 7 2007 WAS .304.

10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF DAILY TRIN

THIS INDICATOR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN 1.40 AND 1.00

OVERBOUGHT READINGS ARE AT OR BELOW 1.00 . THERE IS A LOW TO LOW TO LOW

COUNT 12 TRADING DAYS FROM TODAY .

USING CALENDAR DAYS .MARCH 18 2009 TO AUG 13 2009 WAS 4 MONTHS 26 DAYS

OR SIMPLY 148 CALENDAR DAYS .

ADDING 148 CALENDAR DAYS TO AUG 13 2009 WOULD TARGET A TURN ON

THE DATE OF JANUARY 8TH .

USING TRADING DAYS YOU NEED TO CONSIDER THE HOLIDAYS COMING UP

BUT THE DATE IS GOING TO BE VERY CLOSE .

MY OWN CYCLES HAVE JAN 1 FOR A PEAK IN THIS TREND .

FOLLOW UP ON LINDSAY'S BASIC ADVANCE AND DECLINES CHART

LETS THINK OF A FEW THINGS HERE . THE PUT CALL RATIO IS REACHING AN EXTREME

YET NEEDS TO CLOSE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE END OF THE MONTH OF DEC .

THE 10 DAY TRIN IS STILL HEADING LOWER AND THE BEST BEARISH POSITIONS ARE TAKEN WITH READINGS

AT OR BELOW 1.00 , AND THERE IS AN EQUAL TIME EQUATION BETWEEN THE ALL TIME HIGH

( BLUE ) AND THE NOV 2008 LOWS WHICH IS THE LAST WEEK OF THIS YEAR .

THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE SOME SORT OF MOMENTUM HIGH JUST AS IT WAS A MOMENTUM LOW

IN NOV 2008. FROM JAN TO AUGUST COULD BE A LARGER SIDEWAYS RANGE BOUND MARKET

OR A SLOW GRIND HIGHER . EITHER WAY WE NEED TO SEE HOW THE MARKET TRADES

BETWEEN EARLY JAN INTO MID MARCH BEFORE THAT CAN BE PROJECTED FORWARD.

HERE IS SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER AND IT ALL FITS TOGETHER

ASK YOURSELF A SIMPLE QUESTION . WHERE IS THE MARKET IN THIS CHART

IF THIS IS TRACING OUT FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOWS ?

THE BEST COUNT WOULD BE WE ARE NEARING POINT 3 . 6 TO 8 MONTHS OF A SIDEWAYS

MOVE WOULD TARGET JUNE AUGUST FOR POINT 7.

SHORTER TERM IM STILL CONSIDERING THE CHART BELOW AS A MINOR PATTERN

INTO AUGUST .

WHAT'S THE POINT TO THIS ??

WE STILL NEED TO BE FLEXIBLE TO TRADING BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET OVER THE COMING

MONTHS . HERE IS SOMETHING I AM RESEARCHING IN REGARDS TO THIS PATTERN.

ACCORDING TO LINDSAY A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT FROM POINTS 3 TO 7 SHOULD LAST

8 MONTHS + OR - , YET THE DOMED HOUSE SIDE SHOULD LAST A LITTLE SHORTER

IN TERMS OF DURATION YET THE MARKET SHOULD BE STRONGER . OVERALL THIS PATTERN

IS AN A B C PATTERN AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED . TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE

POINTS 3 4 5 6 7 ON THIS CHART LASTED ONLY 75 TRADING HOURS . ( ROUGHLY 10

TRADING DAYS ) IF THE DOW WAS TO DROP EARLY TOMORROW ID LOOK FOR SUPPORT

IN THE 10377-10344 RANGE AND THEN COUNT 75 TRADING HOURS FROM THAT LOW

TO LOOK FOR A HIGH . WEATHER IT IS OF IMPORTANCE OR NOT REMAINS TO

BE SEEN .

NASDAQ 100

PRICE AND TIME COME TOGETHER AT THE END OF THE YEAR AT 1887.95

THAT IS ROUGHLY 2.63 % ABOVE TODAY'S CLOSE .

