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UPDATED: MAY 31 2009

WITH SO MANY INDICATORS OUT THERE I FIGURED I WOULD START OFF WITH WHAT I USE : IF YOUR LIKE ME YOU HAVE LOOKED ALL OVER THE INTERNET AND HAVE FOUND NOTHING :

THE BASICS , 

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE  MEASURES THE DIFFERENCE OF ADVANCING ISSUES MINUS DECLINING ISSUES  ON THE NYSE SHOWN BELOW IS A 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE . THIS INDICATOR TRADES IN A RANGE BETWEEN PLUS 600 TO MINUS 1000 . ON OCTOBER 9TH 2008 THIS INDICATOR MADE A NEW MULTI YEAR LOW AND FROM THIS LOW MADE A NEW MULTI YEAR HIGH ON DEC 8TH 2008 . THIS IMPLIES A NEW CYCLE BEGAN ON OCT 9TH 2008 .

MAY 31 2009

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE TURNED DOWN FROM ITS MARCH 23RD HIGH . THIS IS NOW 

PUTTING IN PLACE THE BEARISH DIVERGENCES YOU LOOK FOR WHEN LOOKING FOR A BEARISH 

SET UP TO TRADE UPON . THERE IS A TIME LINE NEAR JUNE 19TH TO KEEP AN EYE ON . FROM THIS 

TIME FRAME WE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOK FOR THIS INDICATOR TO TURN TO THE DOWNSIDE .

MARCH 29

THE TIMING DATES ON THIS CHART ARE BASED ON GEORGE LINDSAY'S TOP TO TOP 

COUNTS . THIS INDICATOR SHOULD DECLINE AND DIVERGE OR CONFIRM WHAT 

EVER THE STOCK MARKET DOES . THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY 

WITH THE CYCLE OF DEC 8TH 2008 TO JAN 8TH 2009 . IF THIS IS GOING TO HOLD 

TRUE THEN THE NEXT TURNS DATE ON MONDAY MARCH 30TH WOULD BEGIN 

A 6 TRADING DAY RISE INTO APRIL 4TH . SHORT TERM MONDAY MARCH 30TH 

IS A KEY DATE FOR THE REVERSAL , TUESDAY WOULD HAVE TO BE AN UP DAY 

FOR THIS TO CONTINUE .

APRIL 10 

STOCKS MOVED UPWARDS FROM THE MARCH 30TH LOW THIS INDICATOR PEAKED

APRIL 3RD AND HAS BEEN DIVERGING AS THE STOCK MARKET HAS RISEN TO NEW HIGHS

THIS INDICATOR SHOULD NOW TURN DOWN INTO APRIL 25TH AND SHOULD DRIVE STOCK

PRICES LOWER .

 

 

60 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THE 60 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE HISTORICALLY PEAKS FROM JUST ABOVE 150 TO 350 . FROM EACH TIME 

THIS INDICATORS HAS BEEN UP TO THIS LEVEL FROM 1995 THE STOCK MARKET HAS MADE AN IMPORTANT TOP 

THE HISTORIC LOWS ARE MINUS 400 . I HAVE LABELED THIS CHART TO REFLECT A CHANGE IN MARKET DIRECTION.  THIS INDICATOR MADE A VERY IMPORTANT 5TH WAVE BOTTOM ON NOV 21 2008 . THE NEXT MAJOR TURN DATE ON THIS INDICATOR IS JUNE 2009 WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL BE UP AROUND THE 141 LEVEL OR HIGHER. THIS LEAVES THE STOCK MARKET WITH A BULLISH BIAS .

DEC 28 ( SEE NOTES ABOVE )

MAY 31

MY BULLISH BIAS AS NOTED ABOVE HAS PROVEN CORRECT YET THE 140 LEVEL HAS BEEN BLOWN OUT 

AND WE ARE NOW TESTING ALL TIME HIGHS NOT SEEN SINCE JUNE 2003 . 

THE TURN DATE THOUGH HAS NOT CHANGED JUNE 18-24TH SHOULD BRING IN SOME SORT OF HIGH 

ON THIS INDICATOR ( THIS IS BECOMING BEARISH FOR THE STOCK MARKET )

 

NYSE UP VOLUME MINUS DOWN VOLUME 

10 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE 

MAY 31 2009

THIS INDICATOR IS NOW TOPPING ( BEARISH THE STOCK MARKET )

MARCH 29 2009

THIS INDICATOR IS SLOW , ON MARCH 27TH THIS INDICATOR IS NOW INTO ONCE OF ITS MOST

OVERSOLD READINGS OF THE PAST YEAR ,.

