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CHART UPDATED JULY 23 , 2010 (CLOSE ) ( MARKET CLOSED JULY 5 YET FRIDAYS PRICE CLOSE IS ADDED TO MODEL ) EVERY YEAR FROM NOVEMBER TO FEB I USUALLY SEE AN INVERSION TAKE PLACE NEXT TURN DATE IS JULY 2O-28TH ( A HIGH IS DUE ) RED LINE IS DOW DAILY CLOSE
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TRADING LOG FOR 2010. THE PURPOSE OF THIS LOG IS TO SHOW ACTUAL TRADING INCLUDING COMMISSIONS USING A FULL SERVICE BROKER . AS YOU CAN SEE COMMISSIONS ( FEE'S ) EAT UP TRADE RESULTS OPEN POSITIONS: OCT 2010 SLV 20 CALLS ,JAN 2011 UNG 9 CALLS, DEC 2010 XLI 28 PUTS
SEE BELOW FOR SHORT TERM TRADING
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HIT REFRESH FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
---------------- -- NOTE : UPDATE BELOW JULY 25 NEXT UPDATE WILL BE THURSDAY IM BACK AT WORK SO UPDATES WILL BE MIXED OVER THE COMING DAYS UNTIL I HAVE MY SCHEDULE LINED UP . THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH IS DUE ON TUESDAY JULY 27TH THERE IS A SERIES IN TERMS OF TERM THAT RELATES MONDAY JULY 26TH TO AUGUST 3RD 2010 BOTH OF THESE DATES SHOULD MARK HIGH POINTS ( WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE CRITICAL TOPPING TIME FRAME) AT THIS POINT IN TIME IM NOT SURE IF THE AUG 3RD HIGH WILL BE A LOWER HIGH OR A HIGHER HIGH THEN THE HIGHS WE SHOULD SEE OVER THE NEXT FEW TRADING DAYS . KEY RESISTANCE ON THE SPX IS STILL 1115-1116 YET ON THE DOW WE ARE NOW INTO RESISTANCE . BOTTOM LINE : TIMING MODEL PRICE PATTERN AND INTERNALS ARE TELLING ME TO START LOOKING FOR A TOP
THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE PEAKED ON JULY 20TH AND IS MAKING A LOWER PEAK AS THE DOW AND OVERALL MARKET MADE A NEW HIGH ON FRIDAY THIS IS A SMALL BEARISH DIVERGENCE WHICH IS SOMETHING WE SHOULD BE SEEING WHEN LOOKING FOR A CYCLE HIGH , THIS INDICATOR IS ALSO IN ITS HISTORICAL UPPER RANGE .
JULY 18 THE MONTHLY DOW IS STILL FOLLOWING THE BROAD PICTURE I HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR THE MONTH OF JULY THE DOW SHOULD CLOSE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE . ( NOT FAR FROM PRESENT LEVELS ) BOTTOM LINE : I SEE THE MARKET AS TOPPING IN THE BROADER PICTURE , EXPECT SURPRISES TO THE DOWNSIDE INTO NOVEMBER 6TH 2010 YET ALSO LOOK FOR LOWER PRICES INTO FEB 27TH 2011 THE SHORT TERM WHIPSAWS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY THEMSELVES OUT AND THE MARKET SHOULD END UP MUCH LOWER .
DAILY SPX SHORT TERM I HAD EXPECTED TO SEE THE SPX FALL FROM EARLY THIS PAST WEEK AND THEN BOUNCE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK UP TOWARDS THE 1115 PRICE AREA. HOWEVER LAST WEEK BEING AN OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK I AVOIDED THE MARKET ACTION ( ITS JUST SOMETHING I TEND TO DO ) POINT WISE FROM HIGH TO LOW WE ACTUALLY GOT A STRONGER DECLINE THEN I HAD EXPECTED YET WE GOT THIS DECLINE FROM HIGHER LEVELS . 1061.61-1048.96 IS SHORT TERM SUPPORT . LOWER SUPPORT IS 1027.90 YET I DOUBT IT GETS HIT .( SHORT TERM ) KEY RESISTANCE IS UNCHANGED AT THE 1115 LEVEL. ( THIS CHART WAS LAST UPDATED JULY 10TH )
JULY 14 FRIDAY JULY 16TH IS THE NEXT MATHEMATICAL TURN DATE , MONDAY JULY 19TH IS THE 2 YEAR SUB CYCLE HIGH THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL HAS TENDED TO BE 5 DAYS OFF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL TURNS , THIS LEAVES THE MARKET HOLDING UP INTO JULY 21 WHICH IS NEXT WEDNESDAY . THE PAST 2 TRADING SESSIONS HAS BROUGHT THE DOW INTO THE 10379-10487 RESISTANCE ZONE . I HAVE NOTHING REALLY TO CHANGE FROM MY PRIOR POSTS . I STILL SEE THIS IS A LARGE TOPPING CYCLE . GOOD LUCK TRADING
JULY 12 THIS WEEK IS AN OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK , NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WEDNESDAY . I TEND TO AVOID OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEKS AND I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE MY THOUGHTS SINCE THE WEEKEND UPDATE GOOD LUCK TRADING JULY 10 TODAY IM GOING TO SHOW WHAT I THINK IS GOING ON FROM A LONG TERM BULLISH POINT OF VIEW . NEXT WEEK SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR TURN IN THE MARKETS LONG TERM RESISTANCE IS THE RANGE OF 10334.03-11300.05 THE APRIL HIGH'S FAILED TO MAKE IT ABOVE THE UPPER ZONE WHICH IS WHY I CONTINUE TO STAY BEARISH . THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE IS NOW 10334.03 YET THE RANGE IS 10334-10791. THE DIAGRAM ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT OF THIS CHART SHOWS US WHERE WE STAND WITH IN THE PATTERN. BASICALLY BEFORE THIS YEAR IS OUT IM LOOKING FOR THE DOW TO BE IN THE 8000 AREA . AFTER WHICH WE WOULD HAVE A VERY SLUGGISH MARKET FOR A COUPLE YEARS . FROM 2012 INTO 2017 2018 WE WOULD THEN GO BACK UP AND TEST THE 2007 HIGH'S AND THEN FAIL THEN WE GO INTO ANOTHER MAJOR DECLINE PHASE INTO 2021 ROUGHLY . IF ALL THIS WAS TO FOLLOW THE PATH I HAVE SHOWN HERE THEN WE WOULD THEN LABEL THE END OF THE BEAR MARKET FROM THE 2000 PEAK AS A 4TH WAVE TRIANGLE . FROM THE 2021 TIME PERIOD WOULD THEN BEGIN A LONG TERM 5TH WAVE TO THE UPSIDE . FROM A TIMING POINT OF VIEW THE TREND SHOULD STILL BE DOWN INTO MARCH 2011 NOV 2012 . HOW FAR DOWN IS SPECULATIVE ILL ADMIT .YET THE MORE I LOOK AT THIS MARKET THE MORE I HAVE TO TAKE THE STAND THAT WE SAW A MAJOR LOW IN MARCH 2009 . C WAVES WITH IN A TRIANGLE DO AT TIMES MAKE NEW LOWS BELOW THE WAVE A LOW SO I DON'T SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH THIS WAVE COUNT . THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY ( LETS GO TO THE SHORT TERM )
A LITTLE FLATHER LATTER . THE JAN 15 2010 SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENED TO BE RIGHT AT THE HIGH POINT IN THE DOW . ON SUNDAY JULY 11 TH THERE IS ANOTHER SOLAR ECLIPSE . IF YOU READ WHAT SOME OF THE ASTROLOGY PEOPLE SAY ( IM NO ASTROLOGY GUY ) THEY CLAIM THIS SOLAR ECLIPSE WILL BE POWERFUL AND TIES INTO WHAT IS TERMED A CARDINAL CLIMAX WHICH RUNS INTO 2012 . TO ADD TO THIS IF YOU FOLLOW THE MAYAN MAYAN CALENDAR ( I DON'T ) THEN THE DEC 21 2012 DATE WILL POINT TO THE END OF THE WORLD . SO I ASK MYSELF WHY DO MY OWN CYCLES WORK SEEM TO COINCIDE WITH ALL OF THIS ? IN MY WORK THE LATE 2012 TIME PERIOD IS A MAJOR LOW IN THE STOCK PRICES FROM WHICH WE SHOULD SEE A 5 YEAR RALLY . THAT IS WHERE THE CHART ABOVE COMES IN . NOW LETS GET TO THE SHORT TERM . THE SOLAR ECLIPSE ON JULY 11 HAPPENS TO TIE INTO MY SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL WHICH IS CALLING FOR A LOW ON JULY 12TH ( THIS MONDAY ) YET IF WE LOOK AT THE CHART BELOW AND FOCUS ON THE JAN 15TH HIGH IN 2010 WE CAN SEE THE MARKET HAD A MINI CRASH AND DECLINED FOR 13 TRADING DAYS THE LOW ON FEB 5TH WAS 21 CALENDAR DAYS FOLLOWING THE SOLAR ECLIPSE THIS CHART SHOWS WHAT THE DOW WOULD LOOK LIKE IF WE GOT THE SAME KIND OF PRICE ACTION . IAM BEARISH I HAVE SHORT POSITIONS AND YET LOOK WHERE THE TARGETED LOW WOULD COME IN IF WE GOT THE SAME TYPE OF PRICE ACTION ? 21 CALENDAR DAYS FROM JULY 11 IS AUG 1 2010 ( IF YOU USED MONDAY JULY 12 YOU GET AUG 2 2010 AND THAT IS THE TIME PERIOD I HAVE HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP AND DOWN ABOUT BEING THE TOP FOR THE YEAR !!!!!( DOES THIS LOOK LIKE IM COMPLETELY WRONG ??? ) LETS GO TO A NEW CHART .
GOING A BIT FURTHER INTO THIS SO WE CAN NARROW DOWN WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING WEEKS THE QUESTION BECOMES IF THE ENTIRE WORLD ALREADY THINKS THE MARKET WILL FOLLOW THE JAN 15 TYPE MOVE THEN MOST LIKELY WHAT WILL THE MARKET DO ??? WHAT IF WE SEE THE OPPOSITE OR SOMETHING SIMILAR YET OPPOSITE . IN OTHER WORDS WHAT IF WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE A WHIPSAW ? I REALIZE THE 5 WAVE COUNT IS SLOPPY YET I USE IT TO GAUGE TIME . A TYPICAL TIME RETRACEMENT FOLLOWING A 5 WAVE MOVE IS .382 . THIS TARGETS JULY 27TH IN TERMS OF TRADING DAYS . ADDING 18 TRADING DAYS TO THE JULY LOWS I GET JULY 27TH . IF YOU ADD 13 TRADING DAYS FOLLOWING THE SOLAR ECLIPSE YOU WILL GET JULY 28TH . BOTTOM LINE IF THIS MARKET EXTENDS UPWARDS INTO JULY 27-AUG 2 THEN IM GOING TO CONCLUDE THAT MY LARGER CYCLES WHICH CALL FOR A PEAK IN EARLY AUGUST TO BE DEAD ON AND THIS MARKET WILL THEN DECLINE HARD TOWARDS 8000 INTO THE END OF THE YEAR . ONE MORE CHART
JULY 16 IS THE NEXT TURN DATE ON THIS CHART FOLLOWED BY JULY 29TH ( RIGHT INTO THE EARLY AUG PERIOD ) 9942 IS SUPPORT . RESISTANCE OF IMPORTANCE IS 10379-10487. THE PRICE ACTION NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AS WILL THE FOLLOWING WEEKS PRICE ACTION FOR THE SET UP TO TAKE A LONGER AGGRESSIVE BEARISH STANCE NOT TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE ,IT IS CALLING FOR A HIGH JULY 28 TH .