ID SAY WE STILL NEED TO BE PATIENT EVEN THOUGH THE BEARISH CASE IS GROWING

IVE SPENT PLENTY OF TIME SHOWING WHY WE SHOULD LOOK FOR A PEAK LATER

IN THE YEAR . BUT IM NOT BLIND TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPORTANT

PEAK COMING SOONER .

GOOD LUCK TRADING AND REGARDLESS OF YOUR FAITH I WISH YOU ALL

GOOD HEALTH AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY .

OLD

I POSTED THIS LATE YET IT IS THE NEXT PEACE OF THE PUZZLE TO ALL OF THIS

THIS CHART IS CUT UP A LITTLE ,THESE WERE SOME NOTES I MADE TO MYSELF.

AFTER READING BELOW TAKE THE TIME TO FILL IN THE BLANKS AND SEE

HOW OR IF IT CORRELATES .

QUOTED FROM LINDSAY'S SELECTED ARTICLES

A SUBNORMAL ADVANCE AVERAGES 584 CALENDAR DAYS

THE SHORTEST WAS 414 CALENDAR DAYS

THE LONGEST 684 CALENDAR DAYS

ID SAY 584-627 CALENDAR DAYS IS THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF A SUBNORMAL ADVANCE

A SHORT BASIC ADVANCE AVERAGES FROM 704 TO 739 CALENDAR DAYS

COUNT THOSE RANGES OF DATES FROM BOTH THE DAY OF THE NOV 2008 LOW

AS WELL AS THE MARCH 2009 LOW .

A SUBNORMAL DECLINE WOULD BE THEN COUNTED FORWARD FOR A MINIMUM

OF 231 CALENDAR DAYS TO 294 CALENDAR DAYS FROM THE STARTING POINT OF

THE DECLINE ( NOT ALWAYS THE TOP BUT IT IS USUALLY THE DAY OF THE HIGH

ON A SUBNORMAL DECLINE IN TERMS OF TIME )

DEC 20

IF YOU WERE LOOKING AT THE STOCK MARKET HIGH FROM 1919

AND COUNTED FORWARD 12 YEARS 3 MONTHS TO 12 YEARS 8 MONTHS

YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR A LOW IN 1932 .

FROM 1929 YOU WOULD HAVE COUNTED FORWARD AGAIN AND HAD BEEN LOOKING

FOR A LOW IN 1942 . HERE IS THE SAME SCENARIO FROM THE 1970'S

THERE IS A POINT TO THIS . THIS IS NYA MONTHLY CHART

DECEMBER 2009 IS 12 YEARS 2 MONTHS FROM OCT 1997 WHICH MAKES JAN 2010 IMPORTANT .

THE NEXT LOW WOULD BE DUE FROM OCT 2010-MARCH 2011. MY OWNS CYCLES POINT TO MAY 2011

FOR A LOW .

DOW MONTHLY

A LITTLE DIFFERENT PICTURE YET MORE OF THE SAME

12 YEARS 3 MONTHS IS FROM THE AUGUST 1997 HIGH

IS THE NOV 2009 LOWS AT 9678.95.

THE NEXT LOW DUE WHICH IS MEASURED FROM THE JAN 2000 TOP , YOU WOULD COUNT

12 YEARS 3 MONTHS TO 12 YEARS 8 MONTHS FORWARD WHICH RUNS INTO APRIL 2012

TO NOV 2012 .

THIS YEAR IS A BENNER BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK YEAR .

PRIOR YEARS OF PEAKS WERE:

1910,1919,1929,1937,1946,1956,1964,1973,1983,1991,2000

DATA FROM YAHOO.