APRIL 10 

THIS INDICATOR IS STILL BULLISH DESPITE THE SHORTER TERM BEARISH PICTURE ON 

THE 10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE .

 

 

THIS SECOND INDICATOR I LIKE FOR SHORT TERM . IT IS A SIMPLE 5 DAY SUM OF THE DAILY CLOSING TRIN . A CLOSE BELOW 4.00 IS TYPICALLY SEEN NEAR MARKET TOPS AND A CLOSING HIGH NEAR 6.00 IS TYPICALLY SEEN NEAR MARKET BOTTOMS IN UP TRENDS HIGHER  READINGS ARE SEEN IN DOWNTRENDS 7.00 TO 8.00 ARE NOT UNUSUAL.

CURRENTLY  THIS MODEL IS  OVERSOLD

 SOFTWARE PROBLEM YET NOTING THE WAY TO READ THIS , 

MAY 31 2009

READING IS 5.86 ( TECHNICALLY OVERSOLD )

 

THIS NEXT INDICATOR IS GOOD FOR FORECASTING LONG TERM OVER BOUGHT AND OVERSOLD LEVELS IN THE STOCK MARKET . A CLOSE ABOVE 1.00 AFTER A READING BELOW 1.00 GIVES A SELL SIGNAL . A BUY SIGNAL IS GIVEN ON A CLOSE BELOW 1.40 AFTER CLOSING ABOVE 1.40. THIS MODEL IS CURRENTLY  .  

AN OVERSOLD BUY SIGNAL WAS GIVING MAY 22 2009

MAY 31 

THIS INDICATOR IS STILL ON A BUY SIGNAL , LOOK FOR A READING DOWN TO 1.00 BEFORE CONSIDERING

TAKING A BEARISH POSITION 

11 WEEK  TRIN

THIS INDICATOR ACTUALLY GAVE AN OVERBOUGHT READING APRIL 13 AND IS NOW 

BEGINNING TO GIVE A BEARISH SIGNAL .

MAY 31 2009

OLD CHART FROM MARCH 15TH 2008

FROM JUNE 17 ABOVE UPDATE

PRIOR UPDATE ON THIS INDICATOR 

55 DAY TRIN 

DEC 28 

THIS INDICATOR IS EXTREME OVERSOLD 

MAY 31 2009

THIS INDICATOR IS NOT YET EXTREME OVERBOUGHT YET IT IS WARNING OF A REVERSAL

TO THE DOWNSIDE ON THE STOCK MARKET . ( WATCH THE 10 DAY TRIN FOR SHORTER TERM )

 

 MY SENTIMENT INDICATOR VERSUS THE SPX ( SP 500 ) AVE  ( REF MONTHLY SENTIMENT )

THIS IS EXTREMELY OVERSOLD AND TURNING UP ( MARCH 29 2009 )

UPDATED APRIL 10  2009

 

 

OEX SENTIMENT .

BASICS OF THIS INDICATOR ARE THIS , ONCE THIS INDICATOR CLOSES BELOW 8.00

IT GIVES AN OVERSOLD BUY SIGNAL , ONCE IT THEN CLOSES AT OR ABOVE 8.00

IT GIVES A REPEAT BUY SIGNAL . IS IS NOW RISING FROM A 14 YEAR EXTREME OVERSOLD 

READING

CHART UPDATED MARCH 29 2009

IT IS TO SOON TO CALL FOR A MONTHLY REVERSAL IN TERMS OF SENTIMENT.

IF THE DOW CAN MANAGE TO CLOSE NEAR 8000 - 8222 THEN THIS MONTHLY SENTIMENT 

CHART WOULD MOST LIKELY MAKE A NEW MONTHLY HIGH AND SIGNAL A REVERSAL 

IN THE MINDS OF TRADERS 

 

THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND USE THESE INDICATORS AS A GUIDELINE WITH OWN YOUR OWN TRADING SYSTEM . WHILE THESE INDICATORS HAVE HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR ME . NOTHING IS PERFECT AND PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS 

LASTLY WHEN NOTHING SEEMS TO BE WORKING AND YOUR IN NEED OF A BREAK FROM TRADING . GO HERE AND RELAX HAVE SOME FUN AND LET THE MARKET GO FOR A WHILE. THIS IS AN EASY PROGRAM TO FOLLOW 

 


 

 

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