JULY 8 THE DOW FAILED TO TURN DOWN TODAY WHICH KEEPS THE BULLISH CYCLES ON TRACK. IM A BIT MIXED AS TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS . THE DOW ALSO BROKE ABOVE THE UPPER RESISTANCE AT 10103. FOR NOW IM GOING TO FOCUS ON THE MONTHLY CHART AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE THE DOW IS STILL DOWN FOR THE YEAR. NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY GOOD LUCK TRADING
JULY 7 THIS IS AN ADDITION TO TODAY'S ALREADY POSTED UPDATE. EVERY ONCE WE NEED TO TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT THE DEVELOPING WAVE COUNTS AND DO THE BEST WE CAN TO HAVE AN HONEST UN BIASED OPINION. WHEN WE ARE ARE TRADING THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REALIZE IS WE DO NOT CARE WHAT DIRECTION THE MARKET GOES IN . THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A DEVELOPING PATTERN ACTUALLY FOLLOWING THE PREDICTED PATH THAT WE ARE LOOKING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF . IF YOU LOOK AROUND THE WEB YOU WILL SEE MANY SUPPOSED 5 WAVE COUNTS WITH ALL KINDS OF FANCY WAVE 2 LABELS AND THE PROPOSED WAVE 3 OF 3 JUST AROUND THE CORNER EXPECTATIONS . BUT LETS TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK TODAY AND DECIDE JUST WHAT HAS REALLY TRACED OUT . C WAVES TEND TO ACT LIKE 3RD WAVES ( BUT THEY ARE C WAVES NOT 3RD WAVES ) FROM THE APRIL HIGHS TO THE FLASH CRASH LOW WAS 3 WAVES THE RALLY UP TO 10900 ANOTHER 3 WAVES . THE DROP FROM 10900 INTO LATE MAY WAS 5 WAVES . A B C PATTERNS TEND TO BE WAVE STRUCTURES THAT ARE 3 WAVE MOVES WEATHER IT BE 1 2 3 ( A ) THEN 1 2 3 ( B ) AND THEN 1 2 3 4 5 ( C ) OR 1 2 3 ( C ) THE ENTIRE PATTERN IS CORRECTIVE AND IS LABELED A B C . THIS MAKES THE CASE THAT THE DROP FROM APRIL 26 TO THE MAY LOWS WAS NOTHING MORE THEN AN A B C DECLINE . CORRECTIVE DECLINE CAN SUBDIVIDE INTO WHAT IS LABELED A DOUBLE OR TRIPLE 3 HENCE IT IS LABELED A B C X A B C .THIS ALSO CAN BE A SERIES OF 3 WAVE MOVES ALONG WITH 5'S WITH IN IT . WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN ? IT MEANS WE SHOULD NOT GET OVERLY CAUGHT UP IN TRYING TO MAKE A FORCED 5 WAVE COUNT . THE TREND HAS BEEN DOWN THE CYCLES ARE TURNING DOWN . THIS IS MORE IMPORTANT TO ME RIGHT NOW . AS FOR FOR THE MOST IMPORTANT RESISTANCE ?? IT IS THE JUNE 21 TOP . CAN WE NARROW THAT DOWN ? YES ,BUT WE SHOULD GIVE THIS BULLISH CYCLE SOME MORE TIME BEFORE CALLING THE EXACT TOP AT A CERTAIN PRICE . I NOTED THAT I WAS LOOKING FOR THE NEXT CYCLE HIGH JULY 20 TH 28TH . TO KEEP IT SIMPLE ILL CALL THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME OF JULY 16 TO AUG 1ST ALL A MASSIVE TIME FRAME FOR A TOP . LOOKING AT ACTUAL MARKET TURNS USING LOW TO HIGH COUNTS AS WELL AS HIGH TO LOW COUNTS . TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THIS CHART AND ITS LABELING ALONG WITH THE DOWN TREND LINE AND THE LOW TO HIGH COUNTS . BOTTOM LINE : JULY 16TH IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT MATHEMATICAL TURN DATE ( A FRIDAY ) THE FOLLOWING MONDAY IS JULY 19TH ( A 2 YEAR SUB CYCLE HIGH ,) I HAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LATE JULY EARLY AUGUST PERIOD SO MANY TIMES AND NOW WE ARE ENTERING THIS TIME PERIOD THE BEST AND CLEANEST WAY TO COUNT THIS IS THE LABELING SHOWN BELOW . B WAVES ARE LIKE WILDCARDS , THERE IS NO RULES THAT APPLY , THEY HAVE THE RIGHT TO GO WHERE EVER THEY WANT . THIS LEAVES ME WITH OWN ONE THING TO CONSIDER . TIME SEE PRIOR POST BELOW FOR SHORT TERM THOUGHTS . WE WILL TOUCH ON THIS CHART PATTERN IN MORE DETAIL IN THE COMING DAYS . GOOD LUCK TRADING SEE YOU TOMORROW ASK YOURSELF THIS QUESTION : IS THERE ANYTHING WRONG WITH THIS WAVE COUNT ? THEN PICK IT APART . THEN ASK YOURSELF THIS QUESTION : HOW MANY ACTUAL CLEAN 5 WAVE MOVEMENTS DO YOU SEE ? FOCUS ON THE WORD CLEAN ( AS APPOSED TO COMPLETE AND UTTER SLOP )
JULY 7 THE MARKET THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS JUST COMPLETED A TEXT BOOK ABC PATTERN. USING THE CLOSING NUMBERS THE DOW'S CLOSE TODAY WAS JUST ABOUT EXACT . USING LOW TO HIGH PRINT NUMBERS 10056.06 WOULD BE ABOUT IT SHORT TERM. THERE IS A SHORT TERM TIMELINE FOR TOMORROW 1 TO 1 1/2 HOURS FOLLOWING THE OPEN .IF THIS TIME FRAME IS A TOP ( WHICH IT PROBABLY IS ) THEN TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FLAT TO DOWN DAY . THE DECLINE SHOULD LAST FOR ABOUT 1 1/2 DAYS . BOTTOM LINE :FRI/ MON JULY 9TH-12 TH WILL PROBABLY BE SOME KIND OF SWING LOW FROM WHICH ANOTHER LEG UP WOULD TAKE US INTO JULY 20 TH 28TH BEFORE A PEAK. I DON'T HAVE ANY FIRM OPINION ON THE PRESENT PATTERN TAKING SHAPE SO JUST GOING TO KEEP MY EYES OPEN AND WATCH THE NEXT FEW TRADING DAYS. IF TOMORROW IS A DOWN DAY MY BIAS IS IT WILL BE AN X WAVE OF A LARGER A B C PATTERN TO THE UPSIDE . A VERY STEEP DECLINE THOUGH BACK BELOW 9658 WOULD LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR A POSSIBLE TRIANGLE FORMATION . LONGER TERM BETWEEN NOW INTO JULY 20 28TH THE MARKET SHOULD HOLD UP. NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW GOOD LUCK TRADING .
JULY 5 THE SHORT TERM CHART VERSUS THE DAILY CHART IS GIVING A MIXED MESSAGE. TOMORROW'S OPEN WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE SHORT TERM 60 MINUTE WAVE COUNT.( SHOWN BELOW THE DAILY CHART ) THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE TO MY THOUGHTS FROM THIS WEEKEND THE DOW CHART SHORT TERM WAS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT TODAY. SEE WEEKEND UPDATE FOR MY PRIOR THOUGHTS . CHART POSTED JUST BEFORE THE CLOSE . A NEW BELOW TODAY'S LOW ON THE DOW AND SPX IS NEEDED BEFORE I CAN LABEL THIS DAILY CHART AS A WAVE IV OF WAVE 3 . UNTIL THAT HAPPENS THERE IS STILL A RISK OF A FURTHER BOUNCE . KEY RESISTANCE STAYS AT 9907-10103 SUPPORT STILL SITS AT THE YEARLY PIVOT OF 9110.
DOW 60 MINUTE CHART NO 5 WAVES DOWN FROM TODAY'S HIGH . TODAY'S LATE DAY BOUNCE WOULD NEED TO BE A MINOR WAVE 4 IF TODAY HIGH WAVE WAVE IV OF 3. THIS IMPLIES A GAP DOWN OPEN TOMORROW, YET IF THAT WAS TO COME TRUE THE DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE WOULD ONLY BE A TEST OF THAT LOW . THIS WOULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE MARKET AND LEAVE MOST WITH A BULLISH BIAS . ON THE OTHER HAND IF WE SEE MUCH STRENGTH TOMORROW THEN TODAY'S BOUNCE IF JUST A PART OF A MORE COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE IN WHICH CASE THE DAILY CHART BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT TO THE WAVE COUNT. BOTTOM LINE : MIXED MARKET AND MANY BULLS TRYING TO CALL FOR A BOTTOM . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW GOOD LUCK TRADING .
JULY 4 2010 KEY RESISTANCE ON THE DOW SITS IN THE RANGE OF 9907-10103 ( VERY IMPORTANT SHORT TERM ) SUPPORT SITS AT 9110 ( THIS YEARS PIVOT LEVEL ) WE ARE ENTERING A CYCLE LOW POINT RIGHT NOW , THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD AND DUE FOR A BOUNCE WE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUNTER TREND RALLY BACK TO THE UPSIDE INTO JULY 20TH 28TH . THE 60 MINUTE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN IS CONSIDERED COMPLETE AT THIS TIME . THE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT THOUGH IS NOT COMPLETE ( SEE BELOW ) BOTTOM LINE : MY LONGER TERM CYCLES ARE TURNING DOWN , THE SHORTER TERM 2 YEAR SUB CYCLE AND THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL ARE CALLING FOR A SHORT TERM LOW THIS WEEK. I INTEND TO REMAIN BEARISH THROUGH OUT THE POTENTIAL RALLY PHASE .
THE DAILY WAVE COUNT IS NO WHERE NEAR A LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME . THE DAILY CHART HAS THE DOW STILL IN A 3RD WAVE DOWN . 9907.98 IS ABOUT IT FOR WAVE IV IF A BOUNCE WAS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE ON THE DAILY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE IS SHOWING BULLISH DIVERGENCE RIGHT NOW . IT IS PRESENTLY MAKING A HIGHER LOW AS THE MARKET IS MAKING A LOWER LOW . WE ARE ALSO INTO THE TIME WINDOW FOR A CYCLE LOW . THE ODDS ARE THAT THE MARKET WILL MOST LIKELY FORM SOME KIND OF A COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE AND WILL BOUNCE INTO THE NEXT SHORT TERM TURN DATE OF JULY 20 28TH . WE MAY ONLY SEE A WEAK BOUNCE SIMILAR TO THE WEAK RALLY FROM JUL15 TO AUG 11 2008 AS WEAK AS THAT RALLY WAS IT STILL PRODUCED A RALLY OF 1039 POINTS . A SIMILAR MOVE FROM THE MAY 26 LOW IN THE ADVANCE DECLINE TO THE JUNE 21 HIGH COMPARED TO THE DOW TODAY WOULD TARGET 10438. BOTTOM LINE : WE ARE INTO THE 2 YR SUB CYCLE LOW AND THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL CALLS FOR A LOW ON JULY 12, THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE HAS NOT YET TURNED UP YET IT TENDS TO JUST BEFORE THE MARKET DOES , THE PRESENT BULLISH DIVERGENCES SHOULD BE RESPECTED . ( see month chart below )
DOW MONTHLY COMPARISON WE NOW HAVE THE NECKLINE OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN IN PLACE BASED ON THE CLOSING NUMBERS . A BOUNCE WOULD FIT WELL WITH THIS OVER THE COMING MONTH . BOTTOM LINE : BEING HEDGED WITH SOME BULLISH EXPOSURE MIGHT BE A GOOD CHOICE YET I DON'T INTEND TO LET GO OF MY BEARISH POSITIONS . CHART UPDATED AS OF THE CLOSE OF JUNE 2010.
JULY 2 I WENT TO VISIT FAMILY THIS PAST WEEK AND LEFT LAPTOP AT HOME ON ACCIDENT ILL UPDATE THIS PAGE ON SUNDAY . SORRY FOR DELAY'S AND HAVE A HAPPY 4TH OF JULY JUNE 28 NO CHANGE FROM PRIOR POST TODAY THIS IS THE 5 MINUTE CHART OF THE SPX . 9 WAVE TRIANGLES ARE RARE AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY FIT MY THOUGHTS FOR A COMPLEX WAVE IV . TODAY'S HIGH NOW MUST HOLD AND WE SHOULD MAKE NEW LOWS SOON BELOW LAST WEEKS LOWS .
JUNE 28 THE DOW IS IN A 4TH WAVE . THE PROBLEM IS IM NOT SURE WHICH DEGREE. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE THE KEY , IF WE BREAK ABOVE THEM LOOK FOR A MOVE TOWARDS 10294-10322 . THIS RANGE IS KEY RESISTANCE . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY BEFORE THE OPEN
JUNE 27 WE ARE NOT IN A 1987 STYLE CYCLE YET THE SIMILARITIES ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING. THE CHART ON THE LEFT IS THE PEAK LEADING INTO THE CRASH OF 1987. THE CHART ON THE RIGHT IS THE SECONDARY PEAK FROM MAY 12 2010 TO FRIDAYS CLOSE IN BOTH CASES WE HAVE TOP TO TOP TO TOP COUNTS OF 13 TO 14 DAYS ( BASICALLY SAME DURATION) ALSO IN BOTH CASES WE HAVE A LOW TO LOW TO HIGH IN BASICALLY THE SAME DURATION . THE DIFFERENCE THOUGH IS IN 1987 WE WENT LOWER AND BROKE THE LOWS . SO FAR IN THIS CYCLE WE HAVE YET TO BREAK THOSE MAY LOWS . THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ON THE HOURLY CHART THAT I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT . SEE MONTHLY CHART SHOWN YESTERDAY
JUNE 26 KEEPING IT SIMPLE TODAY BLACK IS DOW FROM MARCH 2009 TO DATE RED IS THE DOW THE LAST TIME IT HAD A 414 CALENDAR DAY RALLY AND WHAT HAPPENED FOLLOWING THAT PEAK. WEATHER THIS MARKET TRIES TO RUN UPWARDS OR NOT I HAVE TO KEEP A BEARISH BIAS . THE NEXT CYCLE LOW IS DUE JULY 2ND TO JULY 12TH . UNTIL I SEE HOW THE MARKET REACTS NEXT WEEK IT IS TO SOON TO BE AGGRESSIVELY BEARISH . I DO HAVE MY MONEY ON THE BEARISH SIDE OF THINGS . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY . SORRY FOR SHORT UPDATE YET TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BE ABLE TO PUT MORE OF THIS TOGETHER FOLLOWING THE CLOSE MONDAY . LOOK AT THE BLACK AND RED LINES THAT REPRESENT THE MONTHLY CLOSES . NOTICE HOW THE BLACK LINES APPEAR TO BE EARLY BY ONE MONTH ? IN OTHER WORDS TRY TO SEE THE BLACK LINES PUSHED TO THE RIGHT 1 BAR . THIS IMPLIES WE COULD BREAK DOWN SOONER RATHER THEN LATER . BOTH JULY AND AUGUST WILL BECOME PIVOTAL MONTHS . TO KEEP THIS ANALOGY PERFECT THE DOW WOULD RUN UP SLIGHTLY TO CLOSE THE MONTH ,YET THE SHORT TERM CYCLES ARE STILL CALLING FOR A LOW JULY 2ND 12TH . NOT EVERYTHING WORKS OUT EXACTLY EACH TIME . ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO THE RED LINES AND THE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN NOTICE THE DOWN SLOPE AND THE WEAK RIGHT SHOULDER ? THAT IS MORE TYPICAL . SEE YOU MONDAY . GOOD LUCK TRADING .