1919 HIGH NOV 3 1919 ( FROM WEB SITE UNKNOWN )

1929 HIGH AUG 30 ( 9 YEARS 9 MONTHS 27 DAYS )(3588 DAYS TOP TO TOP )

1937 HIGH MARCH 10 ( 7 YEARS 6 MONTHS 10 DAYS )(2749 DAYS TOP TO TOP )

NOTE :DOW PEAK JAN 14 2000 PLUS 7 YRS 6 MONTHS 10 DAYS=JULY 24 2007

SPX PEAK MARCH 24 2000 PLUS 7 YEARS 6 MONTHS 10 DAYS =OCT 4 2007

CHART FOR REFERENCE

1946 MAY 28 ( 9 YEARS 2 MONTHS 18 DAYS ) ( 3366 DAYS )

1956 HIGH APRIL 6 AND AUGUST 6-8, DOUBLE TOP (APRIL TOP = 9 YEARS 10 MONTHS 9 DAYS, 3601 DAYS )

AUG 6TH 1956 =( 10 YEARS 9 MONTHS 9 DAYS ,3723 DAYS )

1973 JANUARY 10

1983 NOVEMBER 29 ( 10 YEARS 10 MONTHS 19 DAYS)(3975 DAYS) TOP TO TOP

1991 JUNE, AUGUST, OCT

2000 JAN MARCH SEPT

SUMMATION , TOP TO TOP COUNTS RANGE FROM

9 YEARS 2 MONTHS 18 DAYS (3588 DAYS ) TO

10 YEARS 10 MONTHS 19 DAYS (3975 DAYS )

DOW PEAK JAN 14 2000 PLUS 9 YEARS 2 MONTHS 18 DAYS =APRIL 8 2009

SPX PEAK MARCH 24 2000 PLUS 9 YEARS 2 MONTHS 18 DAYS=JUNE 11 2009

THE JUNE 11 2009 HIGH DID NOT WORK SO WE MUST GO FORWARD

DOW DIVIDED BY GOLD PEAK.

AUG 25 1999 PLUS 10 YEARS 10 MONTHS 19 DAYS = JULY 14 2010

DOW 71 WEEK SWINGS 2000-2004

NOTICE THE EQUAL TIME BETWEEN TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM TO TOP ??

DOW

A SIMILAR TOP TO BOTTOM TO TOP COUNT WOULD BE THE WEEK OF JULY 26 2010

JUST ANOTHER REASON WHY IM SKEPTICAL OF BEING BEARISH AT THIS JUNTURE

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL

TAKE NOTE OF THE JULY 28TH TURN DATE SINCE THIS DATE FALLS WITH IN THE WEEK OF

JULY 26 2010.

THE BEST SHORT TERM BEARISH CYCLE

WOULD BE IN EARLY JANUARY BUT MY BIAS IS THIS MARKET WILL DEFY LOGIC AND HEAD HIGHER

INTO MID YEAR BEFORE REVERSING DOWN .

I REALIZE I DON'T ALWAYS EXPLAIN EVERYTHING IN DETAIL EVEN THOUGH I DO TRY TO .

IN THE END WE ALL HAVE TO USE OUR BRAINS AND DO A BIT OF RESEARCH , IF WE DON'T

THEN WE ARE NOT REALLY LEARNING ANYTHING . SO TAKE THE TIME TO RESEARCH

THIS STUFF ON YOUR OWN .

GOOD LUCK TRADING

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING IMPORTANT TO NOTE .

ONE LAST CHART TO FOLLOW

ACCORDING TO LINDSAY

WHEN A BASIC DECLINE ENDS A BASIC ADVANCE MUST BEGIN FROM THAT POINT .

A LONG BASIC DECLINE BEGAN MAY 21 2001 . YOU DON'T BEGIN FROM THE SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT

ADDING 9 YEARS 2 MONTHS 18 DAYS FROM MAY 21 2001 IS .AUGUST 8TH 2010.

THIS IS THE NEXT IDEAL STARTING POINT FOR ANOTHER BASIC DECLINE .

ILL FOLLOW UP NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO BASIC ADVANCES AND DECLINES

DEC 17

THIS IS A 10 MIN CHART OF THE SP 500 DEC EMINI FUTURES

EVEN USING 24 HOUR TRADING CHARTS THERE IS UNIFORMITY

WITH IN EACH SWING . THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN

BUT WHEN IT WORKS YOU HAVE TO RESPECT IT UNTIL IT FAILS.