JUNE 24 THE DECLINE FROM THE JUNE 21 HIGH CAN BE COUNTED AS 5 3 WAVE MOVES . IF THIS IS TRUE THEN THE DOW WILL GO BACK UP AND BREAK ABOVE THE JUNE HIGH'S . AN IMPULSIVE 5 WAVE DECLINE SHOULD SUBDIVIDE WITH 5 WAVE SUB WAVES THE CHART SHOWN BELOW IS HOW AN IDEALIZED WAVE SHOULD LOOK IF IT IS BECOMING AN IMPULSE. BASED ON HOW THE MARKET REACTED INTO THE CLOSE TODAY MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WAS A "B" WAVE LOW WITH IN A LARGER WAVE IV. WAVE C OF AN EXPANDED FLAT TENDS TO BE 1.618 TIMES WAVE A . THIS TARGETS THE 10285 AREA INTO THE CLOSE TOMORROW ( ACTUALLY 30 MINUTES BEFORE THE CLOSE ) THE 10302-10328 PRICE RANGE WOULD HAVE TO STOP THE MARKET DEAD IN IT'S TRACKS IF THE 10285 LEVEL FAILS TO HOLD AS RESISTANCE . THE TIME LINE NOTED EARLIER TODAY IS STILL IN EFFECT . A LARGE GAP UP IN THE MORNING WOULD BE ALLOWED FOR YET AS I SEE IT NEXT WEEKS PRICE ACTION MUST STILL BE DOWN .MINOR WAVE II WAS SIMPLE ,USING THE GUIDELINE FOR ALTERNATION A COMPLEX WAVE IV SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR . BOTTOM LINE : IM ALLOWING FOR A 4TH WAVE RALLY ON FRIDAY AND IF IT RUNS UP INTO THE CLOSE TO SHAKE OUT THE SHORTS AND RELIEVE THE SHORT TERM OVERSOLD READING SO BE IT . MY INTENSION IS TO REMAIN BEARISH AND FOR THE MOST PART LEAVE MY COMPUTER OFF AND IGNORE THE MARKET ON FRIDAY . LASTLY IF WE DO SEE A RALLY FROM A LOW NEAR THE OPEN IT SHOULD UNFOLD IN 5 WAVES TO THE UPSIDE TO COMPLETE WAVE C . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY GOOD LUCK TRADING
JUNE 24 SEE WAVE COUNT BELOW . EXPECT SURPRISES TO THE DOWNSIDE . SHORT TERM WAVE COUNT BELOW THIS CHART
THE IS JUST A SHORT TERM WAVE COUNT ON THE DOW 30 MINUTE CHART IS IN A MINOR WAVE IV WITH IN WAVE 3 DOWN . THERE IS A DOUBLE TIME LINE INTO THE OPEN/FIRST 30 MINUTES FRIDAY THE 10302-10328 IS THE IDEALIZED MINOR WAVE 4 LEVEL TO KEEP AN EYE ON .I HAVE NO INTENSIONS OF TRADING THIS BOUNCE AND INTEND TO KEEP A LONGER TERM BEARISH BIAS ON THE MARKET. SEE YOU SUNDAY .
JUNE 23 TODAY'S HIGH CAN BE CONSIDERED POINT 27 YET MY GUT TELLS ME WE MAY RUN HIGHER TOWARDS KEY RESISTANCE AT 10438.78. THAT SAID I TOOK A BEARISH STANCE ON THE MARKET TODAY . MY REASONING IS IM LOOKING AT A 60 MINUTE CHART AND POINT 27 IS TYPICALLY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK . THE WEEKLY LOW AT 10186.21 IS NOW KEY SUPPORT AND THE POINT 17 HIGH AT 10438.78 IS NOW KEY RESISTANCE . THE 14 HOUR RSI IS STILL SOMEWHAT OVERSOLD WHICH LEAVES ROOM FOR A LARGER BOUNCE .( ALSO TIMING MODEL HIGH DUE FRIDAY ) BOTTOM LINE : THE PATTERN BASED ON PRICE IS BEARISH UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE ALL SURPRISES SHOULD BE TO THE DOWNSIDE. BREAKING BELOW 10186.21 TARGETS THE MAY LOWS BREAKING ABOVE 10438.78 TARGETS A TEST OF THE HIGH NEAR 10600. IM GOING TO REMAIN BEARISH INTO NOVEMBER 2010 EVEN THOUGH I CAN ALLOW FOR THIS MARKET TO HOLD UP INTO AUGUST . THE NEXT CYCLE LOW IS DUE JULY 2ND ( 2 YR SUB CYCLE )TO JULY 12TH ( TIMING MODEL ABOVE ) NEXT WEEKS ACTION MUST BE BEARISH TO CONFIRM THIS PATTERN. GOOD LUCK TRADING NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY
JUNE 22 WITH TODAY'S BREAK DOWN I AM JUST GOING TO KEEP THIS UPDATE SIMPLE . THE DOW BROKEN BELOW SUPPORT AT 10319.22 . THIS TELLS ME POINT 23 IS IN PLACE THE DOW SHOULD BOUNCE TOMORROW INTO THE 4TH HOUR OF THE DAY INTO POINT 27 AND THEN HEAD LOWER TOWARDS 10186.21 . THE ENTIRE FORMATION FROM JUNE 15TH SHOULD RESEMBLE A HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN. WITHOUT GETTING TO FANCY THE 10350-10400 AREA WILL BECOME RESISTANCE GOING FORWARD. BOTTOM LINE : THE DOW LOOKS TO HAVE COMPLETED AN HOURLY 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ACCORDING TO THE GUIDELINES OF THIS PATTERN ,ONCE POINT 23 IS IN PLACE YOU LOOK FOR A MOVEMENT BACK TO POINT 10 . THIS IMPLIES WE ARE GOING BACK TO 9757.55 ON THE DOW. MOST LIKELY INTO THE NEXT CYCLE LOW WHICH IS DUE BETWEEN JULY 2ND - 12TH.
JUNE 21 THE BASIC HOURLY 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN IS TRACING OUT AS EXPECTED TODAY'S LOW SHOULD BE CONSIDERED POINT 22 . 10608 10631 IS NOW RESISTANCE TO THIS PATTERN AND 10319.22 IS KEY SUPPORT . THE KEY TIMELINE FOR WEDNESDAY IS THE 4TH HOUR OF TRADING . I HAVE A COUPLE HOURS WORK ON THE INTERNALS OF THIS MARKET AND I WILL POST IT ALL IN TUESDAYS UPDATE . BOTTOM LINE : THIS MARKET SHOULD BE PUTTING IN AN IMPORTANT TOP YET THERE IS A COUPLE CYCLES THAT ARE TURNING UP WHICH ARE A CONCERN BECAUSE IT MAKES THE CASE FOR A FURTHER EXTENSION TO THE UPSIDE . WEDNESDAY JUNE 23RD 4 HOURS FROM THE OPEN IS THE KEY TIME WINDOW . NARROWING IT DOWN IT IS THE TIME OF 10:15-10:30 PDT( 1:15-1:30 EDT ) NOTE: TIMING MODEL IS CALLING FOR A HIGH ON FRIDAY JUNE 25. ( NEXT WEEK MUST BE A DOWN WEEK) GOOD LUCK TRADING
JUNE 17 I HAVE RESCALED THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL ABOVE AND WHILE IT STILL POINTS HIGHER INTO EARLY AUGUST THERE ARE SOME PATTERNS THAT ARGUE OTHERWISE . THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH IS JUNE 25TH YET AS NOTED BELOW WE ARE ENTERING A POTENTIAL PATTERN COMPLETION NOW . THERE IS A SMALL DEGREE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN TRACING OUT FROM THE LOWS ON MAY 25TH . THIS PATTERN CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED AN A B C RALLY . THIS PLACES KEY SUPPORT AT 10319.22 WHICH SHOULD NOT BE BROKEN IN FRIDAYS TRADING ACTION . POINT 21 WOULD PEAK NEAR THE OPEN MONDAY IF IT DOESN'T DO SO NEAR THE CLOSE ON FRIDAY . POINT 23 WOULD PEAK LATE TUESDAY OR MID WEDNESDAY . ONCE POINT 23 IS IN PLACE THE DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE BECOMES 9800 IN THE DOW .LARGER WAVE COUNT BELOW .
PUTTING TOGETHER THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ON THE 60 MINUTE CHART ABOVE AND BLENDING IT WITH THE DAILY WAVE COUNT BELOW I WOULD CONCLUDE THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE A SERIES OF WAVE 1'S AND 2'S . I MENTIONED BEFORE THAT IF THIS WAS A LEADING DIAGONAL PATTERN THEN WAVE 2 SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED .THE .382 TIME RETRACEMENT CALLS FOR A PEAK IN WAVE 2 BY WEDNESDAY . THIS COULD BE CONSIDERED WAVE A USING ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY ALONE YET WHEN WE ALSO BLEND THE 60 MINUTES 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN WITH IN THIS WE CAN MAKE THE CASE THAT WAVE 2 IS INDEED PEAKING . BOTTOM LINE : I HAVE REPEATEDLY MADE THE CASE FOR A PEAK IN LATE JULY EARLY AUGUST AND IF THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CASE THEN THIS CHART BELOW SHOULD BE FOR THE MOST PART SPOT ON . YET THE LARGER CYCLES ARE TURNING DOWN WITH ONLY THE SMALLER SHORTER TERM CYCLES POINTING HIGHER . IS THIS ONLY WAVE A OF A LARGER ABC PATTERN ??? OR THE COMPLETION OF WAVE 2 ALONG WITH THE COMPLETION OF THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ?? IT IS OF MY OPINION THAT TAKING A BEARISH STANCE FROM THE JUNE 23 - 25TH ( SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH ) WILL BE JUSTIFIED . ( SEE RISK OF BEING BEARISH BELOW )
GIVEN THE OVERSOLD READINGS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN I WANT TO UPDATE MY LARGER TREND PATTERN THAT I HAVE BEEN MENTIONING EARLIER . THIS IMPLIES WE ARE IN A LARGER PATTERN THAT RUNS INTO JULY/AUGUST . BOTTOM LINE: THE MARKET IS GIVING MIXED MESSAGES , ON THE ONE HAND IT IS OVERSOLD AND ON THE OTHER HAND THE WAVE COUNT CAN BE CONSIDERED BEARISH . SO FAR THIS OVERALL TREND MODEL HAS NOT FAILED . I WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH BOTH THE BULLISH AND BEARISH SET UPS AS THEY COME YET MY LARGER BIAS IS THAT THIS YEAR IS A TOPPING YEAR AND WE SHOULD SEE LOWER PRICES INTO YEAR END FROM WHERE WE ARE TODAY . THE MORE BEARISH CASE BELOW THIS ALSO BLENDS WELL ( SEE BELOW )
DOW MONTHLY A MOVE ABOVE 10500 WHICH FAILS TO MAKE NEW HIGHS ABOVE THE ARIL 2010 HIGHS AND THEN REVERSES BACK DOWN AND BREAKS BELOW THE NOV 2009 LOW TARGETS 8000 ON THE DOW BY NOVEMBER 2010
JUNE 14 THINGS TO THINK ABOUT . ILL START WITH THE BOTTOMING PROCESS WHICH LASTED FROM 1970 TO 1982 THIS TIME FRAME LASTED FROM INITIAL LOW TO FINAL LOW ( BASED ON TIME ) MAY 1970 TO AUG 1982 ,12 YEARS 3 MONTHS NARROWING RANGE
REMEMBER THE ASIAN CRISES BACK IN 1998 ?? MAY 1998 TO AUGUST 2010 = 12 YEARS 3 MONTHS EXPANDING RANGE STRONG RESISTANCE AT 10673 WOULD HAVE TO BE BROKEN TO TURN THIS CHART UP. MY BIAS IS TO TURN BEARISH FROM 10495 UP TO 10620. REGARDLESS OF TIMING . THERE ARE SEVERAL CYCLE LOWS DUE GOING FORWARD. OCT 2010 INTO NOV 2 2010 , THEN MARCH 2011 INTO MAY 2011 . THEN A BOUNCE THEN MORE LOWS DUE FROM MID 2012 INTO AND SURROUNDING THE ELECTIONS IN NOV 2012 BOTTOM LINE : I AM NOT GOING TO PUT TO MUCH FOCUS ON THE OVERSOLD READINGS FROM AUGUST 2010 INTO SEPT 2010 SHOULD BE A STEEP DECLINE SIMILAR TO THE DECLINE IN MAY ( PROBABLY WAVE 3 TOWARDS 9100-8000) FOR OPTIONS TRADING I WOULD PLACE TRADES ACROSS THE TIME CYCLE LOWS , HENCE SEPT 2010 PUTS , NOV 2010 PUTS AND MARCH 2011 PUTS AND MAY 2011 PUTS .THE FOCUS ON THE FURTHER TIME FRAMES , NOV 2010-MAY 2011 WOULD BE FURTHER OUT OF THE MONEY , DOW 9500 ROUGHLY IS WHERE I LOOK FOR THE FURTHER OUT STRIKES WITH THE DOW AT OR ABOVE 10500 . LOOK TO EXIT FROM 9110 IN SEPT TO 8000 SURROUNDING OCT NOV 2010. THE MARCH 2011 MAY 2011 PUTS SHOULD BE PURCHASED WITH THE DOW ABOVE 10500 IN EARLY TO MID JULY ( ROUGH TIME / PRICE FIGURES )
LOOKING AT THE LARGER TREND OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS AND TAKING A BEARISH VIEW THIS IS WHAT I SEE BASED ON BOTH TIMING AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE ARE IN A LARGER BEAR MARKET. UNTIL WE GET INTO THE NOV 2012 TIME FRAME IT IS VERY EARLY TO TAKE SUCH A BEARISH VIEW . CONSIDER IT A GUIDE
ODDBALL CYCLES TO CONSIDER 93 YEARS UP IN 5 COMPLETED WAVES
THESE CYCLES ARE PRESENTLY BOTTOMING YET THEY ARE NOT BASED ON THE STOCK MARKET AT ALL. THE CORRELATION THOUGH IS WORTH FOLLOWING . THIS BEGINS IN THE 1700'S AND IS A YEAR CHART . 2009 IS THE LAST ENTRY. FROM 2009 FORWARD IS AN ESTIMATE ONLY THE DECLINE FROM 2000 TO 2009 IS ACTING VERY SIMILAR AS THE CYCLE FROM 1789 TO 1817, IF IM WRONG ABOUT THE CYCLE LOW ALREADY BOTTOMED IN JULY 2009 THEN THIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO 2028 . BOTTOM LINE REGARDLESS OF MY THOUGHTS THE 2000 PEAK IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 1789 PEAK . HENCE WE ARE LIVING IN A VERY LONG TERM DOWN CYCLE . 286 YEAR PATTERN COMPLETION IN THE YEAR 2000
JUNE 10 2010 LEADING DIAGONAL PATTERNS . THIS IS SOMETHING I WOULD NORMALLY CALL AN A B C DECLINE OR SOMETHING SHOWING 3 WAVES . BASICALLY I DON'T TRUST OVERLAPS . THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE ARE WE IN THE LARGER WAVE COUNT ?? TOP OF WAVE 2 AND NEW BEAR MARKET DECLINE TO NEW LOWS ? BELOW 6600 DOW. TOP OF PRIMARY A OF A LARGER A B C UPWARD MOVE ? WHAT EVER IT IS IT IS STARTING NOW . IN FACT IT ALREADY BEGAN.( OBVIOUSLY ) WHEN DO HOME SALES NUMBERS USUALLY PEAK ? ( AUG SEPT EACH YEAR ) PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER I HAVE TO CONSIDER THIS A LEADING DIAGONAL WAVE 1 OR A DOWN. IF THIS COUNT IS VALID THEN THE REACTIONARY HIGH ( B ) OR ( 2 ) SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE TIME FRAMES NOTED BASED ON THE FIBONACCI RATIO'S . 30 TRADE DAYS DOWN *.382= 11.46 DAYS ( COUNTED FROM THE LOW ) THEN .786 AND TYPICALLY WAVE 2'S TEND TO TURN NEAR THE 2.382 ? 30 *1.382=41.46 TRADE DAYS . THE STRONGEST MOVE IS USUALLY THE MOVE FROM THE LOW INTO THE INITIAL .382 TIME FRAME. LABELED A . WAVE B IS TOUGH TO CALL YET WAVE C MANY TIMES FALLS INTO THE 1.786 OR 2.382 TIME FRAME. BOTTOM LINE : WAVE 2 UP COULD LAST AS SHORT AS 11 TRADING DAYS TO AS LONG AS 41 TRADING DAYS . THE BIAS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED , A WAVE 2 FOLLOWING A LEADING DIAGONAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED YET SHOULD COVER ROUGHLY A .618 RETRACEMENT OF WAVE 1. THIS PLACES RESISTANCE AT 10694. A MOVE TO 10518 IS AN EXTREME TARGET INTO THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH ON JUNE 25TH . ILL HAVE TO REASSESS THE MARKET FOLLOWING THE TURN DATE. ILL ADD LATER THE CHARACTERS OF A LEADING DIAGONAL PATTERN .
JUNE 10 HOW THE MARKET REACTED THE LAST TIME IT HAD A RALLY FROM LOW TO HIGH IN THIS SAME DURATION . RED IS HISTORICAL COMPARISON TO TODAY . THE MONTH OF JUNE IS NOT OVER YET . GOING TO TAKE TODAY TO WORK ON BEARISH CYCLES INTO MAY 2011 . GOOD LUCK TRADING
JUNE 8 2010 SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IS CALLING FOR A LOW . I WILL BE RE SCALING IT OVER THE COMING DAYS . IM STILL GOING TO GIVE THIS MARKET THE BULLISH VIEW OVER THE COMING WEEKS. HOWEVER I NOW HAVE MY LONGER TERM CYCLES TURNING DOWN AND MY SHORTER TERM CYCLES POINTING HIGHER . SO FAR THE DOW HAS BEEN UN ABLE TO BREAK BELOW ITS NOVEMBER 2009 LOWS WHICH IS THE ONLY REASON IM KEEPING THE BULLISH BIAS. THE RECENT LOWS REALLY NEED TO HOLD FROM HERE ON OUT . POINTS 10 11 12 13 AND 14 SHOULD NOW BE IN PLACE . POINT 15 SHOULD ACT MUCH THE SAME AS A 3RD WAVE OR A C WAVE. THIS CALLS FOR A STRONGER RALLY TO UNFOLD . HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM CHART SHOWN BELOW SHOULD BE CONSIDERED BEARISH . ( SEE CHART BELOW THIS )
THE INVERTED 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COMPLETE . I WILL NOTE THE SLOW STOCHASTICS ON THIS CHART STILL SHOULD MAKE ONE MORE CROSS ( THE BLUE LINE COMING BACK ABOVE THE RED LING AND THEN TURN DOWN) THIS LEAVES THE TECHNICAL BACK DROP ROOM FOR A NEW HIGH ( BUT I DOUBT IT WILL HAPPEN NOW ) THERE IS SEVERAL TIME LINES STACKING UP IN JULY / AUGUST AND I HAVE A HARD TIME LETTING GO OF THESE AS A TOP ( SOMETIMES ITS EASIER TO JUST BLINDLY IGNORE TIME HOW EVER IT JUST ISN'T SOMETHING I DO . BOTTOM LINE : IM STILL KEEPING MY SHORTER TERM BULLISH BIAS ,YET LONGER TERM MY WORK ALL POINTS DOWN WHICH IMPLIES I NOW TAKE A LONGER TERM BEARISH BIAS FROM HERE ON OUT INTO MAY 2011 AT A MINIMUM . 11500-11700 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE WHICH LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR A COUNTER TREND BOUNCE . IF THE MARKET GETS CRAZY ? 11651-12200 WOULD BE THE STRETCH TO THE UPSIDE AND I'D SHORT IT AGGRESSIVELY . ILL BE DRIVING HOME TONIGHT . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE FRIDAY BEFORE THE OPEN . GOOD LUCK TRADING
JUNE 4 WE HAVE A POTENTIAL MINOR 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN TRACING OUT . NEXT WEEKS PRICE ACTION WILL NEED TO GIVE THIS MARKET A BULLISH TONE TO IT . ILL BE BACK HOME SOMETIME TUESDAY . I WILL GO INTO MORE DETAILS THEN FOR NOW IT IS MY OPINION THAT AS BEARISH AS THIS MARKET LOOKS WE ARE GOING TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHORT COVERING INTO FUTURES AND OPTIONS EXPIRATION . GOOD LUCK TRADING
MAY 30 THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL AND I WILL BE OUT OF TOUCH , I WILL DO MY BEST TO UPDATE THIS PAGE BY WEDNESDAY JUNE 2ND YET MY WORK SCHEDULE WILL BE FULL . I WILL BE BACK HOME AND ABLE TO UPDATE THIS PAGE MORE FREQUENTLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUNE 5TH 10TH . SO TODAY'S UPDATE IS MORE ABOUT THE CYCLES AND THE LARGER PICTURE IM LOOKING AT. GOOD LUCK TRADING HERE IS MY CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS . THE 2 YEAR SUB CYCLE IS CALLING FOR A LOW JUNE 1ST. TUESDAY IS JUNE 1ST . IF THE MARKET WAS TO TURN UPWARDS ON TUESDAY OR EVEN CLOSE DOWN ON THE DAY IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO CALL THE MARKET . WEDNESDAY THOUGH IF THE MARKET BEGINS TO TURN UP THEN IT CAN BE SAID THAT THE 2 YR SUB CYCLE LOW IS IN PLACE . THE MOVEMENT FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 10TH SHOULD BE VERY STRONG . IF THIS MARKET IS GOING TO TURN UP STRONG THEN THAT WILL BE BECAUSE OF THIS 2 YEAR SUB CYCLE . THIS IS GOING TO BE THE KEY CYCLE FOR ME . BOTTOM LINE : I FOCUS MORE ON TIMING THEN ANYTHING ELSE AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A DIFFICULT CALL FOR TUESDAY MARKET . SOMETIMES IT IS BEST TO LET THE PICTURE CLEAR UP BEFORE TAKING A STAND AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR ME IM JUST GOING TO LET THE MARKET PROVE ITSELF . NEXT CHART BELOW IS WHAT IM EXPECTING YET AS NOTED ABOVE THIS WILL BE TRICKY .
I HAVE MENTIONED THE THREE PEAKS DOMED HOUSE MANY TIMES I WANT TO SHOW THE OVERLAY SINCE JAN 14TH 2010 IN COMPARISON TO 1956 . COMPARISON CHARTS SHOULD BE LOOKED AT WITH MORE THEN A LITTLE SKEPTICISM . HOWEVER THIS AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED FITS MY CYCLES TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT I HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN MIND OVER THE COMING MONTHS . TAKE THE TIME TO LOOK AT THE COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE CYCLES ABOVE DATES AND THIS OVERLAY BELOW . BOTTOM LINE : THIS ANALYSIS WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY DEAD ON EXACTLY ACCURATE OR IT WILL BE EXACTLY 180 DEGREES OPPOSITE. EITHER WAY WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF SEEING A VERY POWERFUL MOVE . MY BIAS IS THAT WITH EVERYONE UNIVERSALLY BEARISH ,THE TECHNICAL SIDE OF THE MARKET STILL OVERSOLD ,CYCLES CALLING FOR A LOW AND A BULLISH PATTERN INTO EARLY AUGUST AND TIME LINES CALLING FOR HIGH'S INTO EARLY AUGUST THAT WE SHOULD SEE THE MARKET RISE . ( THERE IS A HUGE RISK AT STAKE OVER THE COMING WEEK AS TO THE DIRECTIONAL BIAS OF THIS MARKET ) TO ADD TO THIS ,PLEASE NOTE THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE . ALSO NOTE OSCILLATOR BELOW THIS CHART WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE MARKET WHEN THIS OSCILLATOR HAS REACHED THESE LOWER LEVELS IN THE PAST ??? NOT EVERYTHING ALWAYS WORKS AS PLANNED , YET THE ODDS ARE STACKED IN FAVOR OF A RUN UPWARDS AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED , THAT SAID THE MARKET HAS YET TO PROVE ITSELF .
MAY 27 CHART UPDATED AFTER THE CLOSE. THE TIME LINES FOR TOMORROW MORNING ARE BOTH CALLING FOR A HIGH . IM UN CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT . THE WAVE COUNT DOMING OUT OF TODAY'S SWING LOW IS A SERIES OF 1'S AND 2'S WE WILL NEED TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT FOLLOW THROUGH TO THE UPSIDE TOMORROW TO COMPLETE WAVES 3 4 and 5 . THERE IS A POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN WHICH WOULD CALL FOR A SWING HIGH NEAR 10443. TODAY THE DOW BASICALLY SATISFIED ITS MINIMUM TARGET AT 10268. BOTTOM LINE HERE : IM STICKING TO MY BULLISH BIAS YET AS I NOTED YESTERDAY I STILL HAVE A FEW CONCERNS ABOUT THIS MARKET . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY. I WANT TO TOUCH ON SOMETHING ELSE THOUGH .