BREAKING ABOVE 1103.09 EARLY TOMORROW WOULD SIGNAL

A TEST OF 1104.25 THAT WILL BE THE PIVOTAL LEVEL FOR

FRIDAYS TRADING .NEXT WEEK NEEDS TO HAVE AN OVERALL

STRONG BULLISH TONE TO IT .

GOOD LUCK

DEC 17

TODAY I WENT LONG THE DOW , IM SHOWING THIS SSO CHART FOR PERSPECTIVE

TODAY WE TOUCHED 36.95 WHICH WAS ONLY 3 CENTS FROM MY IDEAL TARGET

THE POINT OF POSTING TRADES IS TO SHOW HOW THIS TIMING MODEL WORKS OVER THE COURSE

OF A YEAR . I TYPICALLY SEE AN 85 PERCENT ACCURACY RATE ON TURNS . SO MY THINKING IS

TO CREATE A FORMULA AND TRADE IT WITH VERY LITTLE MONEY INITIALLY FOR THIS WEB .

SO HERE IS THE FIRST TRADE .ILL PUT THIS IN A SPREAD SHEET AND WILL POST PROFITS AND

LOSSES THOUGH OUT THE YR .I USE A FULL SERVICE BROKER , SO MY COMMISSIONS ARE HIGHER

THEN MOST . LETS SEE HOW IT WORKS OUT OVER THE COMING MONTHS .

STARTING RISK 614.81 ,

QUICK QUESTION , IF YOU WERE GOING TO BE PAID 1 PENNY EACH DAY THAT DOUBLED EACH

DAY FOR 1 MONTH WOULD YOU TAKE THE JOB ??? 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 $1.28 $ 2.56 $5.12 IS THE FIRST 3RD

OF THE MONTH , HOW MUCH IS THE 2ND AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LAST 3RD ??

GOOD LUCK TRADING

NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY .

DEC 17

IF WERE SEEING AN INVERSION THEN FRIDAY OR MONDAY MUST BE A LOW

SO FAR IT IS STILL TO SOON TO MAKE THE CASE THAT THIS IS AN INVERSION EVEN THOUGH

IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS WHAT'S GOING ON .

DEC 16

THIS MARKET AS MEASURED BY THE DOW IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY ORGANIZED

TRIANGLE PATTERN UNFOLDING. TIME WISE USING THIS 3 MINUTE CHART

YOU CAN SEE THE EQUAL TIME DISTANCES WHICH ARE HITTING WITH IN A

FEW MINUTES EACH DAY . THE NEXT CYCLE LOW WOULD BE NEAR THE LAST

30 MINUTES OF THURSDAYS TRADING .

LOWER SUPPORT IN THE DOW IS NOW THE 10375-10368 PRICE LEVEL

KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS 10422.36. THIS LEVEL IS WHERE THE LARGER TIME PRICE

EQUATION IS EQUAL 30 MINUTES BEFORE THE CLOSE THURSDAY .

IF THAT LEVEL IS BROKEN ON THE CLOSE THEN EXPECT TO BE A BUYER OF

A GAP DOWN OPEN ON FRIDAY - MONDAY.

UPDATED CHART OF SSO

THE NEXT EQUAL TIME DISTANCE ON THIS DAILY CHART IS MONDAY

SO THERE ARE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN THE 3 MINUTE CHART AND THE

DAILY CHART TO CONSIDER . ILL LOOK TO BE A BUYER BELOW 37.50

NOTICE THE BLUE LINE AT 37.95 THAT WILL BE MY BREAK OUT LEVEL

TO CONFIRM THE MARKET IS HEADING TO A NEW HIGH . WE CLOSED

BELOW 37.95 TODAY

36.26 MUST HOLD .

DEC 15

I MENTIONED I WOULD SHOW IN MORE DETAIL WHAT I DO THIS NEXT YEAR .