THIS MAY SOUND ODD BUT TODAY'S MOVE AS GREAT AS IT WAS POINT WISE HAS STILL NOT TURNED TRADERS MINDS TO A BULLISH . SINCE MAY 24TH WE HAVE BEEN SEEING CONSECUTIVE 30 MIN BARS TRADING IN A RANGE . BASICALLY WHAT I DO IS THIS . IF THE 30 MIN BAR ON THE DOW IS UP I PUT PLUS 1 IN THE COLUMN IF THE 30 MIN BAR IS DOWN I PUT MINUS 1 . THIS CHART SHOWS THE BALANCE OF 30 MIN UP BARS VERSUS DOWN BARS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ILL NOTE I USE A 24 HOUR CHART TO DO THIS SO THERE IS AN ADDED BAR FOR THE CLOSE EACH DAY. MY POINT IS THIS , IF THIS MARKET IS GOING TO TURN PEOPLES MINDS AROUND THEN THIS CHART SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS AND IN ORDER TO DO SO WE WILL NEED TO SEE MORE THEN 4 OR 5 CONSECUTIVE UP 30 MINUTE BARS IN THE TRADING DAY . ON THE OTHER HAND WHAT IF THE DOW IS DOWN FOR THE FIRST 30 MINUTES TOMORROW AND THIS SIDEWAYS TREND IS TO CONTINUE ???? WHERE DO YOU THINK THE MARKET WOULD GO ???
TO GIVE YOU SOME MORE PERSPECTIVE ON THIS CHART ILL SHOW YOU THE TREND SINCE MARCH
MAY 27 VERY SHORT TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A SERIES OF 1'S AND 2'S ON A 1 MINUTE DOW CHART IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN THE DOW SHOULD NOT BREAK BELOW 10148.65 BETWEEN THE TIME FRAME OF 1047-1117 PST . THESE SHORT TERM CHARTS CAN BE MISLEADING YET IF WE JUST SAW A MINOR WAVE 1 OF A MORE POWERFUL WAVE 3 THEN WAVE 2 WOULD BOTTOM NEAR 10161-10159 ( EXTREME LOW ) IN THE TIME FRAMES NOTED . A BREAK BELOW 10148.65 INVALIDATES THE WAVE COUNT . IN WHICH CASE THE 10101.11-10094.99 LEVEL BECOMES THE NEXT LOWER SUPPORT
HERE IS AN UPDATED VIEW OF YESTERDAYS CHART WITH THE SWINGS NOTED A TIME LINE , NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE WANT IT TO BE A HIGH OR A LOW IS A TIME LINE THIS PRESENT ONE AS THE MARKET HAS UNFOLDED AND GIVEN ME MORE TO THINK ABOUT . THERE IS NOW A SERIES OF 4 INTO THIS 1100 TIME LINE . THE 1 MINUTE CHART ABOVE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS TO HOW THIS MARKET MOVES COMING OUT OF THIS . A BREAK BACK TO A NEW HIGH WOULD BE EXTREMELY BULLISH INTO THE CLOSE . BOTTOM LINE: SPECULATING IS JUST THAT , IT IS ONLY WHEN THE MARKET PROVES THE FORECAST CORRECTLY THAT IT IS VALIDATED . THE NEXT 15 MINUTES OR SO WILL BE IMPORTANT . LOWER SUPPORT IS NOW BEING RAISED TO 10035.60
MAY 26 I HAVE A FEW WORRIES ABOUT THIS MARKET , TODAY'S DECLINE FROM THE MORNINGS HIGH'S WERE A BIT DEEPER THEN I WAS ANTICIPATING EVEN THE THOUGH THE TOP TO TOP COUNT I SHOWED DID WARN OF A HIGH NEAR THE OPEN . I HAVE NOTED ALL OF THE MAIN TURNS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING . WHAT I HAVE DRAWN OUT ON THIS CHART IS THE KEY TURNS BASED ON TOP TO TOP COUNTS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED DIRECTION COMING OUT OF THESE TURN TIMES . THIS IS A 10 MINUTE CHART SO I WOULD ALLOW 10 MINUTES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TIMES POSTED . THEY KEY IN TERMS OF PRICE WILL BE IF THE DOW CAN TOUCH THE 10094.99 LEVEL WITH IN THE FIRST 1 1/2 HOURS OF TRADING . ALSO WE WILL NEED TO SEE SOME KIND OF STRENGTH NEAR THE OPEN EVEN IF WEAK AN UP OPEN WOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE FOR THE BULLISH CASE . I SAY THIS BECAUSE THE LOWS OF THE DAY CAME IN RIGHT ON A DOUBLE TIME LINE WHICH IS IMPORTANT . HERE IS THE DILEMMA. WE HAVE A SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH DUE ON THURSDAY AND EVEN LOOKING AT THIS FROM A SHORT TERM BULLISH PERSPECTIVE THE EARLY FRIDAY HIGH ( ASSUMING IT FOLLOWS THE PLAN AND IS A HIGH ) WOULD THEN CALL FOR A DOWN TURN INTO JUNE 6TH JUNE 11 TH . BOTTOM LINE : I THINK I JUMPED THE GUN TURNING BULLISH ON YESTERDAYS OPEN . THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD AND I WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A BOUNCE INTO FRIDAY YET WE HAVE A 2 YR SUB CYCLE HIGH DUE AS WELL AS A SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH DUE IN THE NEXT 2 TRADING DAYS ( SHORT TERM THE 27TH AND 2 YR SUB CYCLE HIGH DUE 28TH ) BOTH CYCLES CALL FOR A LOW BETWEEN JUNE 6TH TO JUNE 11TH BEFORE AN UPTURN SHOULD BRING A STRONGER RALLY . IF THIS MARKET IS GOING TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL HEAD TO THE UPSIDE IT HAS 2 TRADING DAYS TO GET THERE . SUPPORT IS 9863 RESISTANCE IS 10035 . IF THIS IS BULLISH THEN TODAY'S SWING LOW AT 9953 REALLY SHOULD HOLD AND WE SHOULD SEE 10094.99 TOUCHED WITH IN THE FIRST 1/2 HOURS TOMORROW . A LARGER THRUST WOULD TAKE THE MARKET UP TOWARDS 10268.33 YET IF WE THINK ABOUT THE CONTEXT OF WHERE WE SIT CYCLE WISE , IT WOULD REALLY TAKE A STRONGER THRUST UP TOWARDS 10394 TO GIVE THE MARKET SOME CUSHION TO RIDE THROUGH THE NEXT SHORT TERM BEARISH CYCLE ( IN OTHER WORDS GETTING TO 10268.33 WOULD NOT CONVINCE ME WE SAW THE LOW ) NEXT UPDATE WILL BE POSTED 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES FROM THE OPEN . THAT IS 15 MINUTES BEFORE THE CYCLE LOW SHOWN ON THIS CHART . GOOD LUCK TRADING .
MAY 25 TODAY'S REVERSAL TO THE UPSIDE IS CONSTRUCTIVE FOR A FURTHER RALLY. WE SHOULD SEE A MOVE UP TO AT THE LEAST YESTERDAYS HIGHS AT 1088.75 BASIS THE JUNE EMINI CONTRACT , THIS LEVEL SHOULD BE 1089-1090 IN THE SPX HOW EVER WE SHOULD ALSO BE THINKING ABOUT THE LAST REACTION UPWARDS FROM THESE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS A .382 PRICE RETRACEMENT ALONG WITH A .382 TIME RETRACEMENT . THIS SHOULD BRING A BULLISH TONE TO THE MARKET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL AS INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A BREAK OUT ABOVE 1105 UP TOWARDS THE 1150 AREA . A COUPLE NOTES ON TOP TO TOP COUNTS BELOW .
SOMETHING INTERESTING WE SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO DURING THE DAY AS WE WATCH THE MARKETS IS A SIMPLE TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM COUNT AS WELL AS A LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT. THE KEY HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOLLOWING THE COUNT . NOTE THIS MORNINGS TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM COUNT . EACH WERE 24 5 MINUTE BARS APART . THE LAST TIME LINE HIT RIGHT ON THE CLOSE . SO THE COUNT BECOMES TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM TO TOP . HAVING FOLLOWED THIS DURING THE DAY YOU WOULD HAVE EXPECTED THIS MARKET TO CLOSE NEAR THE HIGH . NOW LETS LOOK AT A DAILY CHART .
THIS IS THE $GDOW WITH A ANOTHER TOP TO TOP COUNT . TAKE NOTE OF THE QUESTIONS POSTED ON THIS CHART . I DON'T HAVE THE TIME TO FILL IN THE BLANKS YET I HAVE TAKEN THE TIME TO SHOW YOU THE FORMULA . WHEN THIS STUFF WORKS IT IS ALWAYS AMAZING . BOTTOM LINE : IF WE SAW THE BOTTOM OF THE DECLINE THEN TODAY'S LOWS ABSOLUTELY MUST NOT BE BROKEN PERIOD . AN ACCELERATION TO THE UPSIDE IS VERY POSSIBLE YET I WOULD NOT BET THE FARM ON IT , I WOULD THOUGH ACCEPT IT IF IT COMES OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEK . LASTLY , WEATHER OR NOT THIS 3 PEAKS COUNT IS VALID OR NOT REMAINS TO BE SEEN , THAT IS THE EXTREME BULLISH LABELING . I DON'T SEE THIS TYPE OF LABELING ON THE DOW BUT IM NOT GOING TO IGNORE IT HERE IF THIS MARKET BEGINS TO MAKE HUGE MOVES UPWARDS . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW AFTER THE CLOSE ,UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING OUT OF SYNC IN THE OVERNIGHT FUTURES IN THE EARLY MORNING.
MAY 25 WE NOW HAVE 5 WAVES DOWN FROM THE 1175 HIGH ON THE EMINI FUTURES CONTRACT . AT MINIMUM WE SHOULD SEE A COUNTER TREND BOUNCE BACK UP TO YESTERDAYS HIGH'S WHICH IS THE PREVIOUS 4 TH WAVE OF 1 LESSER DEGREE AND ALSO A .382 PRICE RETRACEMENT I HAVE PLACED MULTIPLE BUY ORDERS AT VARIES PRICES ON THE JUNE CALL OPTIONS FOR THE OPEN . DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THESE OPTIONS DECLINE ON THE OPEN I AM NOT SURE WHICH BATCH ILL GET FILLED ON OR WEATHER I GET THEM ALL .
LOOKING AT THE EMINI FUTURES FROM THE TOP WE NOW HAVE AN A B C DECLINE IN PLACE WITH WAVE C FALLING A BIT SHORT . BOTH DECLINES NOW ARE JUST ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF TIME . A SNAP BACK RALLY SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE WAVE A LOW WOULD BRING THIS INDEX BACK TO THE 1150 AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY .
MAY 24 NEXT UPDATE WILL BE 1/2 HOUR BEFORE THE OPEN TOMORROW THE RISK OF A FURTHER DECLINE IS HERE YET AS NOTED BELOW THE 1060 PRICE AREA IS IMPORTANT SUPPORT NEAR TOMORROWS OPEN RATHER THEN LAY OUT THE SCENARIO'S IM GOING TO SEE HOW THE FUTURES TRADE OVERNIGHT AND THEN POST .
MAY 24 THE OPEN LOOKS TO BE UGLY THIS MORNING . SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET SITS AT 1060.50 - 1059.07 BASIS THE JUNE E MINI FUTURES CONTRACT A REVERSAL BACK THE UPSIDE FROM THERE WOULD HAVE TO SNAP BACK TOWARDS 1080 FAIRLY QUICKLY TO GIVE THIS MINI 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN VALIDITY . SO WATCH THE OPEN CLOSELY .
MAY 23 IM BEGINNING WITH THE INTERNALS OF THE MARKET TODAY ON FRIDAYS TRADING SESSION THE RATIO OF ADVANCERS TO DECLINERS TRACED OUT A 5 WAVE MOVEMENT TO THE UPSIDE . IN THE COMING DAYS IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THIS RATIO TO EXCEED A 5 TO 1 RATIO . IN DOING THIS IT WILL BE A GOOD SIGN THAT WE SAW A LOW TAKE PLACE .
10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE DESPITE THE LOWER LOWS IN THE INDEXES LAST WEEK THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE MADE A HIGHER LOW .THIS IS CONSIDERED BULLISH DIVERGENCE. HENCE NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO SEE SOME FOLLOW THROUGH TO THE UPSIDE.
10 DAY TRIN THE 10 DAY TRIN WORKS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION AS THE MARKET . ON MAY 20 IT REACHED AN EXTREME OVERSOLD READING OF 1.658 . THIS READING IS RARE BUT DOES GET HIT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE SHOWING BULLISH DIVERGENCE AS THIS INDICATOR BEGINS TO TURN DOWN ARGUES THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE A POWERFUL RALLY IN THE COMING DAYS .
10 WEEK UP VOLUME MINUS DOWN VOLUME NOTICE THE DATES ON THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE . MAY 30 2005,JAN 1 2007 ,JULY 29 2008,MARCH 23 2009,NOV 23 2009,MARCH 22 2010,MAY 10 2010. THIS IS WHERE THE STOCHASTIC REACHED A LOW POINT PRIOR TO TURNING BACK UP. NOW LETS CHECK THAT AGAINST THE MARKET ALSO I SHOULD NOTE THE 10 WEEK UP VOLUME MINUS DOWN VOLUME MADE A NEW LOW LAST WEEK WHICH WAS LOWER THEN ANY LOW OVER THE PAST 14 YEARS .
DOW DAILY CHART . THE TURN ON MAY 30 2005 BROUGHT AN IMMEDIATE 2 WEEK RALLY ,THE TURN ON JAN 1 2007 ALSO BROUGHT AN IMMEDIATE UPWARD MOVE LASTING 2 WEEKS YET IN TOTAL THE MOVE LASTED 6 WEEKS TO THE UPSIDE
JULY 28 2008 THE MOVE LASTED 1 WEEK TO THE UPSIDE WHICH WAS ALSO PART OF A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT LASTING 7 WEEKS BEFORE THE MARKET COLLAPSED MARCH 23 2009 AN INITIAL 3 WEEK CONTINUATION RALLY FOLLOWED YET THE MOVEMENT EXTENDED AND LASTED A TOTAL OF 11 WEEKS . NOV 23 2009 AN INITIAL 2 WEEK RALLY WHICH EXTENDED FOR A TOTAL OF 6 WEEKS MARCH 22 2010 A 4 WEEK RALLY FOLLOWED TO THE PRESENT TOP. MAY 10 2010 FAILURE . BOTTOM LINE : OUT OF 7 SET UPS 6 WORKED AND SO FAR THE 7TH HAS NOT . THIS GIVES A PERCENT SUCCESS FAILURE RATE OF 85.7 PERCENT . A BREAK ABOVE 10620 ON THE DOW WOULD IMPLY THE SIGNAL WAS 1 WEEK OFF.
WHY EARLY AUGUST 2010 FOR A PEAK IN THE MAJOR STOCK MARKET AVERAGES ????? NOW THAT I HAVE THE INTERNALS OUT OF THE WAY AND THE REASONS WHY WE SHOULD LOOK FOR A BOUNCE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 WEEKS ( DESPITE THE FAILURE ) I WANT TO TOUCH ON LINDSEY'S 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN IN A BIT MORE DETAIL .ESSENTIALLY THE BASICS ARE THIS WHEN THE MARKET IS MOVING IN SHORT TERM SIDEWAYS MOVES YOU START TO LOOK FOR AND EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 3 PEAKS PATTERN . TYPICALLY THE TIME PERIOD FROM POINT 3 TO POINT 7 LASTS ROUGHLY 8 MONTHS TO AS LONG AS 10 MONTHS YET WHEN YOU ADD UP THE ACTUAL CALENDAR DAYS AS NOTED BY LINDSEY'S NOTES YOU GET AN AVERAGE OF 214 CALENDAR DAYS . IF WE ADD 214 CALENDAR DAYS TO THE JAN 19 2010 HIGH ( ASSUMING IT IS POINT 3 THEN YOU WOULD LOOK FOR A HIGH ON AUGUST 21 2010. ( NOTICE THE PEAK ON THE TIMING MODEL I HAVE AS AUG 26TH ? ) TO GO FURTHER . THERE IS A BOTTOM TO BOTTOM TO TOP COUNT FROM THE JULY 10 2009 LOW TO THE JAN 19 2010 HIGH ( 193 CALENDAR DAYS ) ADDING 193 CALENDAR DAYS TO JAN 19 2010 YOU GET A TARGET DATE OF SATURDAY JULY 31 2010 . ( BOTTOM JULY 10 2009 TOP JAN 19 2010 TO TOP JULY 31 2010 WHICH IS A SATURDAY ) I HAVE MENTIONED THIS BEFORE YET GOING THROUGH ALL OF IT . ILL ADD ONE LAST NOTE HERE LINDSEY HAD ANOTHER THEORY FOR LOOKING FOR HIGHS , HE STATED YOU LOOK FOR THE LOW ( TYPICALLY THE CLOSING LOW JUST BEFORE A PEAK WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY A PULLBACK , FROM THAT DATE YOU THEN COUNT FORWARD BETWEEN 104 TO 113 CALENDAR DAY AND LOOK FOR ANOTHER HIGH SURROUNDING THAT DATE , THE AVERAGE IS 107 DAYS ) APRIL 16 WAS THE CLOSING LOW FOLLOWING THE PEAK , SO COUNTING FORWARD 107 CALENDAR DAYS FROM APRIL 16TH YOU GET A TARGET DATE OF SUNDAY AUGUST 1 2010. NOW TELL ME AS YOU LOOK THOUGH MY UPDATES TIMING MODEL ECT , HOW MANY TIMES DOES THAT EARLY AUGUST PERIOD KEEP SHOWING UP ??? IT WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT TIME PERIOD OF THIS ENTIRE YEAR , I AM FAVORING IT TO BE A VERY IMPORTANT HIGH . CHARTS POSTED BELOW ON THE DOW REFLECT HOW I EXPECT THIS MARKET TO TRADE IN THE COMING MONTHS . GOOD LUCK TRADING MAY 20 SEE BELOW FOR EARLIER POSTS THE 23 STOCKS THAT MAKE UP THE OIL INDEX'S HAVE NOW SATISFIED BOTH PRICE AND TIME . NEXT WEEKS MARKET ACTION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE BULLISH SCENARIO ON THE XLE AND MOST PROBABLE THE COMMODITY SECTOR AS A WHOLE WITH OPTIONS EXPIRATION OUT OF THE WAY , WE WILL NEED TO SEE A LARGER RALLY UNFOLD NEXT WEEK . ( THIS CHART WAS LAST UPDATED MAY 8TH ,SEE BELOW )
MAY 20 NEXT WEEK WILL BE IMPORTANT A PICTURE OF A 1000 WORDS. WILL EXPLAIN ON SUNDAY. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND
XLE THIS WEEK SATISFIES TIME ON THE OIL STOCKS . 50 BUCKS SATISFIES PRICE . ( SEE MAY 8TH UPDATE BELOW )
MAY 19 COMPARISON CHARTS HAVE TO BE GIVEN ALLOT OF LEEWAY YET I HAVE TO CONSIDER THIS SINCE IT CORRELATES WITH MY OWN CYCLES WORK THE LABELING IS SHOWN ON THE CHART BELOW THIS . THE DOW SATISFIED TIME WITH TODAY'S DECLINE SO IM NOT GOING TO CHASE THIS MARKET IF IT HEADS FURTHER SOUTH . WHAT I WANT TO SHOW TODAY IS A ROUGH PATTERN WHICH FALLS WITH IN TYPICAL BULL MARKET PEAKS OF THE PAST AND IF IM WRONG WE WILL KNOW VERY SHORTLY . MY CYCLES POINT HIGHER INTO EARLY AUGUST AND THE DOW HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONSIDER IT VALID . BOTTOM LINE : I GOT LONG THE QQQQ TODAY AS THE MARKET FINALLY FILLED MY ORDER I STILL FAVOR HIGHER PRICES INTO EARLY AUGUST YET IM NOT GOING TO GET OVERLY BULLISH A DOUBLE TOP OR MINOR NEW HIGH IS WHAT IM LOOKING FOR AND THEN ILL TAKE A LARGER LONGER TERM BEARISH STANCE FROM LATE JULY EARLY AUGUST . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY : IM GOING TO LET THE OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK RUN ITS COURSE.
THE OVERLAY ABOVE IS A CLOSE ONLY CHART ( BLUE WITH THE PRESENT DOW CLOSE ONLY IN RED ) I BASE THIS LABELING FROM GEORGE LINDSEY'S SELECTED ARTICLES . THIS IS HIS WORK . A DOUBLE TOP BACK UP INTO THE LOW 11000 INTO EARLY AUGUST WOULD SATISFY MY OWN CYCLES WORK AS WELL AS THIS PRESENT COMPARISON .AND IT IS TYPICAL BULL MARKET BEHAVIOR
MAY 19 I GUESS ILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT . WENT LONG THE QQQQ TODAY ,
MAY 18 THE NASDAQ 100 POKED BELOW 1881. TYPICALLY A REVERSAL FROM A KEY LEVEL SHOULD SHOW SOME STRENGTH TODAY'S BOUNCE LOOKED PRETTY SAD . THIS LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR A MOVE TO JUST BELOW THE PRIOR DAYS LOW TOWARDS 1869.53. THIS CORRELATES WITH ROUGHLY 46 ON THE QQQQ WHICH IS WHERE MY INITIAL BUY IN POINT WAS . I LEFT THE ORDER STANDING TODAY WHICH WAS NOT FILLED . THIS IS BECOMING A DANGEROUS MARKET . THAT SAID IM STICKING TO MY BUY LEVEL
THE SPX HAS SUPPORT BELOW YESTERDAYS LOW IN THE 1106-1090 AREA. THIS RANGE IS ALL I CAN GIVE THIS INDEX FOR SUPPORT . ANYTHING BELOW THERE AND ILL HAVE TO THROW IN THE TOWEL ON THE BULLISH SCENARIO. THERE IS A MINOR TOP TO BOTTOM TO BOTTOM COUNT WHICH SHOULD HAVE ENDED TODAY. THIS LEAVES TOMORROW AS A MUST BE BULLISH DAY . IF THE MARKET WAS TO GAP DOWN ON THE OPEN YOU WOULD BUY THE OPEN WITH A STOP JUST BELOW WHAT EVER LOW WAS MADE IN THE FIRST 35 MINUTES OF TRADING . THAT WILL BECOME THE KEY LEVEL GOING FORWARD ( ASSUMING A GAP DOWN ) A GAP UP WOULD ARGUE TODAY'S LOWS ARE THE KEY LEVEL AND WILL MATTER GOING FORWARD. BOTTOM LINE : THIS MARKET IS NOW AT ITS MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT . A MOVE UP INTO MAY 24TH MAY 27TH IS WHAT IM EXPECTING . GOOD LUCK TRADING MAY 18 THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL BE IMPORTANT GOING FORWARD THIS CHART IS A 1 MINUTE CHART OF THE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE ON THE NYSE THE COUNT CAN BE CONSIDERED A LEADING DIAGONAL , 1 MINUTE CHARTS ARE NOT AS RELIABLE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS YET THE 5 WAVE COUNT IS A BIT CONCERNING AT THIS JUNCTURE . THIS IS VERY SHORT TERM YET IS CALLING FOR A BOUNCE INTO THE LAST 30 MINUTES OF THE TRADING DAY . TOMORROW WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DAY FOR THE BULLISH CASE
NASDAQ 100 THE COUNT IS POSSIBLY A 3 WAVE MOVE WHICH WOULD BE A B C X A B C AND ALSO 1 2 3 TRIANGLE 4 AND 5 . A MOVE MUCH LOWER THE WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS IS THE RANGE OF 1886.37-1881.16 .A MOVE BELOW 1881 WOULD BE A BEARISH SIGN. A BOUNCE BACK ABOVE 1911 IS NEEDED INTO THE CLOSE . BOTTOM LINE : THE TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE BULLS AND BEARS CONTINUES AND WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL CONTINUATION DOWN . ( SEE NOTES BELOW )
MAY 18 NEXT WEEK HAS SOME IMPORTANCE IN REGARDS TO THE SWING HIGH BACK IN LATE DEC 2007. ALSO NOTE TIMING MODEL. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO SEE THE MARKET HOLD UP IF MY CYCLE HIGH DUE IN AUGUST IS GOING TO HOLD TRUE . I DID NOT GET FILLED ON THE QQQQ 47 CALLS YET I WISH I HAD . THE 2 YEAR CYCLE TURNS UP STRONGLY IN EARLY JUNE YET WE SHOULD SEE THIS MARKET HEAD HIGHER INTO THE NEXT TURN DATE OF MAY 24TH 27TH . THIS CHART BELOW IS BASED ON GEORGE LINDSEY'S TIME SPANS OF BULL AND BEAR MARKETS . I HAVE ADDED A FEW BOTTOM TO BOTTOM TO TOP COUNTS TO IT ALONG WITH OTHER EQUAL TIME COUNTS . NOTICE THE CLUSTER OF TIME SURROUNDING THE WEEKS OF AUG 2 AND AUG 9 ??. THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH A 2 YEAR CYCLE PEAK AND IS IN MY OPINION THE MOST IMPORTANT TIME PERIOD OF THIS ENTIRE YEAR . THIS TIME PERIOD IF THE MARKET IS PUTTING IN A TOP WOULD BE THE IDEAL END POINT FOR THE CYCLICAL BULL MARKET WHICH BEGAN IN MARCH 2009. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IM LOOKING FOR THE END OF THE WORLD OR DOW 3000. JUST LOOKING FOR A DECLINE TO RETRACE THE MOVE FROM MARCH 2009 . ILL GO INTO THE DETAILS AS THEY UNFOLD YET IM STARTING TO THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DON'T GO TO A NEW HIGH WE SHOULD STILL RE TEST THE HIGH MADE 2 WEEKS AGO . LASTLY : GOLD TYPICALLY HAS A CYCLE LOW IN AUGUST , I DO NOT NORMALLY FIGHT THE SEASONAL BIAS IN ANY COMMODITY, HOWEVER I AM FIGHTING THE SEASONAL THIS YR WITH RESPECT TO MY BULLISH BIAS IN SLV . KNOWING THE RISKS IN ANY TRADE WE TAKE IS IMPORTANT AND THERE IS A SEASONAL RISK IN THE METALS MARKETS . YET IM GOING TO HANG ONTO THE TRADE BASED ON MY OWN CYCLES INTO AUGUST . IF PROVEN WRONG THEN I WILL BE ADDING TO THE TRADE IN EARLY AUGUST . I WILL NOT TAKE AN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BEARISH TRADE ON THE STOCK INDEX'S UNTIL AUGUST . BOTTOM LINE : I DO NOT FIGHT MY OWN CYCLES WORK REGARDLESS OF MARKET ACTION , UNLESS I HAVE CONFLICTING MATHEMATICAL CYCLE TURN DATES . TO DATE I HAVE TO STICK TO AUGUST FOR THE MAJOR TURN OF THE YEAR. ( THINK I HAVE MADE MY POINT ). MY OPINION MIND YOU BUT NOT GOING TO CHANGE MY MIND .