TODAY IM GONG TO GIVE THE IDEA AND THE SET UP IM LOOKING FOR .

LOOK AT TIMING MODEL ABOVE AND ASK YOURSELF THESE QUESTIONS

1) WHAT WAS THE LAST TURN DATE ON THE MODEL ABOVE AND WAS IT A HIGH ?

OR A LOW? ( WHICH WAS EXPECTED ).

2) WHEN IS THE NEXT TURN DATE AND WHY HAVE I BEEN QUESTIONING AN INVERSION

THE PAST FEW WEEKS NOT TO MENTION THE EXPECTATION OF A SIDEWAYS MARKET

TO AS LATE AS MID MARCH ???

NOW AFTER THINK THE TIME PART OF THE EQUATION ASK YOURSELF WHAT TYPE OF TREND

WOULD YOU EXPECT IF YOU WERE LOOKING FOR A TOPPING PROCESS WHICH TEND TO

TAKE LONGER THEN BOTTOM FORMATIONS .

IS THE BIGGER TREND BULLISH OR BEARISH ??? BEARISH

THE SHORTER TERM TREND ?? SIDEWAYS

VERY SHORT TERM TREND ? DOWN , BOTTOMING ,LOOK FOR REVERSAL .

WHAT IS PATTERN AND WHAT KIND OF SET UP IS AVAILABLE TO TRADE FROM NOV 18

TO JAN 1 ??.

SEE BELOW AND THINK ABOUT IT ALL . THAT IS MY NEXT TRADE .

IM NOT MAKING A BUY OR SELL RECOMMENDATION IM JUST MAKING NOTE OF MY TRADE

IM LOOKING FOR AS THE TIMING MODEL INVERTS AND THEN I LOOK WHAT TO EXPECT.

WHAT ID LOOK TO DO IS BE A BUYER BELOW 37.50 , IDEALLY 36.93 INTO DEC 18-21

AND THEN A STRONG THRUST UP TOWARDS 36.69-41.16.

NOW WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH ???

3 TO 5 PTS LOW TO HIGH IN 2 WEEKS ROUGHLY WHICH INCLUDES A HOLIDAY.

HENCE IF YOUR WRONG THE OPTIONS PREMIUM WILL DECLINE.

HOW CAN I DOUBLE MY MONEY BUYING A JAN CALL OPTION AND TRADE ONLY

3 PTS .???

THINK ABOUT IT .

DEC 15

THE TRIANGLE TURNED OUT TO BE A B WAVE TRIANGLE WHICH LEAVES ME WITH A FEW

THOUGHTS , FIRST OF ALL POINT 10 WAS THE 10235.63 LOW ON DEC 9 , THIS LEAVES US

WITH POINT 11 YESTERDAY AT THE 10514.66 HIGH . SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR POINT 12

TO STAY ABOVE 10235.66 . POINTS 11 12 13 14 SHOULD ALL BE A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT .

POINT 12 CAN BE LABELED COMPLETE AS OF THIS MORNINGS LOW . IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE

CASE THEN POINT 13 AND 14 SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY TOMORROW .

GOOD LUCK

DEC 14

KEEP AN EYE ON 10532 CLOSELY TOMORROW.

SHORT TERM CHART BELOW

DEC 14

UPDATED CHART WHICH WAS POSTED EARLIER

THE FIRST 41 MINUTE OF THE DAY SHOULD SET THE TONE AND CLEAR

UP THE VERY SHORT TERM TRIANGLE FORMATION.

10443 IS STILL IMPORTANT BUT SHORTER TERM

10508-10509.82 IS KEY RESISTANCE VERY SHORT TERM TOMORROW MORNING

FOR THE FIRST 41 MINUTES OF TRADING . KEY SUPPORT FOR THIS SAME

TIME FRAME IS 10490.39 THEN 10484 THEN 10477 .