MAY 16 PLACING ORDERS THIS MORNING TO BUY THE JUNE 47 QQQQ CALLS IF THE QQQQ TRADES AT 46.00. INTEND TO HOLD SLV INTO AUGUST . MAY 15 PLEASE RE READ , THE INDICATORS SECTION WHICH WAS LAST UPDATED ON APRIL 17TH MINOR DETAILS ASIDE , I HAVE TO CALL THE RECENT PEAK THE TOP OF A 5 WAVE MOVEMENT. THIS WOULD IMPLY WE ARE IN A DOWNTREND . USING TIME THOUGH I STILL DO NOT THINK I WANT TO BE OVERLY BEARISH AT THIS JUNCTURE . RN ELLIOTT DESCRIBED WHAT HE TERMED AN IRREGULAR TOP . THE BASICS ARE YOU GET 1 2 3 FOLLOW BY A DOWN B UP TO A NEW HIGH AND C DOWN WHICH IS LABELED WAVE 4. THEN YOU GET WAVE 5 TO THE UPSIDE . WHAT WOULD HAVE TO TRANSPIRE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS A B WAVE TOP FOLLOWED BY 5 WAVES DOWN WHICH WOULD BE CONSIDERED A WAVE 2 OR A LARGER B WAVE THAT IS WITH IN A MUCH LARGER A B C RALLY FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOWS. USING GEORGE LINDSEY'S INVERTED 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN THE GUIDELINE IS ,ONCE YOU GET TO POINT 23 YOU THEN LOOK FOR A MOVE BACK TO POINT 10 . WHILE THE DOW HAS CERTAINLY COME CLOSE AND THE WAVE COUNT CERTAINLY ALLOWS FOR A DECLINE , IM JUST NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE . THERE ARE SEVERAL BULLISH CYCLES THAT ARE NOW BEGINNING WHICH RUN INTO EARLY AUGUST . SHOWN ON THIS CHART ARE 2 DIFFERENT TIME COUNTS WHICH POINT TO JULY 31 WHICH IS A SATURDAY . 10495 IS NOW IMPORTANT SUPPORT AS IS THE FEB LOWS AT 9830 . IF THESE LEVELS DO GET BROKEN I WILL EXCEPT THAT I AM WRONG BUT IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EARLY AUGUST TIME PERIOD . THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHAT I CONSIDER THE MOST IMPORTANT CYCLE OF THIS ENTIRE YEAR . THE BAND OF THIS TIME ZONE RUNS FROM JUNE 10TH INTO AUG 3RD. BOTTOM LINE : THIS MARKET IS OVERSOLD AND ENTERING SEVERAL CYCLES THAT ARE SIMILAR TO THE OCT 2008-JAN 2009 TIME PERIOD , THE DIFFERENCE THOUGH IS WE ARE ENTERING A LONGER TERM CYCLE PEAK AND NOT A LONGER TERM CYCLE LOW . I WOULD EXPECT THE MARKET TO BECOME MORE BI POLAR IN THE COMING DAYS AND WEEKS ,YET NET NET , MOST LIKELY SIDEWAYS AND NO REAL TREND.
10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE I HAVE MENTIONED MANY TIMES THIS INDICATOR TEND TO RUN INTO A RANGE OF PLUS 600 TO MINUS 1000 WHEN IT COMES INTO ITS LOWER RANGE YOU LOOK FOR BOTTOMS WHEN IT RUNS INTO IT'S UPPER RANGE YOU LOOK FOR TOPS . NOT EVERY TIME WILL THIS WORK PERFECTLY BUT IT TENDS TO WORK MUCH MORE THEN IT FAILS SO IT IS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO WHEN YOU ARE NEAR A TURN DATE AND LOOKING FOR A MARKET REVERSAL . ON MAY 7TH THIS INDICATOR CLOSED JUST BELOW MINUS 800 WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE NORM BY ANY MEANS . TO ADD TO THIS ,THIS INDICATOR PEAKED ON MARCH 9TH AND MADE A LOWER HIGH ON APRIL 15TH AS THE STOCK MARKET WAS MAKING HIGHER HIGH'S . THIS WAS THE BEARISH DIVERGENCE THAT WAS THE TRIGGER TO THE DECLINE . MAY 13 BEING A TRADER MEANS AT TIMES YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SET UP. THIS IS A SMALL EXAMPLE OF WHAT THE SET UP LOOKS LIKE ON A WEEKLY DOW CHART . ASK YOURSELF WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TOP IN 2007 COMPARED TO NOW ??? WE STILL DO NOT HAVE THE BEARISH DIVERGENCE SET UP IN PLACE AT THIS TIME . FOR THIS REASON ALONG WITH MY TIMING MODEL ABOVE . I STILL FAVOR HIGHER PRICES INTO EARLY AUGUST . THE RECENT DECLINE WENT MUCH FURTHER THEN I ANTICIPATED YET IN DOING SO WE NOW HAVE THE INITIAL DROP IN THE INDICATORS NOW WE WANT TO SEE THE MARKET GRIND BACK UP TO A NEW HIGH AS THE INDICATORS FAIL TO DO SO . ONCE WE SEE THIS TECHNICAL SET UP TAKE PLACE THEN WE ADOPT TIMING TO IT AND POSITION OURSELVES FOR A FAIRLY LENGTHY DECLINE INTO MAY 2011. I STILL DON'T THINK WE WANT TO HAVE A BEARISH BIAS AT THIS JUNCTURE OTHER THAN FOR VERY SHORT TERM TRADING ONLY . GOOD LUCK TRADING . BOTTOM LINE : I WAS LOOKING FOR THE DOW TO FALL INTO THE 10720 AREA INTO MAY 11 13TH AS OF THE CLOSE TODAY . WE ARE JUST A BIT ABOVE THAT . I DO REALIZE THE DROP TO 9800 WAS MORE THEN I WAS CALLING FOR , YET THE CYCLE WAS POINTING DOWN THE MARKET FELL NOW THE CYCLES ARE POINTING UP SO I LOOK HIGHER . IM NOT ABOUT TO TRY TO EXPLAIN AWAY THE SIMPLICITY OF THAT . MAY 11 SILVER CONTINUES TO RISE , IM INTENDING TO LET MY OPTIONS RUN REGARDLESS OF THE SILVER MARKET . THE OVER ALL INDEX'S SHOULD BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A RUN BACK UP TO TEST THE HIGHS IF NOT EXCEED THEM . THAT SAID WE SHOULD BE SEEING MANY DIVERGENCES BEGIN TO SET UP FOR A TOP WHICH IS DUE IN EARLY AUGUST . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE THURSDAY GOOD LUCK TRADING MAY 8 IM WORKING ON THIS WEEKENDS UPDATE NEXT WEEK IS THE CYCLE LOW DATE . SEE TIMING MODEL ABOVE KEEP AN EYE ON THE OIL STOCK INDEX'S THIS WEEK IF IM CORRECT ON MY ASSESSMENT WE SHOULD BE ABOUT TO BEGIN A STRONG RALLY IN STOCKS WITH IN THE XOI INDEX. THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE , YOU MIGHT WANT TO GO OUT IN BOTH PRICE AND TIME WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY AND JUST LET THEM GO . EXAMPLE LOOK OUT AS FAR AS JAN 2011 USING STRIKES AT LEAST 10 PERCENT OUT OF THE MONEY . IF IM RIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS CYCLE THEN WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE A HUGE MOVE . IF IM WRONG WELL YOUR RISK IS LIMITED . THIS CHART IS 23 OIL AND GAS STOCKS THAT TEND TO MOVE THE INDEX. XLE THE SETUP USING THE XLE WOULD BE TO BE A BUYER JUST BELOW 50 AT THE 49.80 LEVEL ( WHICH MUST HOLD ) . THIS LEVEL IS THE 50 PERCENT RETRACEMENT LEVEL FROM THE RECENT HIGHS TO THE MARCH 2009 LOWS . TYPICALLY THIS LEVEL IS SUPPORT . TO ADD TO THIS WE HAVE A WAVE COUNT OF A B C WHICH IS ALSO LABELED ( A ) TRIANGLE ( B ). THE UPSIDE PROJECTION WOULD BE FROM 50 BUCKS TOWARDS 72 IN 2 EQUAL MOVES . BOTTOM LINE : I HAVE SHOWN THE MATH FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 17TH USING THE STOCKS THAT TEND TO MOVE THE OIL AND GAS INDEX'S USING A GEORGE LINDSEY TIMING TECHNIQUE. TO ADD TO THIS MY OWN CYCLES ARE CALLING FOR A LOW NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MAY 11TH 13TH . THIS INDEX HAS BEEN IN A SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EXPANDING TRIANGLE . THE OPPORTUNITY IS PRESENTING ITSELF FOR A CONTINUATION TO THE UPSIDE .
MAY 4 ILL START WITH A SIMPLE , IT'S ABOUT TIME . THE SHORT TERM BEARISH CYCLE RUNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK INTO MAY 11 13TH THE DOW HAS SUPPORT RIGHT HERE WITH THE NEXT LOWER LEVEL IN THE 10724-10707 PRICE RANGE . ONCE THIS BEARISH CYCLE ENDS ILL BE LOOKING FOR A 5TH WAVE BACK TO THE UPSIDE . I WILL BE LOOKING TO EXIT MY MAY QQQQ 48 PUTS IN THE COMING DAYS .
QQQQ I CANT RULE OUT A COMPLEX WAVE 4 AT THIS JUNCTURE . IDEALIZED PRICE FOR THIS 4TH WAVE IS JUST BELOW 47.83 AND INTO THE 47.38-47.23 PRICE RANGE . I ENTERED THIS TRADE WAY TO EARLY AND I CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO HANG ONTO IT WAY TO LATE . I INTEND TO EXIT THIS TRADE IN THE COMING DAYS
SILVER HAS BEEN DECLINING WITH THE STOCK MARKET . FOR NOW IM GONG TO STAY WITH MY BULLISH TRADE ON SLV AND WILL LOOK TO ADD TO THAT BULLISH STANCE IN MID MAY . IM HAVING PROBLEMS WITH MY SHORT TERM SLV CHART TONIGHT . THE CONTINUOUS SILVER FUTURES CHART HAS IMPORTANT SUPPORT IN THE 17.49-17.27 PRICE RANGE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY . GOOD LUCK TRADING
APRIL 30 DOW THE DOWNWARD PRESSURE TODAY STILL HAS NOT GIVEN US A WEEKLY REVERSAL PATTERN YET THAT MAY CHANGE COME MONDAYS MARKET ACTION . I INTEND TO STICK TO MY BEARISH BIAS ON THE NASDAQ FOR NOW INTO THE MID MAY CYCLE LOW . THIS MAY OR MAY NOT DRIVE THE METALS MARKETS LOWER ALSO . BOTTOM LINE : I STILL FAVOR A DECLINE TOWARDS THE 10724 LEVEL . THAT BEING SAID WE DID NOT GET A WEEKLY REVERSAL PATTERN THIS WEEK
SILVER TODAY'S EARLY MORNING SPIKE UP IN SLV WAS CONSTRUCTIVE YET BY THE END OF THE DAY THE DOWN TURN LEAVES ME WITH A MIXED TO BEARISH WAVE COUNT .HOLDING ABOVE 18.22 KEEPS THE IMMEDIATE TREND UP . 18.06 IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL AND 17.97 IS THE MEDIUM TERM MUST HOLD LEVEL .HOW THIS FITS INTO THE SHORT TERM CYCLES CHART WITH THE DOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN .
APRIL 29 TODAY IS THE SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH DATE WHICH IS DUE ON THE DOW SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL SHOWN ABOVE . ILL START WITH SLV, THE ETF FOR SILVER THE 5 MINUTE CHART CAN BE COUNTED 2 WAYS . THE IMMEDIATE BULLISH COUNT CALLS THE 17.97 LOW A MINOR WAVE 2 OF A 3RD OF A 3RD WAVE . THIS PLACES THE WAVE 2 OF 3 LOW NEAR 18.05 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE : BREAKING BELOW 17.97 SHOULD BE CONSIDERED BEARISH HEADING DOWN TO 18.05 NEAR THE OPEN AND THEN REVERSING BACK TO THE UPSIDE AND BREAKING THROUGH 18.21 IS EXTREMELY BULLISH .
LONGER TERM SILVER HAS RESISTANCE NEAR 20 BUCKS . THIS LEVEL MUST BE TAKEN OUT TO GIVE A SOLID BUY SIGNAL . THIS IS THE MONTHLY CONTINUATION CHART OF SILVER . METALS TEND TO EXPLODE AND WHEN THEY DO THEY TEND TO GO HIGHER THEN WHAT IS CONSIDERED A NORMAL MOVE . SOLID BREAK ABOVE 20 BUCKS WOULD NORMALLY TARGET THE NEXT FIBONACCI PRICE LEVEL IN THE 22.505-26.909 LEVEL YET IN DOING SO WOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH A NEW MULTI YEAR HIGH . BOTTOM LINE : A BREAK ABOVE 20 BUCKS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BLOW OFF MOVE TO THE UPSIDE .THE 34.93 LEVEL WOULD BE A .618 EXTENSION FROM THE LOWS OF 1991 TO THE 2008 HIGHS . 511 % UP TIMES .618 = 315.798 % TIMES THE LATE 2008 LOWS OF 8.40 PLUS 8.40 ( 8.40 * 3.15798 =26.527032 + 8.4 = 34.93 ) FAILING TO GET ABOVE 20 BUCKS AND BREAKING BACK BELOW 14.65 MEANS IM WRONG AND IS BEARISH .
THE DOW BROKE ABOVE 11079 TODAY WHICH INVALIDATED A 4TH WAVE INTERPRETATION THIS LEAVES US WITH A WAVE 2 COUNT OR A NEW HIGH IS COMING SHORTLY . TODAY'S HIGHS MUST NOT BE BROKEN OR WE ALREADY SAW THE COMPLETED 4TH WAVE WHICH ALSO IMPLIES MY SHORT TERM CYCLES WORK IS COMPLETELY WRONG . LONGER TERM IM LOOKING FOR A MAJOR PEAK IN EARLY AUGUST 2010 IF TODAY MARKED THE HIGH OF A WAVE 2 AND OR ( B ) WAVE THEN THE MARKET MUST FALL RIGHT FROM THE OPEN ON FRIDAY . THE DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE WOULD BE THE 10905 TO 10724 PRICE LEVEL . BOTTOM LINE : SO FAR THE DOW HAS RALLIED IN ONLY 3 WAVES OFF OF THE RECENT LOWS IN DOING THIS WE HAVE ALSO FAILED TO GET A CONFIRMED WEEKLY REVERSAL EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN A HIGHER HIGH AND A LOWER LOW FOR THE WEEK THE FAILURE TO CLOSE BELOW LAST WEEKS LOW HAS TO BE CONSIDERED A BULLISH SIGN . THE DOW WOULD NEED TO CLOSE ON FRIDAY ( TOMORROW AT 10977.84 TO GIVE A WEEKLY REVERSAL SELL SIGNAL ) THAT IS 189.48 POINTS BELOW TODAY'S CLOSE . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE BRIEF FOLLOWING FRIDAYS CLOSE . GOOD LUCK TRADING
APRIL 28 THE DOW WOULD COMPLETE 5 WAVES DOWN WITH A FURTHER DECLINE TOWARDS 10902. THIS IMPLIES TODAY'S HIGH AT 11079 HOLDS. THERE IS NO REASON FOR THIS LEVEL TO BE EXCEEDED IF WE ARE IN A 4TH WAVE . BOTTOM LINE : STICKING TO MY BEARISH BIAS FOR NOW INTO MID MAY . I DID TAKE A SMALL BULLISH POSITION IN SILVER TODAY.
APRIL 28 TAKING A SMALL BULLISH STANCE ON SILVER I INTEND TO ADD TO THIS IF THE PRICE DROPS FURTHER
APRIL 27 IT APPEARS WAVE 4 IS FINALLY HERE . ILL ADMIT FIGHTING THIS 3RD WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT . SUPPORT FOR WAVE 4 IS IN THE TIGHT RANGE OF 10721.92-10714.45 THIS IS WHERE A .382 PRICE RETRACEMENT OF WAVES 1 THOUGH 3 AND A .50 PRICE RETRACEMENT OF WAVE 3 COME TOGETHER WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A 4TH WAVE TARGET ZONE . ADDITIONALLY A .382 TIME RETRACEMENT OF WAVE 3 TARGETS THE WEEK OF MAY 17 . SO FAR THIS WEEK THE DOW HAS MADE A HIGHER HIGH ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGH AND A LOWER LOW BELOW LAST WEEKS LOW . A CLOSE BELOW LAST WEEKS LOW IS NOW NEEDED TO GIVE US A WEEKLY REVERSAL BAR . THIS IS ALL SHORT TERM BEARISH . BOTTOM LINE : MY BIAS IS WE ARE HEADING LOWER INTO THE MID MAY CYCLE LOW PERIOD IN WHAT IS LABELED WAVE 4. ONCE WAVE 4 IS COMPLETE I WILL BE LOOKING FOR WAVE 5 UP INTO MID JUNE TO EARLY AUGUST INTO THE 11590-11623 AREA . ONCE WAVE 5 IS COMPLETE I WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DECLINE TO UNFOLD INTO MID 2011 WHICH SHOULD CORRECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE ENTIRE RALLY FROM THE MARCH 2009 BOTTOM. A STOCK TO FOLLOW WOULD BE APPLE WHICH IS IN A MONTHLY 5TH WAVE FROM ITS 1997 1998 LOWS . A MOVE FROM THE LOW TO MID 300'S BACK TO 90 BUCKS WILL BE EXPECTED . FOR NOW THOUGH IM CONTINUING TO TRADE ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF MONEY UNTIL WE GET INTO THE EARLY AUGUST CYCLE HIGH . MY LAST TRADE WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE A LOSS. ( SEE TRADE LOG ABOVE ) ILL BE HEADING BACK TO WORK SATURDAY AND WILL POST MY ROUGH SCHEDULE ONCE I HAVE DETAILS ABOUT WHERE ILL BE ECT... NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE FRIDAY . GOOD LUCK TRADING
APRIL 25 IM AT THE AIRPORT FLYING HOME , MY FLIGHT GOT DELAYED WHICH WILL LEAVE ME DELAYED UPDATING THIS SITE DUE TO THE NEXT FLIGHT WHICH WILL NOW BE A SHORT RUN FROM ONE PLANE TO THE NEXT IF THAT MAKES SINCE . THE CHART BELOW IS THE BROAD MARKET INDEX'S ALL ADDED TOGETHER . AS OF FRIDAYS CLOSE THIS MEASURE OF THE STOCK MARKET AVERAGES ARE NOW TESTING A CONFLUENCE OF TREND LINES . THESE TREND LINES INCLUDE THE DOWN TREND WHICH BEGAN AT THE TOP IN 2007 AS WELL AS THE UP TREND FROM SEVERAL HIGH'S OF LAST YEAR. ADDITIONALLY WE ARE INTO THE R1 RESISTANCE FOR THE YEAR . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY . SORRY BUT THERE BOARDING MY PLANE .
APRIL 23 ILL START WITH THE WEEKLY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW. THIS IS BASED ON 81 1/2 YEARS HISTORY . THERE WAS A 2 YEAR PERIOD WHEN THIS INDICATOR WENT ABOVE 2.40 . LEAVING THAT OUT FOR NOW AND LOOKING BACK IN HISTORY THOUGH THE LEVEL OF 2.38 IS RARE ENOUGH OCT 8 1945 ( 2.387 ) SEPT 10 1951( 2.374 ) JAN 5 1959 ( 2.392 ) AUG 10 1987 ( 2.380 ) NOV 25 1996 ( 2.380 ) THIS PAST WEEK THIS INDICATOR CLOSED AT APRIL 19 2010 ( 2.366 ) . WOULD IT BE PRUDENT TO CONSIDER THIS MARKET JUST A BIT STRETCHED TO THE UPSIDE ?? THIS CHART SHOWS OVER 65 YEARS OF READINGS WITH THE DATES ( THE MONDAY OF THE WEEK ) WHAT WE NEED TO DO IS SIMPLY LOOK BACK IN HISTORY AND SEE WHAT HAS HAPPEND FOLLOWING THESE DATES .
APRIL 22 IM STILL OF THE OPINION THAT WE ARE EITHER IN A WAVE 4 OR WE ARE ENTERING WAVE 4 . I HAVE TO MANY INDICATORS THAT SHOW OVERBOUGHT READINGS AND MANY CYCLES POINTING TOWARDS MID MAY FOR A CYCLE LOW . FOR THESE REASONS IM REMAINING SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM BEARISH AND INTEND TO INCREASE MY BEARISH STANCE ONCE WE GET INTO THE LARGER CYCLE HIGH DUE IN EARLY AUGUST . NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE SUNDAY EARLY MONDAY GOOD LUCK TRADING APRIL 19 ITS EARLY IN THE DAY STILL AND IM POSTING THIS CHART TO SHOW HOW IM LOOKING AT THE NASDAQ 100 WE SHOULD BE IN A 4TH WAVE WHISH SHOULD LAST THROUGH OUT NEXT WEEK AND MOST LIKELY INTO MID MAY . A SIMPLE A B C DECLINE WOULD TAKE THIS INDEX DOWN TOWARDS THE 1915 AREA LAST WEEKS LOW AT 1986.83 NEEDS TO BE TAKEN OUT BEFORE FRIDAY THIS WEEK TO GIVE US A WEEKLY REVERSAL BAR . ONCE WAVE 4 IS COMPLETE ILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER 5 WAVE MOVEMENT BACK TO A NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR IN FINAL WAVE 5 UP . ONCE THIS 5TH WAVE FINALLY FINISHES UP ILL BE LOOKING FOR A DECLINE TO FOLLOW THAT WILL RETRACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE ENTIRE RALLY THAT BEGAN IN MARCH 2009. THE INTERNALS OF THE MARKET SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AND MANY STOCKS SHOULD BE BEGINNING THERE INITIAL DECLINE PHASE NOW . THE MARKET SHOULD SHOW LESS AND LESS PARTICIPATION ON THE RALLIES THAT FOLLOW . BOTTOM LINE : THE LARGER BROAD MARKET SHOULD BE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF A LARGER BEARISH TREND AND YET THE OVERALL INDEX'S SHOULD HOLD UP
APRIL 17 I CLEARED OUT MANY OLD FILES TODAY I ALSO UPDATED THE INDICATORS AND NASDAQ INDICATORS SECTIONS ILL FINISH THIS UPDATE SUNDAY YET HAVE SOME NOTES POSTED HERE TODAY AS A REFERENCE TO BLEND WITH MY BEARISH BIAS SHORT TERM AND LONGER TERM . 9 WEEKLY BARS UP SUPPORT FOR MINOR WAVE 4 IS 10789.28 THERE IS A 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW DUE MAY 11 TH AND A SHORT TERM CYCLE LOW DUE MAY 13TH ( SEE TIMING MODEL ABOVE ) PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER ( SEE INDICATORS AND NASDAQ INDICATORS ) IM LOOKING FOR AN EXTENDED DECLINE INTO MID MAY . THIS MAY TURN INTO A A SIDEWAYS TRIANGLE FORMATION OR SOMETHING MUCH MORE BEARISH . IT IS HARD TO CALL AT THIS JUNCTURE. ( MY BIAS IS A TRIANGLE )
THIS CHART IS JUST THE CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGE MOVES PER DAY . THE PRESENT FORMATION IS CALLING FOR A DECLINE IN POINT E THIS SHOULD ALSO CORRELATE WITH A LOW POINT IN THE DOW FROM THIS LOW WE SHOULD SEE A RALLY WHICH WILL DRIVE STOCKS HIGHER INTO THE JUNE AUGUST CYCLE PEAK. E WAVES ARE TYPICALLY SHORTER THEN WAVE C THIS IMPLIES A CUMULATIVE DECLINE OF LESS THAN 5 PERCENT FROM PRESENT LEVELS
WEEKLY OSCILLATOR THIS IS 22 PLUS YEARS OF HISTORY ON THIS INDICATOR . WHAT TO CHECK IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED FOLLOWING THE DATES NOTED . THIS IS ALL WEEKLY AUG 10 1987 AUG 7 1989 FEB 20 1996 NOV 25 1996 JUNE 16 1997 MAY 14 2007 APRIL 5 2010 SEE YOU SUNDAY FOR THE WRAP UP
FOR QUESTION OR COMMENTS notifyme@tradersaffiliates.com IF YOU WANT NOTIFICATION OF UPDATES WHEN THEY ARE PUBLISHED FEEL FREE TO WRITE ME AT THE EMAIL ADDRESS ABOVE .
THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING -PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. WHILE I DO MY BEST TO KEEP AHEAD OF THE MARKET AND ITS MOVES . THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN I AM COMPLETELY WRONG . PLEASE USE YOUR OWN DISCRESSION WHEN TRADING AND USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LOSSES
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