IF WE SEE A GAP UP LOOK FOR RESISTANCE NEAR 10508-10509 ,

THEN LOOK FOR EITHER A FURTHER BREAK OUT TO 10532

OR A DECLINE THAT MUST STAY ABOVE 10493.19 WHICH WOULD BE

LABELED WAVE E .

ILL POST AN UPDATE OF THIS CLEANED UP 2 HOURS AFTER THE OPEN

TOMORROW .

DEC 14

CHART OF THE DAY

THIS IS A 1 MINUTE BAR CHART OF TODAY'S TRADING ACTION.

IT IS NOW 12 O'CLOCK AS WE ENTER THE HOUR OF THE DAY .

10495 IS KEY PRICE FOR A POSSIBLE BREAK OUT INTO THE CLOSE

KEY SUPPORT IS NOW 10443.94 OVER THE NEXT FEW TRADING DAYS

TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT ALL THE EQUAL TIME DISTANCES THAT HAVE

MARKED SHORT TERM MARKET TURNS , NOW LOOK AT THE NARROWING WEDGE

WHICH WAY WILL THE MARKET BREAK ???

10495.99 KEY

10488 NEXT

TIME IS UP IF MARKET IS GOING TO BREAK TO UPSIDE THEN NOW SHOULD BE A GOOD TIME

DEC 14

I HAVE NOTHING TO GAIN BY THIS . IM NOT SURE OF THIS GUYS WORK BUT WHAT I LIKE

IS MY GUT TELLS ME HE IS OPEN MINDED AND SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT I GATHER

( I JUST CAME ACROSS HIM ) DISCIPLINED. SO IM POSTING THIS LINK FOR ANOTHER

PERSPECTIVE . HOPE YOU FIND IT HELPFUL AS YOU PLAN FOR THE NEXT YEARS TRADING

JUST COPY AND PASTE IF YOUR INTERESTED . IT'S A GOOD LINK

http://elliotticians.blogspot.com/

DEC 12

WHAT DAY DO THE INDEX OPTIONS EXPIRE ???

IM STARTING OUT TODAY WITH THE CHART I HAVE BEEN POSTING WITH MORE LABELS ON IT THEN BEFORE .

I MENTIONED THE 2 YR CYCLE PEAK IN MID JAN A WHILE BACK AND IF THE CYCLE IS GOING TO WORK

AS IT IS SUPPOSED TO THEN WE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO A STRONG MOVE TO THE UPSIDE .

SO FAR WE HAVE 5 SMALL WAVES UP SO A BREAK BELOW 10448 LEVEL SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN A MINOR

WAVE 2 . 10325.20 WOULD BE CONSIDERED A WAVE 2 EXTREME WHICH SHOULDN'T LAST MORE THEN A

FEW HOURS AT BEST . ANY FURTHER BREAK DOWN MUST HOLD ABOVE 10235.62

SEE NEXT CHART FOR MORE DETAIL .

GEORGE LINDSAY PATTERN DEC 2009 TO JUNE 2010

THREE PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERNS DON'T ALWAYS SHOW UP YET I WANT TO SHOW MY INTERPRETATION

BECAUSE I THINK IT BLENDS VERY WELL WITH THE CHART ABOVE .

THE PATTERN WOULD HAVE BEGUN AT THE NOVEMBER LOWS , THIS CHART IS A DAILY CHART.

THE REASON FOR THIS TYPE OF LABELING IN ADVANCE IS BASED ON AN INVERSION TAKING

PLACE IN MY SHORTER TERM TIMING MODEL . MOST LIKELY IF THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CASE

THEN POINT 15 SHOULD COME NEAR EITHER THE DEC 18-21 TIME PERIOD OR IN EARLY JANUARY

BOTTOM LINE : EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE 10235.63 PRICE LEVEL . BREAKING BELOW THAT

FROM HERE ON OUT VIOLATES THE PATTERN , WITH THE MARKET OVERALL COMING OFF OF SOME

EXTREME OVERSOLD READINGS WE HAVE TO CONSIDER THIS CHART AS POSSIBLE .